Should I be proud of breaking T14/T10?

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: Should I be proud of breaking T14/T10?

Postby Tiago Splitter » Sat Feb 02, 2013 12:42 am

pastapplicant wrote:The only difference between you and me is that I made sure I went to a school that ensured that I won't be crushed by debt.

You applied ED to NYU.

NYstate
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Re: Should I be proud of breaking T14/T10?

Postby NYstate » Sat Feb 02, 2013 1:03 am

JO 14 wrote:
MrHairyLegs wrote: I've come to see my T-14 acceptances as worthless. I'd be paying full sticker at these schools. . . .

T-14 Arithmetic. You pay $150K (tuition) to earn $1.6M over the next ten years. After taxes you wind up netting a $125K a month to pay a $20K monthly debt. All this and you do not even have to be a superstar. Just do not drop too far below median (even then you might net $70K, leaving you $50K a year after debt).


I hope you don't actually believe these numbers to be true. If so, you might want to look at those T14 UNemployment charts that Rayiner made a while ago. There is absolutely no guarantee that above median at a T14 gets you biglaw. Grades are not enough for a firm to hire you. And it is almost a certainty that you will be gone from biglaw before year 10. Hell, there have been people laid off from biglaw in their first year of practice within the past few months.

Do not count on these numbers.

Also, be sure to include interest on those loans.

Finally, be sure to calculate what happens if you end up as an unemployed 3L- these people exist even at T6 schools and certainly T14 schools. What are you going to do with your loans then?



Edit: I found the link to Rayiners thread I mentioned.
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=181723&hilit=UNemployment
Last edited by NYstate on Sat Feb 02, 2013 1:13 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Should I be proud of breaking T14/T10?

Postby NYstate » Sat Feb 02, 2013 1:07 am

JO 14 wrote:
pastapplicant wrote:Risk screwing your life for a chance to live paycheck to paycheck grinding it out in biglaw only to get fired?

You have made a number of excellent points, changing many minds here on TLS. Lawyering was just a bubble. My guess is that they will likely have to start closing down courtrooms due to the lack of attorneys. The Mercedes dealers have not seen a lawyer enter their showroom in years. Lawyers are undoubtedly the lifeblood of second hand clothing stores. Once upon a time the Yellow Pages depended on lawyers to advertise, but today you rarely see an ad for a law firm. This profession has gone the way of radio and the typewriter. It is a dead end vocation.

They really need to design a sarcasm font. Seriously.


Have you been paying attention to the current massive oversupply of lawyers at all? I mean do you have a hint of an idea what the employment market is right now? Have you seen the thread here of 3Ls who were no- offered by their SA firms and what is happening ( undeservedly) to them?
I hope you are joking here because, if not, you are scarily clueless.

NYstate
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Re: Should I be proud of breaking T14/T10?

Postby NYstate » Sat Feb 02, 2013 1:25 am

JO 14 wrote:To keep believing what you are saying. . .whatever you do, do not watch Suits or Good Wife, silly Hollywood people make it seem like attorneys live in mansions, have cool cars, go on exotic vacations, dine at 4 star restaurants, join country clubs, have platinum credit cards . . .

Try and start up a business with only $250K. Said simplistically, go get a retail job or else man up.


Oh, right, television always shows reality. Except, of course, the entire premise of Suits is not a possibility, other than that, I'm sure everything else is true. And didnt the Good Wife firm go into a re-org or something?

Here is one more pointer, in case you are serious, even ten years ago attorneys didnt have nearly the debt grads have now. And, biglaw was booming. Now, biglaw is retrenching and fighting to make a profit. Even partners are getting fired. Read the Citi/Hildebrant report. Citi is the main lender to law firms and they are telling law firms the boom days are over, the tide is out and it isn't coming back.
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/ ... visory.pdf

http://www.americanlawyer.com/PubArticl ... 0102010446

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JO 14
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Re: Should I be proud of breaking T14/T10?

Postby JO 14 » Sat Feb 02, 2013 3:08 am

It is simple. If you are attending a T14 the odds are clearly in your favor. Everyone I know received a 2L SA spot (or were asked to return to their 1L SA firm). Most are at median and serving on a secondary journal. Whether you want to call their SA firms BL or MidLaw, the compensation is nicely north of $100K. And yes, LS is hard work and the road can be stressful.

