% in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

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BluePurgatory
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% in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Postby BluePurgatory » Mon Feb 11, 2013 1:22 am

So I'm definitely interested in biglaw, and my biggest priority in choosing a school is employment prospects. My question is when one looks at the percentages of students placed into biglaw firms it seems like its obvious that your best chance of getting into biglaw would be just go to the school with the best percentages, but how important is the gap in academic competitiveness between schools? It seems safe to assume that, generally, if a school has, say, 40% of JDs placed into biglaw firms, the vast majority of those students will be from the top 50-60% of the class. Is it considerably more difficult to place in the top half of school A that is ranked a few places higher than school B?

Also, on an unrelated note, the only schools I've heard from so far are UCLA and USC who both gave me pretty incredible scholarships; I just wanna confirm, biglaw prospects aren't great in non-Berkeley/Stanford west coast schools right?

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Crowing
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Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Postby Crowing » Mon Feb 11, 2013 1:26 am

i think the consensus is that there is some predictability based on entering gpa/lsat but that the correlation is weak enough that you should never use it to make decisions.

will you have a better chance of finishing toward the top of your class at a TTTT vs. at a T14? probably. but are you likely to perform much better at UCLA than at a T14? doubtful.

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ndirish2010
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Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Postby ndirish2010 » Mon Feb 11, 2013 2:24 am

You can't predict your grades. Assume you'll be median everywhere, because this is the most likely outcome.

09042014
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Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Postby 09042014 » Mon Feb 11, 2013 2:47 am

The drop in competitiveness is nowhere near as big as the drop in job placement ability. At least between T14 to T1. Rayiner and I ran teh numbers once. Difference in median LSAT only makes a medicare difference in what your class rank would be. I think we found like 20% difference between Harvard and a generic T1.

There might be some room for arbitrage between T1 and well placing T2's, even the well placing T2's usually have decent LSAT/GPA averages.

grapefruits
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Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Postby grapefruits » Mon Feb 11, 2013 2:10 pm

ndirish2010 wrote:You can't predict your grades. Assume you'll be median everywhere, because this is the most likely outcome.


False.

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Icculus
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Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Postby Icculus » Mon Feb 11, 2013 2:16 pm

grapefruits wrote:
ndirish2010 wrote:You can't predict your grades. Assume you'll be median everywhere, because this is the most likely outcome.


False.


What do you refer to?

Because of the curve you cannot predict your grades.

You should always assume you'll be at median because that is where the vast number of grades fall.

What is the problem here?

Edit: Looking at your profile you seem to be an 0L, so why don't you wait until you actually get to law school before engaging in topics you know nothing about.

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Nickg415
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Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Postby Nickg415 » Mon Feb 11, 2013 2:23 pm

I have heard that lower ranked schools are more competitive since there are fewer big law positions going to its graduates.

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JamesDean1955
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Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Postby JamesDean1955 » Mon Feb 11, 2013 2:31 pm

Icculus wrote:
grapefruits wrote:
ndirish2010 wrote:You can't predict your grades. Assume you'll be median everywhere, because this is the most likely outcome.


False.


What do you refer to?

Because of the curve you cannot predict your grades.

You should always assume you'll be at median because that is where the vast number of grades fall.

What is the problem here?

Edit: Looking at your profile you seem to be an 0L, so why don't you wait until you actually get to law school before engaging in topics you know nothing about.


I just read your post and it made me curious (I'm not a heavily math oriented person so idk much when it comes to these things) - approximately what % of students at a T14 do you think will be at median? And what % will be above median, and what % below median?

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tfer2222
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Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Postby tfer2222 » Mon Feb 11, 2013 2:38 pm

JamesDean1955 wrote:
Icculus wrote:
grapefruits wrote:
ndirish2010 wrote:You can't predict your grades. Assume you'll be median everywhere, because this is the most likely outcome.


False.


What do you refer to?

Because of the curve you cannot predict your grades.

You should always assume you'll be at median because that is where the vast number of grades fall.

What is the problem here?

Edit: Looking at your profile you seem to be an 0L, so why don't you wait until you actually get to law school before engaging in topics you know nothing about.


I just read your post and it made me curious (I'm not a heavily math oriented person so idk much when it comes to these things) - approximately what % of students at a T14 do you think will be at median? And what % will be above median, and what % below median?



lol

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Crowing
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Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Postby Crowing » Mon Feb 11, 2013 2:44 pm

JamesDean1955 wrote:
Icculus wrote:
grapefruits wrote:
ndirish2010 wrote:You can't predict your grades. Assume you'll be median everywhere, because this is the most likely outcome.


False.


What do you refer to?

Because of the curve you cannot predict your grades.

You should always assume you'll be at median because that is where the vast number of grades fall.

