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LSTfan
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Postby LSTfan » Fri Jan 04, 2013 7:41 pm

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Last edited by LSTfan on Tue Mar 12, 2013 11:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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dingbat
Posts: 4976
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2012 9:12 pm

Re: Fewer first-time takers for December exam

Postby dingbat » Fri Jan 04, 2013 7:48 pm

LSTfan wrote:First-time test takers down by 16% for December exam.

With a trend like this, why not wait a year?
because no one knows if it'll pick up next year

ajax
Posts: 278
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 9:33 pm

Re: Fewer first-time takers for December exam

Postby ajax » Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:35 pm

LSTfan wrote:First-time test takers down by 16% for December exam.

With a trend like this, why not wait a year?
dingbat wrote:
LSTfan wrote:First-time test takers down by 16% for December exam.

With a trend like this, why not wait a year?
because no one knows if it'll pick up next year


Because no one knows if they'll continue to fall off a cliff. Law school matriculants still haven't seen much of a decline, despite falling applications. Schools are just admitting people with worse stats than years prior. Therefore there will still be roughly 20000 newly minted JDs each year tha fail to find jobs that require said degree. Until the supply of labor weakens, or demand for it significantly picks up, applications will likely still decline in the years to come.

http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... ummary.asp

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stillwater
Posts: 3811
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Re: Fewer first-time takers for December exam

Postby stillwater » Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:37 pm

The conspiracy is about to be blown open. The fat cats at the ABA, LSAC and law school deans are about to find themselves out of a job.

skri65
Posts: 484
Joined: Mon Jul 16, 2012 11:07 pm

Re: Fewer first-time takers for December exam

Postby skri65 » Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:50 pm

I don't know where this guy is getting this from. LSAC hasn't released any such information about December LSAT test takers yet. Correct me if I'm wrong but I can't find anything.

dkb17xzx
Posts: 405
Joined: Wed Jan 20, 2010 6:25 pm

Re: Fewer first-time takers for December exam

Postby dkb17xzx » Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:52 pm

skri65 wrote:I don't know where this guy is getting this from. LSAC hasn't released any such information about December LSAT test takers yet. Correct me if I'm wrong but I can't find anything.

BearsGrl
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Joined: Thu Jan 05, 2012 1:40 pm

Re: Fewer first-time takers for December exam

Postby BearsGrl » Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:53 pm

stillwater wrote:The conspiracy is about to be blown open. The fat cats at the ABA, LSAC and law school deans are about to find themselves out of a job.


More and more people are becoming aware of stats, even after they go to a school, and are opting out of going to the school. Whether pro or con, I think this is a good sign.

jym_dawg
Posts: 294
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Re: Fewer first-time takers for December exam

Postby jym_dawg » Sat Jan 05, 2013 1:27 pm

skri65 wrote:I don't know where this guy is getting this from. LSAC hasn't released any such information about December LSAT test takers yet. Correct me if I'm wrong but I can't find anything.


LSAC released prelim info as part of the Dec. newsletter (said registrations were on pace to be down 15% over last Dec.) but I don't recall any specific info about first-time takers or much detail at all, really. As for this clown, he isn't credible. Follow the links - he had to make a correction to a correction because he misinterpreted (straightforward) info from October.

We'll get to see final Dec. numbers only when LSAC decides to release them. That doesn't change anything about this cycle.

Cellar-door
Posts: 370
Joined: Thu Nov 01, 2012 4:33 pm

Re: Fewer first-time takers for December exam

Postby Cellar-door » Sat Jan 05, 2013 2:05 pm

skri65 wrote:I don't know where this guy is getting this from. LSAC hasn't released any such information about December LSAT test takers yet. Correct me if I'm wrong but I can't find anything.