TLS has a number of threads on the math regarding income to debt ratio, including the take home pay calculator that includes taxes (30%) and tuition cost. . . end result is around $6K a month is left over. Somehow one should be able to cope.

NYstate
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Re: Should I be proud of breaking T14/T10?

Postby NYstate » Sat Feb 02, 2013 3:25 am

JO 14 wrote:It is simple. If you are attending a T14 the odds are clearly in your favor. Everyone I know received a 2L SA spot (or were asked to return to their 1L SA firm). Most are at median and serving on a secondary journal. Whether you want to call their SA firms BL or MidLaw, the compensation is nicely north of $100K. And yes, LS is hard work and the road can be stressful.

TLS has a number of threads on the math regarding income to debt ratio, including the take home pay calculator that includes taxes (30%) and tuition cost. . . end result is around $6K a month is left over. Somehow one should be able to cope.


Did you read any of the links I posted? Thanks for the info, if you meant it for me.
But, I know all this . I'm already out of school, I have a job and I have no debt because of money my father left me. I responded to your posts because you sounded clueless. You still sound clueless if you think an SA means you've got a 10 year career.

I would not agree that median at a T 14 means you will get a good biglaw or six figure income. That is way too optimistic as shown by Rayiners chart that I linked.

But I'm not really posting on TLS anymore, I made a quick return to post some important articles. ( The NY Times and atlantic pieces about why people are fleeing law in DROVES) I got enticed to respond to your series of posts because if you were serious, you were greatly distorting reality.

But good luck and I hope you get an offer from your summer firm.
Last edited by NYstate on Sat Feb 02, 2013 3:41 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Should I be proud of breaking T14/T10?

Postby manofjustice » Sat Feb 02, 2013 3:35 am

twentypercentmore wrote:There are plenty of people below median that get fine jobs, and equally people above median that don't get anything from OCI (generally because they bid stupidly). Going 250k into debt, whether it's for Stanford or Georgetown, guarantees that you'll be either immediately cutting 25k+ out of your yearly paycheck


OP, what twentypercentmore just said is the bottom line.

And that 25k+ is minimum. A lot of BigLaw lawyers have the "use everything extra to pay off my loans" mentality.

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Tom Joad
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Re: Should I be proud of breaking T14/T10?

Postby Tom Joad » Sat Feb 02, 2013 3:36 am

JO 14 wrote:It is simple. If you are attending a T14 the odds are clearly in your favor. Everyone I know received a 2L SA spot (or were asked to return to their 1L SA firm). Most are at median and serving on a secondary journal. Whether you want to call their SA firms BL or MidLaw, the compensation is nicely north of $100K. And yes, LS is hard work and the road can be stressful.

TLS has a number of threads on the math regarding income to debt ratio, including the take home pay calculator that includes taxes (30%) and tuition cost. . . end result is around $6K a month is left over. Somehow one should be able to cope.

(person with rose colored glasses on)

firstpagegrad
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Re: Should I be proud of breaking T14/T10?

Postby firstpagegrad » Sat Feb 02, 2013 6:15 am

dabbadon8 wrote:If you go to law school you may never be proud again. With each accomplishment comes another goal that you will have to strive for and possibly feel bad about not reaching... grades, biglaw, law review, law review position, clerkship, making partner, etc. "Striving is the path to the dark side. Striving leads to studying, studying leads to gunning, gunning leads to suffering." Let go of your striving you must.


:lol:

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Re: Should I be proud of breaking T14/T10?

Postby firstpagegrad » Sat Feb 02, 2013 6:28 am

manofjustice wrote:
twentypercentmore wrote:There are plenty of people below median that get fine jobs, and equally people above median that don't get anything from OCI (generally because they bid stupidly). Going 250k into debt, whether it's for Stanford or Georgetown, guarantees that you'll be either immediately cutting 25k+ out of your yearly paycheck


OP, what twentypercentmore just said is the bottom line.

And that 25k+ is minimum. A lot of BigLaw lawyers have the "use everything extra to pay off my loans" mentality.


The smart ones do. If you do land at BigLaw, the chances of making it past mid-level (3-5 years) are depressingly slim.

