## % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

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Lacepiece23

Posts: 1024
Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2011 1:10 pm

### Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Hutz_and_Goodman wrote:
ndirish2010 wrote:You can't predict your grades. Assume you'll be median everywhere, because this is the most likely outcome.

This is really untrue. People who are way above or way below both medians (so if medians are 3.5/165, being 3.1/155 or 3.9/172) do not have an equal likelihood of getting median. But recognize that there is nonetheless noise in the data, and either of the people above have a possibility of getting above median grades, although the latter person has a much better chance.

It is much more realistic to say this: if you are at both medians (GPA/LSAT), expect to have median grades. If you are at both 75%, expect to be around top quarter. If you are at both 25th%, expect to be around bottom quarter. This is not to say that this will definitely happen, but this is a much better estimate than for everyone to assume median.

Good thing this didn't apply for me I would have been bottom 5%

tfer2222

Posts: 374
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2011 9:20 pm

### Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Lacepiece23 wrote:
Hutz_and_Goodman wrote:
ndirish2010 wrote:You can't predict your grades. Assume you'll be median everywhere, because this is the most likely outcome.

This is really untrue. People who are way above or way below both medians (so if medians are 3.5/165, being 3.1/155 or 3.9/172) do not have an equal likelihood of getting median. But recognize that there is nonetheless noise in the data, and either of the people above have a possibility of getting above median grades, although the latter person has a much better chance.

It is much more realistic to say this: if you are at both medians (GPA/LSAT), expect to have median grades. If you are at both 75%, expect to be around top quarter. If you are at both 25th%, expect to be around bottom quarter. This is not to say that this will definitely happen, but this is a much better estimate than for everyone to assume median.

Good thing this didn't apply for me I would have been bottom 5%

ditto. actually worked out to be the exact opposite.

cahwc12

Posts: 942
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 4:49 pm

### Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Hutz_and_Goodman wrote:
ndirish2010 wrote:You can't predict your grades. Assume you'll be median everywhere, because this is the most likely outcome.

This is really untrue. People who are way above or way below both medians (so if medians are 3.5/165, being 3.1/155 or 3.9/172) do not have an equal likelihood of getting median. But recognize that there is nonetheless noise in the data, and either of the people above have a possibility of getting above median grades, although the latter person has a much better chance.

It is much more realistic to say this: if you are at both medians (GPA/LSAT), expect to have median grades. If you are at both 75%, expect to be around top quarter. If you are at both 25th%, expect to be around bottom quarter. This is not to say that this will definitely happen, but this is a much better estimate than for everyone to assume median.

Hutz_and_Goodman wrote:What kind of luck have people had with 1L SAs? I got crazy lucky/was very surprised to end up in the top ten people in my class, so now I'm trying to figure out how many applications to send and where to send because I think I may have a decent chance at one. Im applying to every OCI firm as well as twenty or so Vault/NLJ250 firms in my state. At the same time, I have a lot of reading to do for class (and other stuff; as we all do) that I'm not really sure how to allocate time.

(Btw I go to a T40).

Rahviveh

Posts: 2332
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 12:02 pm

### Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

cahwc12 wrote:
Hutz_and_Goodman wrote:
ndirish2010 wrote:You can't predict your grades. Assume you'll be median everywhere, because this is the most likely outcome.

This is really untrue. People who are way above or way below both medians (so if medians are 3.5/165, being 3.1/155 or 3.9/172) do not have an equal likelihood of getting median. But recognize that there is nonetheless noise in the data, and either of the people above have a possibility of getting above median grades, although the latter person has a much better chance.

It is much more realistic to say this: if you are at both medians (GPA/LSAT), expect to have median grades. If you are at both 75%, expect to be around top quarter. If you are at both 25th%, expect to be around bottom quarter. This is not to say that this will definitely happen, but this is a much better estimate than for everyone to assume median.

Hutz_and_Goodman wrote:What kind of luck have people had with 1L SAs? I got crazy lucky/was very surprised to end up in the top ten people in my class, so now I'm trying to figure out how many applications to send and where to send because I think I may have a decent chance at one. Im applying to every OCI firm as well as twenty or so Vault/NLJ250 firms in my state. At the same time, I have a lot of reading to do for class (and other stuff; as we all do) that I'm not really sure how to allocate time.

(Btw I go to a T40).

For real. I'm very happy for this guy but he's basically dropped into every thread telling us 0L's that we can predict our grades and we should always go to a top regional and gun for the top 10%. Talk about extrapolating way too much from your own experience (and counting your chickens before they hatch - don't you have another semester left?)