What is the problem here?

Edit: Looking at your profile you seem to be an 0L, so why don't you wait until you actually get to law school before engaging in topics you know nothing about.


I just read your post and it made me curious (I'm not a heavily math oriented person so idk much when it comes to these things) - approximately what % of students at a T14 do you think will be at median? And what % will be above median, and what % below median?


180

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JamesDean1955
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Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Postby JamesDean1955 » Mon Feb 11, 2013 2:45 pm

Lol, thought y'all would enjoy that one

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BluePurgatory
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Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Postby BluePurgatory » Tue Feb 12, 2013 3:14 am

Icculus wrote:
grapefruits wrote:
ndirish2010 wrote:You can't predict your grades. Assume you'll be median everywhere, because this is the most likely outcome.


False.


What do you refer to?

Because of the curve you cannot predict your grades.

You should always assume you'll be at median because that is where the vast number of grades fall.

What is the problem here?

Edit: Looking at your profile you seem to be an 0L, so why don't you wait until you actually get to law school before engaging in topics you know nothing about.
I disagree... Sure, from a statistical standpoint it's clear that the majority of grades fall around the median, but it isn't impossible to predict one's grades on a curve. Obviously LSAT scores has been shown to be unreliable, but that's likely because the LSAT is testing a very specific set of skills, and also due to the fact that the difference between a 173 and a 170 is often just dumb luck on a few questions. Measuring myself against the hypothetical category of "Other 0Ls", based on the skills used in law school, I would say I'd be near the top of the class at Gonzaga (used simply because that's the undergrad I'm currently at) and probably around 60-70th percentile at a lower-t14 school. I'm obviously in no position to say for certain because I'm also a 0L, but it seems like it isn't impossible to predict whether one will be in the top, middle, or bottom third (arbitrary approximation) of one's class.

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Lacepiece23
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Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Postby Lacepiece23 » Tue Feb 12, 2013 3:20 am

BluePurgatory wrote:
Icculus wrote:
grapefruits wrote:
ndirish2010 wrote:You can't predict your grades. Assume you'll be median everywhere, because this is the most likely outcome.


False.


What do you refer to?

Because of the curve you cannot predict your grades.

You should always assume you'll be at median because that is where the vast number of grades fall.

What is the problem here?

Edit: Looking at your profile you seem to be an 0L, so why don't you wait until you actually get to law school before engaging in topics you know nothing about.
I disagree... Sure, from a statistical standpoint it's clear that the majority of grades fall around the median, but it isn't impossible to predict one's grades on a curve. Obviously LSAT scores has been shown to be unreliable, but that's likely because the LSAT is testing a very specific set of skills, and also due to the fact that the difference between a 173 and a 170 is often just dumb luck on a few questions. Measuring myself against the hypothetical category of "Other 0Ls", based on the skills used in law school, I would say I'd be near the top of the class at Gonzaga (used simply because that's the undergrad I'm currently at) and probably around 60-70th percentile at a lower-t14 school. I'm obviously in no position to say for certain because I'm also a 0L, but it seems like it isn't impossible to predict whether one will be in the top, middle, or bottom third (arbitrary approximation) of one's class.


This is fucking dumb and that's all I'm going to say.

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laxbrah420
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Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Postby laxbrah420 » Tue Feb 12, 2013 3:57 am

I liked that you typed all that out and didn't actually argue anything.

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laxbrah420
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Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Postby laxbrah420 » Tue Feb 12, 2013 4:00 am

Also I go to law school. I was below 25% gpa and below 50% lsat. I don't do much work. I TLS a lot. And I'm above median. So boom.

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cinephile
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Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Postby cinephile » Tue Feb 12, 2013 8:24 am

What I've found at my T30 is that while a third of the class may land biglaw, it's not the top third of the class. There is far more that goes into getting the job, like interviewing or bidding strategy or geographic ties, and it's not all about grades (although it is a lot about grades). So even if you went to a school like this and did quite well, you could be out of luck. So you ought to go to the best school possible, where it'll be more likely than not that you'll get biglaw.

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dingbat
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Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Postby dingbat » Tue Feb 12, 2013 8:37 am

BluePurgatory wrote: I disagree... Sure, from a statistical standpoint it's clear that the majority of grades fall around the median, but it isn't impossible to predict one's grades on a curve. Obviously LSAT scores has been shown to be unreliable, but that's likely because the LSAT is testing a very specific set of skills, and also due to the fact that the difference between a 173 and a 170 is often just dumb luck on a few questions. Measuring myself against the hypothetical category of "Other 0Ls", based on the skills used in law school, I would say I'd be near the top of the class at Gonzaga (used simply because that's the undergrad I'm currently at) and probably around 60-70th percentile at a lower-t14 school. I'm obviously in no position to say for certain because I'm also a 0L, but it seems like it isn't impossible to predict whether one will be in the top, middle, or bottom third (arbitrary approximation) of one's class.

based on this reasoning, I predict you'll end up bottom 60-70%

Care to explain why you're a special snowflake?