Basically, the whole depressing thing is a 10 year long circle. You start off with nothing, somewhere in your Junior year of college, and go nuts trying to raise your GPA and LSAT numbers to get into the best possible law school. Then you bust your ass for three more years to be top 10%, on law review (maybe even a clerkship) so you can end up at a V-100. Then you work even harder and live like a pauper so you can put all of your money towards your six-digit debt. If you are lucky, you last long enough to pay off all of your debt. Congratulations, you are back to zero. Except now you are unemployed, and you are a decade older, and you are miserable.

Of course, the above is a best-case scenario. Some people never get a job.

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Re: Should I be proud of breaking T14/T10?

Postby NYstate » Sat Feb 02, 2013 11:49 am

Tom Joad wrote:
JO 14 wrote:It is simple. If you are attending a T14 the odds are clearly in your favor. Everyone I know received a 2L SA spot (or were asked to return to their 1L SA firm). Most are at median and serving on a secondary journal. Whether you want to call their SA firms BL or MidLaw, the compensation is nicely north of $100K. And yes, LS is hard work and the road can be stressful.

TLS has a number of threads on the math regarding income to debt ratio, including the take home pay calculator that includes taxes (30%) and tuition cost. . . end result is around $6K a month is left over. Somehow one should be able to cope.

(person with rose colored glasses on)


Just one more thing to remember. Almost all of those calculations about how biglaw wil work out were made by people who had yet to actually put those budgets into practice. Further, Rayiner, who made a convincing calculation, is also an experienced engineer. If law hadn't worked out for him, he could have lived at home for a while , returned to his old career and knocked out those loans for law school. He had a solid backup plan to handle his debt. And his debt had to be less than what school is costing now.

I saw Rayiner posted in that thread about what is biglaw really like? He was explaining his method for living on less than 5 hours of sleep. Bigshrimpin' another poster from here in biglaw was already wondering how long he could take it. He had only worked a few months at that point.

And I'm going to mention again. Stealth layoffs of junior associates at 1st year and second year levels happen . They get 3 months to find another job. Biglaw is under pressure to reduce costs.

You owe it to yourself to read the Times front page article on collapsing application and the Atlantic article explaining the horrible state of employment and how schools have done nothing to respond.

(Lol at myself- I don't have time for TLS but I have an addiction. Seeing this much delusion being posted dragged me back in. )

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: Should I be proud of breaking T14/T10?

Postby Tiago Splitter » Sat Feb 02, 2013 12:32 pm

NYstate wrote:I would not agree that median at a T 14 means you will get a good biglaw or six figure income. That is way too optimistic as shown by Rayiners chart that I linked.

It doesn't guarantee it but Rayiner's chart shows you're in a pretty good spot from T-14 median. I agree with you though that JO 14 is too optimistic both in assuming one will be median and in assuming median guarantees anything.

But Rayiner is a pretty heavy proponent of paying sticker for T-14, as he did, and so I don't think that appeal to authority does much for your argument. And the fact that Rayiner gave up a good career to go to T-14 at sticker doesn't help you. His opportunity cost was quite a bit higher than the average entering student.

Having said all that if you are just trying to pull a Campos and spin every "fact" to keep people away from law school I can't blame you. The vast majority of people going shouldn't be.

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Re: Should I be proud of breaking T14/T10?

Postby JO 14 » Sat Feb 02, 2013 5:26 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:It doesn't guarantee it but Rayiner's chart shows you're in a pretty good spot from T-14 median. I agree with you though that JO 14 is too optimistic both in assuming one will be median and in assuming median guarantees anything.

But Rayiner is a pretty heavy proponent of paying sticker for T-14, as he did, and so I don't think that appeal to authority does much for your argument. And the fact that Rayiner gave up a good career to go to T-14 at sticker doesn't help you. His opportunity cost was quite a bit higher than the average entering student.

Having said all that if you are just trying to pull a Campos and spin every "fact" to keep people away from law school I can't blame you. The vast majority of people going shouldn't be.


Optimism is followed by realism. . . in the land of T14 realism usually turns out good. I would not say this if the people I knew were striking out, they’re not (most are median-ish with no LR).

In ref to Rayiner, I saw the graph. To me his “small firm [under 50 attorneys]” category is greatly misleading. There are many smaller firms (handling mega clients) paying pay six figures and are great place to work (checking a few of their sites, a notable percentage of their associates achieve partner in 4-7 years), many of these firms are located in major secondary markets (avoiding NYC’s COL). The other thing about Rayiner’s graph is that (understandably) it does not pertain to 2012 or 2013.