Ruxin1

Posts: 1275
Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:12 pm

### Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

ChampagnePapi wrote:
cahwc12 wrote:
Hutz_and_Goodman wrote:
ndirish2010 wrote:You can't predict your grades. Assume you'll be median everywhere, because this is the most likely outcome.

This is really untrue. People who are way above or way below both medians (so if medians are 3.5/165, being 3.1/155 or 3.9/172) do not have an equal likelihood of getting median. But recognize that there is nonetheless noise in the data, and either of the people above have a possibility of getting above median grades, although the latter person has a much better chance.

It is much more realistic to say this: if you are at both medians (GPA/LSAT), expect to have median grades. If you are at both 75%, expect to be around top quarter. If you are at both 25th%, expect to be around bottom quarter. This is not to say that this will definitely happen, but this is a much better estimate than for everyone to assume median.

Hutz_and_Goodman wrote:What kind of luck have people had with 1L SAs? I got crazy lucky/was very surprised to end up in the top ten people in my class, so now I'm trying to figure out how many applications to send and where to send because I think I may have a decent chance at one. Im applying to every OCI firm as well as twenty or so Vault/NLJ250 firms in my state. At the same time, I have a lot of reading to do for class (and other stuff; as we all do) that I'm not really sure how to allocate time.

(Btw I go to a T40).

For real. I'm very happy for this guy but he's basically dropped into every thread telling us 0L's that we can predict our grades and we should always go to a top regional and gun for the top 10%. Talk about extrapolating way too much from your own experience (and counting your chickens before they hatch - don't you have another semester left?)

There's a great thread where someone 4.0'd first semester and got bottom of curve pwned second semester and ended up at median, hubris at its finest.

005618502

Posts: 2577
Joined: Thu May 06, 2010 10:56 pm

### Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

BluePurgatory wrote:
Icculus wrote:
grapefruits wrote:
ndirish2010 wrote:You can't predict your grades. Assume you'll be median everywhere, because this is the most likely outcome.

False.

What do you refer to?

You should always assume you'll be at median because that is where the vast number of grades fall.

What is the problem here?

Edit: Looking at your profile you seem to be an 0L, so why don't you wait until you actually get to law school before engaging in topics you know nothing about.
I disagree... Sure, from a statistical standpoint it's clear that the majority of grades fall around the median, but it isn't impossible to predict one's grades on a curve. Obviously LSAT scores has been shown to be unreliable, but that's likely because the LSAT is testing a very specific set of skills, and also due to the fact that the difference between a 173 and a 170 is often just dumb luck on a few questions. Measuring myself against the hypothetical category of "Other 0Ls", based on the skills used in law school, I would say I'd be near the top of the class at Gonzaga (used simply because that's the undergrad I'm currently at) and probably around 60-70th percentile at a lower-t14 school. I'm obviously in no position to say for certain because I'm also a 0L, but it seems like it isn't impossible to predict whether one will be in the top, middle, or bottom third (arbitrary approximation) of one's class.

Are you kidding me... Wow

Special LOL at the 60-70th percentile guess at a lower T-14

laxbrah420

Posts: 2720
Joined: Fri Aug 12, 2011 1:53 am

### Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

laxbrah420 wrote:Also I go to law school. I was below 25% gpa and below 50% lsat. I don't do much work. I TLS a lot. And I'm above median. So boom.

005618502

Posts: 2577
Joined: Thu May 06, 2010 10:56 pm

### Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

laxbrah420 wrote:
laxbrah420 wrote:Also I go to law school. I was below 25% gpa and below 50% lsat. I don't do much work. I TLS a lot. And I'm above median. So boom.

Haha, okay.

Below the median LSAT and above median GPA. I dont study much and I was top 10-15%... based on LSAT being a "predictor" I should have been at or below median.

Honestly there is just no way to know how you will do. Even after doing well, I wonder if I will keep it up or if everyone will figure out what they are doing and crush me this semester. (plus i cant stand con law, so thats a median or worse grade)

Icculus

Posts: 1413
Joined: Tue Mar 02, 2010 12:02 am

### Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

AssumptionRequired wrote:
laxbrah420 wrote:
laxbrah420 wrote:Also I go to law school. I was below 25% gpa and below 50% lsat. I don't do much work. I TLS a lot. And I'm above median. So boom.

Haha, okay.

Below the median LSAT and above median GPA. I dont study much and I was top 10-15%... based on LSAT being a "predictor" I should have been at or below median.