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cahwc12
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Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Postby cahwc12 » Tue Feb 12, 2013 9:05 am

grapefruits wrote:
ndirish2010 wrote:You can't predict your grades. Assume you'll be median everywhere, because this is the most likely outcome.


False.


I was excited to ask you about how your first semester grades asked ended up but then I remembered that you aren't in law school yet.

This thread from a few weeks ago is about 3 pages of his opinion being shot down by more knowledgeable posters. I'm not in law school either, but I won't pretend to know something that is consensus among those who actually have earned law school grades.


You'll notice that most of the people who believe you can heavily influence your own grades tend to be those who have never received grades for a semester in law school. You'll also find myriad posts from users who claimed to be special snowflakes and how they would beat the odds only to end up at or below median and freak out on TLS about not having a job.

At least one user appears to have possibly killed himself over the realization that he was not in fact a special snowflake.

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cinephile
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Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Postby cinephile » Tue Feb 12, 2013 9:07 am

cahwc12 wrote:
At least one user appears to have possibly killed himself over the realization that he was not in fact a special snowflake.


Not seriously, though, right?

uvabro
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Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Postby uvabro » Tue Feb 12, 2013 4:02 pm

i disagree certain things about grades can be predicted. if you're happy you're going to do better. if u get depressed in cold weather or hot weather, these things can influence it.

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JamesDean1955
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Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Postby JamesDean1955 » Tue Feb 12, 2013 4:06 pm

uvabro wrote:i disagree certain things about grades can be predicted. if you're happy you're going to do better. if u get depressed in cold weather or hot weather, these things can influence it.


Yeah, and if you eat a lot of spicy food, well, you know...

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bk1
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Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Postby bk1 » Tue Feb 12, 2013 4:09 pm

BluePurgatory wrote:I disagree... Sure, from a statistical standpoint it's clear that the majority of grades fall around the median, but it isn't impossible to predict one's grades on a curve. Obviously LSAT scores has been shown to be unreliable, but that's likely because the LSAT is testing a very specific set of skills, and also due to the fact that the difference between a 173 and a 170 is often just dumb luck on a few questions. Measuring myself against the hypothetical category of "Other 0Ls", based on the skills used in law school, I would say I'd be near the top of the class at Gonzaga (used simply because that's the undergrad I'm currently at) and probably around 60-70th percentile at a lower-t14 school. I'm obviously in no position to say for certain because I'm also a 0L, but it seems like it isn't impossible to predict whether one will be in the top, middle, or bottom third (arbitrary approximation) of one's class.

:lol:

You really think your most likely outcome at a lower T14 to be top 1/3 when you haven't even taken a single law school class? I love when this sort of hubris gets shot down by first semester 1L grades.

uvabro
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Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Postby uvabro » Tue Feb 12, 2013 4:09 pm

JamesDean1955 wrote:
uvabro wrote:i disagree certain things about grades can be predicted. if you're happy you're going to do better. if u get depressed in cold weather or hot weather, these things can influence it.


Yeah, and if you eat a lot of spicy food, well, you know...

this is true. having the runs on a final will impact ur performance. reinforcing the pt.

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Lacepiece23
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Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Postby Lacepiece23 » Tue Feb 12, 2013 10:17 pm

uvabro wrote:
JamesDean1955 wrote:
uvabro wrote:i disagree certain things about grades can be predicted. if you're happy you're going to do better. if u get depressed in cold weather or hot weather, these things can influence it.


Yeah, and if you eat a lot of spicy food, well, you know...

this is true. having the runs on a final will impact ur performance. reinforcing the pt.


had um the whole time the final i performed the best in true story.

Hutz_and_Goodman
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Re: % in BigLaw vs. Competitiveness?

Postby Hutz_and_Goodman » Tue Feb 12, 2013 10:25 pm

ndirish2010 wrote:You can't predict your grades. Assume you'll be median everywhere, because this is the most likely outcome.


This is really untrue. People who are way above or way below both medians (so if medians are 3.5/165, being 3.1/155 or 3.9/172) do not have an equal likelihood of getting median. But recognize that there is nonetheless noise in the data, and either of the people above have a possibility of getting above median grades, although the latter person has a much better chance.

It is much more realistic to say this: if you are at both medians (GPA/LSAT), expect to have median grades. If you are at both 75%, expect to be around top quarter. If you are at both 25th%, expect to be around bottom quarter. This is not to say that this will definitely happen, but this is a much better estimate than for everyone to assume median.




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