In skimming some of the adverse comments on this thread, I am not certain if the writers are bitter because things did not work out or if they are simply convinced that things will not work out.

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Re: Should I be proud of breaking T14/T10?

Postby bizzybone1313 » Sat Feb 02, 2013 5:46 pm

It goes back to the ridiculous price of tuition.

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JO 14
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Re: Should I be proud of breaking T14/T10?

Postby JO 14 » Sat Feb 02, 2013 6:08 pm

bizzybone1313 wrote:It goes back to the ridiculous price of tuition.

+1. So true. But if it were lower think of how many more law students we would have.

Also, having to go for a third year is irrational (at least we should have an opt out option).

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Re: Should I be proud of breaking T14/T10?

Postby 005618502 » Sat Feb 02, 2013 6:23 pm

I havent read the whole thread, but this feeling is not at all uncommon. When I was applying all I wanted was a T10, then I got it. Then I wondered the same exact thing as you (I had a really good GPA). Then I decided just to go for the T10 and try to do well. My only goal was to get 1 1L SA spot and be above median. I then got grades putting me around top 10-15% and 4 1L SA offers. Am I content? of course not, now I want to get even better grades so I can go work at any litigation boutique/firm I want. This happens to people at top schools and that is why you are where you are. You should never be "content" you should always be striving for more. Before your T10 acceptance you were probably praying for one, then you got it and all of a sudden it becomes no big deal.

You just have to remember getting into a T14 school is a big deal, most applicants only dream of it. Getting good grades is a big deal, getting into a big law firm is a big deal. These are all things that a minority of people in each group get to experience. So be happy with your acceptance, go to the school of your choice and kill it.

And someone please confirm that I am not the only weird person who thinks this way...

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Re: Should I be proud of breaking T14/T10?

Postby pastapplicant » Sat Feb 02, 2013 6:32 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:
pastapplicant wrote:The only difference between you and me is that I made sure I went to a school that ensured that I won't be crushed by debt.

You applied ED to NYU.


Yes I did, but I was very lucky to receive a big scholarship package from them despite the ED (I was naive when I applied to law school as well) plus I have money saved up from prior work experience.

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Re: Should I be proud of breaking T14/T10?

Postby WhatOurBodiesAreFor » Sat Feb 02, 2013 6:47 pm

AssumptionRequired wrote:I havent read the whole thread, but this feeling is not at all uncommon. When I was applying all I wanted was a T10, then I got it. Then I wondered the same exact thing as you (I had a really good GPA). Then I decided just to go for the T10 and try to do well. My only goal was to get 1 1L SA spot and be above median. I then got grades putting me around top 10-15% and 4 1L SA offers. Am I content? of course not, now I want to get even better grades so I can go work at any litigation boutique/firm I want. This happens to people at top schools and that is why you are where you are. You should never be "content" you should always be striving for more. Before your T10 acceptance you were probably praying for one, then you got it and all of a sudden it becomes no big deal.

You just have to remember getting into a T14 school is a big deal, most applicants only dream of it. Getting good grades is a big deal, getting into a big law firm is a big deal. These are all things that a minority of people in each group get to experience. So be happy with your acceptance, go to the school of your choice and kill it.

And someone please confirm that I am not the only weird person who thinks this way...


Just got my first (and probably only) T-10 acceptance this morning. I will probably start feeling this way soon, but with a little more perspective I must admit! :)

Your broader point should be expressed more on TLS. If you are confident and driven enough and you are a good worker, you shouldn't be too hesitant about attending a T-14.

I admit I am a 0L but the numbers just do not support the argument against T-14 at sticker.

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Re: Should I be proud of breaking T14/T10?

Postby NYstate » Sun Feb 03, 2013 12:09 am

WhatOurBodiesAreFor wrote:
AssumptionRequired wrote:I havent read the whole thread, but this feeling is not at all uncommon. When I was applying all I wanted was a T10, then I got it. Then I wondered the same exact thing as you (I had a really good GPA). Then I decided just to go for the T10 and try to do well. My only goal was to get 1 1L SA spot and be above median. I then got grades putting me around top 10-15% and 4 1L SA offers. Am I content? of course not, now I want to get even better grades so I can go work at any litigation boutique/firm I want. This happens to people at top schools and that is why you are where you are. You should never be "content" you should always be striving for more. Before your T10 acceptance you were probably praying for one, then you got it and all of a sudden it becomes no big deal.