Honestly there is just no way to know how you will do. Even after doing well, I wonder if I will keep it up or if everyone will figure out what they are doing and crush me this semester. (plus i cant stand con law, so thats a median or worse grade)

This is what else people don't realize. After 1st semester some people who did poorly figure out what they did wrong, correct for it, and do beeter, which means someone who did well first semester probably didn't do as well second semester. Because of the way the curve works, not everyone can get better grades semester 2. I think 0Ls really have a fundamental lack of udnerstanding of how harsh the curve really is. I mean two exams could be the exact same in terms of content, and the one that is organized better and is easier to follow could get an extra point and be the last A- and then the poorly organized exam would be the first B+ even though both exams are "correct."

The number one thing that determines where you will end up on the curve is your ability to take a law school exam. Someone who never reads, never goes to class, and doesn't study or take a practice exam will end up at the bottom, but as law school is generally filled with intelligent, educated students who are all interested in beating the curve those people are few and far between which is why the "I will work harder" mantra is flawed. I'm not sure there is any way to explain to non-law students who are that stubborn the realities of law school grading.

Hutz_and_Goodman

Posts: 1545
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2012 10:42 am

### Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

ChampagnePapi wrote:
cahwc12 wrote:
Hutz_and_Goodman wrote:
ndirish2010 wrote:You can't predict your grades. Assume you'll be median everywhere, because this is the most likely outcome.

This is really untrue. People who are way above or way below both medians (so if medians are 3.5/165, being 3.1/155 or 3.9/172) do not have an equal likelihood of getting median. But recognize that there is nonetheless noise in the data, and either of the people above have a possibility of getting above median grades, although the latter person has a much better chance.

It is much more realistic to say this: if you are at both medians (GPA/LSAT), expect to have median grades. If you are at both 75%, expect to be around top quarter. If you are at both 25th%, expect to be around bottom quarter. This is not to say that this will definitely happen, but this is a much better estimate than for everyone to assume median.

Hutz_and_Goodman wrote:What kind of luck have people had with 1L SAs? I got crazy lucky/was very surprised to end up in the top ten people in my class, so now I'm trying to figure out how many applications to send and where to send because I think I may have a decent chance at one. Im applying to every OCI firm as well as twenty or so Vault/NLJ250 firms in my state. At the same time, I have a lot of reading to do for class (and other stuff; as we all do) that I'm not really sure how to allocate time.

(Btw I go to a T40).

For real. I'm very happy for this guy but he's basically dropped into every thread telling us 0L's that we can predict our grades and we should always go to a top regional and gun for the top 10%. Talk about extrapolating way too much from your own experience (and counting your chickens before they hatch - don't you have another semester left?)

For what it's worth, I have been saying this on TLS since probably 6 months before school started. And it's not based on my own experience, really. It's based on having done research at my school about how people with scholarships did grades-wise (asking the school for data, and finding the rest). I think anyone who believes there is no correlation between GPA/LSAT (and thus scholly \$) and grades in law school is kind of out of their mind. My personal opinion of T14 v. T1 with \$\$\$\$ is that there is considerable risk both ways, but for people considering the latter route it's important for rational people to announce loudly: "No, if you accept a huge amount of merit based scholarship to attend a school where you are above both 75th percentiles, you do not have the same chance as anyone else of being median. That is simply untrue."

Of course there are people who will end up median or below, for a lot of reasons (laziness, family tragedy) including the fact that undergrad gpa and LSAT are far from perfect predictors. At my school I don't want to release exact figures, but many more than 10% of the people with huge scholarships ended up Order of the Coif (which is top 10%).

Rahviveh

Posts: 2332
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 12:02 pm

### Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Hutz_and_Goodman wrote:"No, if you accept a huge amount of merit based scholarship to attend a school where you are above both 75th percentiles, you do not have the same chance as anyone else of being median. That is simply untrue." [/size].

We're not talking about getting median though. Its the chances of getting in the top 10-15% which is what you need at many T1's for biglaw.

laxbrah420

Posts: 2720
Joined: Fri Aug 12, 2011 1:53 am

### Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Think about how many more supplements and tutoring you can afford if you accept merit based scholarships. Do you guys even use logic?

bk1

Posts: 20072
Joined: Sun Mar 14, 2010 7:06 pm

### Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Nobody is arguing that your odds aren't better than those of the median student at your school (because statistically that is at least slightly true), they are saying that the difference is not large enough to be worth counting on.

dingbat

Posts: 4975
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2012 9:12 pm

### Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Hutz_and_Goodman wrote:--ImageRemoved--

uvabro

Posts: 405
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2012 9:44 pm

### Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

wait so are you really saying that if you took a median harvard student, and put them in cooley they'd still be median? did you see the valedictorian? i agree that schools like BU vs. Harvard won't matter because it's 2 questions. But there is a legitimate IQ difference between 175 and 145... a pretty substantial one. Everyone in the top 20s has pretty much the same IQ. What ya'll are arguing is that if you put a Harvard student in a law school with a class of students with profoundly mentally-retarded people who can't read english odds are they'd be median, and that seems not that likely.

cinephile

Posts: 3464
Joined: Sun Jul 18, 2010 3:50 pm

### Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

uvabro wrote:wait so are you really saying that if you took a median harvard student, and put them in cooley they'd still be median? did you see the valedictorian? i agree that schools like BU vs. Harvard won't matter because it's 2 questions. But there is a legitimate IQ difference between 175 and 145... a pretty substantial one.