You just have to remember getting into a T14 school is a big deal, most applicants only dream of it. Getting good grades is a big deal, getting into a big law firm is a big deal. These are all things that a minority of people in each group get to experience. So be happy with your acceptance, go to the school of your choice and kill it.

And someone please confirm that I am not the only weird person who thinks this way...


Just got my first (and probably only) T-10 acceptance this morning. I will probably start feeling this way soon, but with a little more perspective I must admit! :)

Your broader point should be expressed more on TLS. If you are confident and driven enough and you are a good worker, you shouldn't be too hesitant about attending a T-14.

I admit I am a 0L but the numbers just do not support the argument against T-14 at sticker.


What numbers are those? J/k. You don't have to trot out the numbers for me. I know I'm extremely debt averse and honestly I would never have put myself in debt for law school and my family would never have supported me doing so. So my perspective is different.

Just be sure you understand the downside and aren't blinded by the biglaw paycheck. There are plenty of T14 grads who are not getting a salary to justify the debt, just look at the number of students hired by their schools at graduation. And that doesn't include those people ho couldn't find a job to qualify for the school fellowship program. Make sure you calculate your worst case scenario and not just your biglaw budget of debt repayment. Go to the Georgetown calculator and understand what your monthly payment will be. You have th advantage of the beginnings of employment transparency use it. Understand what IBR might mean for you. You might also read the Vale of Tears thread of the no offered 3Ls. The market for lawyers is brutal, make sure you understand that as best you can.

Also, understand what a curved class means and how that despite your best effort, you might not get the grades you want.

As long as you feel well- informed about the risk and you aren't going because you are a special snowflake- then good luck to you. I hope everything works out for the best for you.

Edit: FWIW- I think applications will continue to drop significantly as more people become aware of that schools faked employment stats. As the real numbers become more available, fewer people will go. This is a year of transition so paying sticker might be foolish if demand continues to drop next year. I can't see how waiting a year would hurt you, but that is your call.

I'm back to the grind tomorrow- so if you have comments- go ahead and post, but I may not see it.

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Re: Should I be proud of breaking T14/T10?

Postby MrHairyLegs » Sun Feb 03, 2013 1:33 am

NYstate wrote:
WhatOurBodiesAreFor wrote:
AssumptionRequired wrote:I havent read the whole thread, but this feeling is not at all uncommon. When I was applying all I wanted was a T10, then I got it. Then I wondered the same exact thing as you (I had a really good GPA). Then I decided just to go for the T10 and try to do well. My only goal was to get 1 1L SA spot and be above median. I then got grades putting me around top 10-15% and 4 1L SA offers. Am I content? of course not, now I want to get even better grades so I can go work at any litigation boutique/firm I want. This happens to people at top schools and that is why you are where you are. You should never be "content" you should always be striving for more. Before your T10 acceptance you were probably praying for one, then you got it and all of a sudden it becomes no big deal.

You just have to remember getting into a T14 school is a big deal, most applicants only dream of it. Getting good grades is a big deal, getting into a big law firm is a big deal. These are all things that a minority of people in each group get to experience. So be happy with your acceptance, go to the school of your choice and kill it.

And someone please confirm that I am not the only weird person who thinks this way...


Just got my first (and probably only) T-10 acceptance this morning. I will probably start feeling this way soon, but with a little more perspective I must admit! :)

Your broader point should be expressed more on TLS. If you are confident and driven enough and you are a good worker, you shouldn't be too hesitant about attending a T-14.

I admit I am a 0L but the numbers just do not support the argument against T-14 at sticker.


What numbers are those? J/k. You don't have to trot out the numbers for me. I know I'm extremely debt averse and honestly I would never have put myself in debt for law school and my family would never have supported me doing so. So my perspective is different.

Just be sure you understand the downside and aren't blinded by the biglaw paycheck. There are plenty of T14 grads who are not getting a salary to justify the debt, just look at the number of students hired by their schools at graduation. And that doesn't include those people ho couldn't find a job to qualify for the school fellowship program. Make sure you calculate your worst case scenario and not just your biglaw budget of debt repayment. Go to the Georgetown calculator and understand what your monthly payment will be. You have th advantage of the beginnings of employment transparency use it. Understand what IBR might mean for you. You might also read the Vale of Tears thread of the no offered 3Ls. The market for lawyers is brutal, make sure you understand that as best you can.

Also, understand what a curved class means and how that despite your best effort, you might not get the grades you want.

As long as you feel well- informed about the risk and you aren't going because you are a special snowflake- then good luck to you. I hope everything works out for the best for you.

Edit: FWIW- I think applications will continue to drop significantly as more people become aware of that schools faked employment stats. As the real numbers become more available, fewer people will go. This is a year of transition so paying sticker might be foolish if demand continues to drop next year. I can't see how waiting a year would hurt you, but that is your call.

I'm back to the grind tomorrow- so if you have comments- go ahead and post, but I may not see it.


AssumptionRequired said it beautifully and I couldn't agree more. While I'm debt adverse and will be paying a huge chunk out of my pocket, my worthless liberal arts degree is shit. I guess I have to start looking at this whole scenario by asking myself 'What's the worst case scenario?":

Bachelors degree in basketweaving, looking for a job in a tough economy with unrealistic dreams of one day making 100K, and if the basketweaving factory is hiring hopefully making at most one day 60K. I'm not sure but this sounds way worse than having sizable loan payments out of a top ten law school but a chance of making a monster living in a top law firm and having a shot at living within the upper middle class, prospects not afforded at the BW factory. So while I might not be feeling super proud at the moment, I know my circumstances could be worse I suppose and in that respect, I'm content.

For all the grammar nazis: Well aware of grammar mistakes, dis waz writtin on iPhone.

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Re: Should I be proud of breaking T14/T10?

Postby XxSpyKEx » Thu Feb 07, 2013 1:18 am

MrHairyLegs wrote:
NYstate wrote:
WhatOurBodiesAreFor wrote:
AssumptionRequired wrote:I havent read the whole thread, but this feeling is not at all uncommon. When I was applying all I wanted was a T10, then I got it. Then I wondered the same exact thing as you (I had a really good GPA). Then I decided just to go for the T10 and try to do well. My only goal was to get 1 1L SA spot and be above median. I then got grades putting me around top 10-15% and 4 1L SA offers. Am I content? of course not, now I want to get even better grades so I can go work at any litigation boutique/firm I want. This happens to people at top schools and that is why you are where you are. You should never be "content" you should always be striving for more. Before your T10 acceptance you were probably praying for one, then you got it and all of a sudden it becomes no big deal.

You just have to remember getting into a T14 school is a big deal, most applicants only dream of it. Getting good grades is a big deal, getting into a big law firm is a big deal. These are all things that a minority of people in each group get to experience. So be happy with your acceptance, go to the school of your choice and kill it.

And someone please confirm that I am not the only weird person who thinks this way...


Just got my first (and probably only) T-10 acceptance this morning. I will probably start feeling this way soon, but with a little more perspective I must admit! :)

Your broader point should be expressed more on TLS. If you are confident and driven enough and you are a good worker, you shouldn't be too hesitant about attending a T-14.

I admit I am a 0L but the numbers just do not support the argument against T-14 at sticker.


What numbers are those? J/k. You don't have to trot out the numbers for me. I know I'm extremely debt averse and honestly I would never have put myself in debt for law school and my family would never have supported me doing so. So my perspective is different.

Just be sure you understand the downside and aren't blinded by the biglaw paycheck. There are plenty of T14 grads who are not getting a salary to justify the debt, just look at the number of students hired by their schools at graduation. And that doesn't include those people ho couldn't find a job to qualify for the school fellowship program. Make sure you calculate your worst case scenario and not just your biglaw budget of debt repayment. Go to the Georgetown calculator and understand what your monthly payment will be. You have th advantage of the beginnings of employment transparency use it. Understand what IBR might mean for you. You might also read the Vale of Tears thread of the no offered 3Ls. The market for lawyers is brutal, make sure you understand that as best you can.

Also, understand what a curved class means and how that despite your best effort, you might not get the grades you want.