Is there really, though? Both someone with a 145 and a 175 are geniuses. You don't need to be more of a genius. Every extra bit of genius adds less and less to your life.

uvabro

Posts: 405
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2012 9:44 pm

### Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

cinephile wrote:
uvabro wrote:wait so are you really saying that if you took a median harvard student, and put them in cooley they'd still be median? did you see the valedictorian? i agree that schools like BU vs. Harvard won't matter because it's 2 questions. But there is a legitimate IQ difference between 175 and 145... a pretty substantial one.

Is there really, though? Both someone with a 145 and a 175 are geniuses. You don't need to be more of a genius. Every extra bit of genius adds less and less to your life.

not all 175s are geniuses. all 145s are not geniuses. 100% of them.

cinephile

Posts: 3464
Joined: Sun Jul 18, 2010 3:50 pm

### Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

uvabro wrote:
cinephile wrote:
uvabro wrote:wait so are you really saying that if you took a median harvard student, and put them in cooley they'd still be median? did you see the valedictorian? i agree that schools like BU vs. Harvard won't matter because it's 2 questions. But there is a legitimate IQ difference between 175 and 145... a pretty substantial one.

Is there really, though? Both someone with a 145 and a 175 are geniuses. You don't need to be more of a genius. Every extra bit of genius adds less and less to your life.

not all 175s are geniuses. all 145s are not geniuses. 100% of them.

We're talking about IQs right, not LSAT scores?

empyreanrrv

Posts: 170
Joined: Sat Dec 22, 2012 2:49 pm

### Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Talking about the IQ difference between the people with LSAT scores ranging from 175 to 145.

laxbrah420

Posts: 2720
Joined: Fri Aug 12, 2011 1:53 am

### Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

empyreanrrv wrote:Talking about the IQ difference between the people with LSAT scores ranging from 175 to 145.

Are you sure?

Crowing

Posts: 2633
Joined: Fri Feb 10, 2012 4:20 pm

### Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

I doubt he means 175 IQs which are so absurdly rare that they're really not worth considering for any purposes.

cinephile

Posts: 3464
Joined: Sun Jul 18, 2010 3:50 pm

### Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Crowing wrote:I doubt he means 175 IQs which are so absurdly rare that they're really not worth considering for any purposes.

Yeah, I guess I was confused by the wording. But I still don't think a person with a 145 LSAT is necessarily less intelligent, they could just be a non-English speaker.

Hutz_and_Goodman

Posts: 1545
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2012 10:42 am

### Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

dingbat, I've lost all respect for you. I'm just going to stop posting on this topic. I've tried on TLS to raise this issue of a very viable way to approach law school, but I'm sick and tired of dealing with idiots like you. GL everyone.

dingbat

Posts: 4975
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2012 9:12 pm

### Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Hutz_and_Goodman wrote:dingbat, I've lost all respect for you. I'm just going to stop posting on this topic. I've tried on TLS to raise this issue of a very viable way to approach law school, but I'm sick and tired of dealing with idiots like you. GL everyone.

star fox

Posts: 20786
Joined: Fri Feb 01, 2013 4:13 pm

### Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

uvabro wrote:wait so are you really saying that if you took a median harvard student, and put them in cooley they'd still be median? did you see the valedictorian? i agree that schools like BU vs. Harvard won't matter because it's 2 questions. But there is a legitimate IQ difference between 175 and 145... a pretty substantial one. Everyone in the top 20s has pretty much the same IQ. What ya'll are arguing is that if you put a Harvard student in a law school with a class of students with profoundly mentally-retarded people who can't read english odds are they'd be median, and that seems not that likely.

Sure, if you wanna compare Harvard to Cooley I'm sure it'll be different. But that's not really relevant. Someone who gets into Harvard should never go to Cooley under any circumstance. The question is relevant for people who are debating between T14 and lower ranked T1 schools. In that case, the average intelligence difference between students is probably negligible enough to not rely on finishing top 10 % at the T1.