As long as you feel well- informed about the risk and you aren't going because you are a special snowflake- then good luck to you. I hope everything works out for the best for you.

Edit: FWIW- I think applications will continue to drop significantly as more people become aware of that schools faked employment stats. As the real numbers become more available, fewer people will go. This is a year of transition so paying sticker might be foolish if demand continues to drop next year. I can't see how waiting a year would hurt you, but that is your call.

I'm back to the grind tomorrow- so if you have comments- go ahead and post, but I may not see it.


AssumptionRequired said it beautifully and I couldn't agree more. While I'm debt adverse and will be paying a huge chunk out of my pocket, my worthless liberal arts degree is shit. I guess I have to start looking at this whole scenario by asking myself 'What's the worst case scenario?":

Bachelors degree in basketweaving, looking for a job in a tough economy with unrealistic dreams of one day making 100K, and if the basketweaving factory is hiring hopefully making at most one day 60K. I'm not sure but this sounds way worse than having sizable loan payments out of a top ten law school but a chance of making a monster living in a top law firm and having a shot at living within the upper middle class, prospects not afforded at the BW factory. So while I might not be feeling super proud at the moment, I know my circumstances could be worse I suppose and in that respect, I'm content.

For all the grammar nazis: Well aware of grammar mistakes, dis waz writtin on iPhone.


I think you're wholly skipping over the "worst case scenario" in your analysis. The worst case scenario isn't having sizable loan payments out of a top ten law school AND biglaw (or a chance at biglaw, as your put it). The worst case scenario is having a quarter million in debt and being lucky to enter a profession in basketweaving (because basketweaving companies will be afraid that you're going to bail when a legal job opportunity presents itself). That is the reality for a very large number of c/o 2011 t14 grads. The best case scenario (assuming you are paying sticker) is having sizable loan payments out of a top ten law school and biglaw, which, frankly, isn't a great outcome all things considered (and also isn't a guaranteed "living within the upper middle class" paycheck for very long). Does the best case scenario beat your basketweaving scenario? Arguably (and, based on your response, it seems like you think so). But is it worth the risk that you might fall into the worst case scenario category (like a substantial number of c/o 2011 t14 grads did)? Only you can decide that. But I think NYstate's point is that you have to actually consider the worst case scenario and the likelihood you'll fall into that category, and make a rational, informed decision based on your aversion to risk (and I don't think you're doing that by considering your current situation to what happens if that "chance" at the best case scenario becomes reality).

MrHairyLegs
Posts: 34
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2013 4:17 am

Re: Should I be proud of breaking T14/T10?

Postby MrHairyLegs » Thu Feb 07, 2013 3:22 am

I think you're wholly skipping over the "worst case scenario" in your analysis. The worst case scenario isn't having sizable loan payments out of a top ten law school AND biglaw (or a chance at biglaw, as your put it). The worst case scenario is having a quarter million in debt and being lucky to enter a profession in basketweaving (because basketweaving companies will be afraid that you're going to bail when a legal job opportunity presents itself). That is the reality for a very large number of c/o 2011 t14 grads. The best case scenario (assuming you are paying sticker) is having sizable loan payments out of a top ten law school and biglaw, which, frankly, isn't a great outcome all things considered (and also isn't a guaranteed "living within the upper middle class" paycheck for very long). Does the best case scenario beat your basketweaving scenario? Arguably (and, based on your response, it seems like you think so). But is it worth the risk that you might fall into the worst case scenario category (like a substantial number of c/o 2011 t14 grads did)? Only you can decide that. But I think NYstate's point is that you have to actually consider the worst case scenario and the likelihood you'll fall into that category, and make a rational, informed decision based on your aversion to risk (and I don't think you're doing that by considering your current situation to what happens if that "chance" at the best case scenario becomes reality).


Thanks and point taken. I don't want to split hairs, but I think your assuming that a JD from T14=my basketweaving degree (if i read your post right). I would like to think a law degree from Berkeley or Virginia or Cornell, for example, is more marketable than my shitty bachelors. But yea I feel what you're saying, and being successful in life def requires the ability measuring risk and putting your assets where appropriate. At what point along the tier spectrum should a law applicant be "proud"?

Side note: I don't want to cause a riot, but a (small) part of me thinks that NYT article was catering to a group of law applicants not capable of getting into the country's top law schools--based on the school's it mentioned and dean's quoted-- (let's say T14 for arguments sake), and so while it told a scary tale of declining apps and job prospects, it's targeted audience was most but not all law applicants. Most but not all law applicants don't get into T14, let alone T10. I'm just spit ballin here.

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XxSpyKEx
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Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2006 5:48 am

Re: Should I be proud of breaking T14/T10?

Postby XxSpyKEx » Thu Feb 07, 2013 4:18 pm

MrHairyLegs wrote:
I think you're wholly skipping over the "worst case scenario" in your analysis. The worst case scenario isn't having sizable loan payments out of a top ten law school AND biglaw (or a chance at biglaw, as your put it). The worst case scenario is having a quarter million in debt and being lucky to enter a profession in basketweaving (because basketweaving companies will be afraid that you're going to bail when a legal job opportunity presents itself). That is the reality for a very large number of c/o 2011 t14 grads. The best case scenario (assuming you are paying sticker) is having sizable loan payments out of a top ten law school and biglaw, which, frankly, isn't a great outcome all things considered (and also isn't a guaranteed "living within the upper middle class" paycheck for very long). Does the best case scenario beat your basketweaving scenario? Arguably (and, based on your response, it seems like you think so). But is it worth the risk that you might fall into the worst case scenario category (like a substantial number of c/o 2011 t14 grads did)? Only you can decide that. But I think NYstate's point is that you have to actually consider the worst case scenario and the likelihood you'll fall into that category, and make a rational, informed decision based on your aversion to risk (and I don't think you're doing that by considering your current situation to what happens if that "chance" at the best case scenario becomes reality).



Thanks and point taken. I don't want to split hairs, but I think your assuming that a JD from T14=my basketweaving degree (if i read your post right). I would like to think a law degree from Berkeley or Virginia or Cornell, for example, is more marketable than my shitty bachelors. But yea I feel what you're saying, and being successful in life def requires the ability measuring risk and putting your assets where appropriate. At what point along the tier spectrum should a law applicant be "proud"?


I don't think a JD from a t14/t10 is = to your basketweaving degree at all. I went at a t10 myself, and graduated in the c/o 2011. I did a clerkship, and have a job. But a large number of my classmates weren't so fortunate. There are still people who are looking for jobs now, since graduation. And a ton who did contract work, and other BS. I'm just saying you have to really consider the likelihood (i.e. risk) that you'll go to a t14 and wind up in a worse situation than you are in now (i.e. if you don't get biglaw because you'll have $250k in debt, and a JD and will be less marketable to basketweaving companies due to flight risk). For example, if there's a over a 60% chance you'll miss biglaw (like the odds at GULC for the c/o 2011*), are you comfortable with those odds of having $250k in debt and either no job or a job that doesn't pay well enough to pay that debt back? Maybe you are. But it's just something to think about thoroughly before taking on that that kind of debt (I find the idea of taking on $250k in debt to attend law school frightening, personally).

*http://www.lstscorereports.com/?school=gulc

Side note: I don't want to cause a riot, but a (small) part of me thinks that NYT article was catering to a group of law applicants not capable of getting into the country's top law schools--based on the school's it mentioned and dean's quoted-- (let's say T14 for arguments sake), and so while it told a scary tale of declining apps and job prospects, it's targeted audience was most but not all law applicants. Most but not all law applicants don't get into T14, let alone T10. I'm just spit ballin here.


I didn't read the NYT article, but what I can say is that I went to a t10 and graduated in the c/o 2011. The only information we had at the time we went into law school was the glossy brochures t14s were providing at the time and data from the class of 2007 (since we matriculated in fall of 2008). Things were not pretty around OCI time, and being an attorney in a major market myself, I can tell you for a fact that things are still very bleak. I mean if you get biglaw through OCI and you manage to hack it for a few years, then great, you'll finally have paid off your massive amount of debt you accumulated by attending law school (and will have enough discretionary income left over to live an upper middle class lifestyle). But I can't even begin to imagine how terrible it would be to have a quarter million in debt and missing the biglaw boat. (And, believe it or not, hiring decisions are based on more than grades alone -- there is the possibility you'll have reasonable grades (e.g. top 1/3) and still strike out because you're not a "fit" for the firms you OCI with. That would be rough.)




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