If you look at the earlier posts he notes that the info on OCT came from data made available to law schools but not the public. Leiter is a professor at Chicago and the other blogger Filler is an associate dean at Drexel.

dkb17xzx
Posts: 405
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Re: Fewer first-time takers for December exam

Postby dkb17xzx » Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:14 am


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dingbat
Posts: 4976
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Re: Fewer first-time takers for December exam

Postby dingbat » Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:18 am

dkb17xzx wrote:New December data:

http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... stered.asp

-15.6% change

So far number of accepted applicants and number of matriculating students have not decreased (hasn't reached 10 year low; classes of 2014 and 2013 were unusually large)

Paul Campos
Posts: 645
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Re: Fewer first-time takers for December exam

Postby Paul Campos » Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:51 am

dingbat wrote:
dkb17xzx wrote:New December data:

http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... stered.asp

-15.6% change

So far number of accepted applicants and number of matriculating students have not decreased (hasn't reached 10 year low; classes of 2014 and 2013 were unusually large)



Class of 2015 was 44,481. That's nearly 10% off the previous ten-year low. Class of 2016 will be a lot smaller than that, given that the applicant pool is down 22% over last year's numbers, which were 15% off the previous year, which were 10% off the year before that.

gman1978
Posts: 56
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2011 8:47 pm

Re: Fewer first-time takers for December exam

Postby gman1978 » Fri Jan 11, 2013 12:16 pm

Paul,

Do you have any thoughts on how this will affect 2L and 3L hiring? In other words, is the drop in applicants and decline in very strong applicants (high GPA/LSAT) likely to help mid law and big law hiring, or is it just a drop in the bucket?

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: Fewer first-time takers for December exam

Postby Tiago Splitter » Fri Jan 11, 2013 12:23 pm

Paul Campos wrote:Class of 2015 was 44,481. That's nearly 10% off the previous ten-year low.

Where do you get these numbers?

Paul Campos
Posts: 645
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Re: Fewer first-time takers for December exam

Postby Paul Campos » Fri Jan 11, 2013 12:39 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:
Paul Campos wrote:Class of 2015 was 44,481. That's nearly 10% off the previous ten-year low.

Where do you get these numbers?



http://www.legalnews.com/macomb/1370004/

To answer the question about big law hiring, the drop in law school class sizes may start having a marginal effect in a couple of years. A much bigger factor will be what's happening with big law firms of course.

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dingbat
Posts: 4976
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Re: Fewer first-time takers for December exam

Postby dingbat » Fri Jan 11, 2013 12:51 pm

Paul Campos wrote:
dingbat wrote:
dkb17xzx wrote:New December data:

http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... stered.asp

-15.6% change

So far number of accepted applicants and number of matriculating students have not decreased (hasn't reached 10 year low; classes of 2014 and 2013 were unusually large)



Class of 2015 was 44,481. That's nearly 10% off the previous ten-year low. Class of 2016 will be a lot smaller than that, given that the applicant pool is down 22% over last year's numbers, which were 15% off the previous year, which were 10% off the year before that.


10 year data

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: Fewer first-time takers for December exam

Postby Tiago Splitter » Fri Jan 11, 2013 1:07 pm

Paul Campos wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:
Paul Campos wrote:Class of 2015 was 44,481. That's nearly 10% off the previous ten-year low.

Where do you get these numbers?



http://www.legalnews.com/macomb/1370004/

To answer the question about big law hiring, the drop in law school class sizes may start having a marginal effect in a couple of years. A much bigger factor will be what's happening with big law firms of course.

Huh. Those numbers are very different from the LSAC Volume Summary. If these new ones are true, then things aren't as rosy as we thought.

Paul Campos
Posts: 645
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Re: Fewer first-time takers for December exam

Postby Paul Campos » Fri Jan 11, 2013 1:10 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:
Paul Campos wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:
Paul Campos wrote:Class of 2015 was 44,481. That's nearly 10% off the previous ten-year low.

Where do you get these numbers?



http://www.legalnews.com/macomb/1370004/

To answer the question about big law hiring, the drop in law school class sizes may start having a marginal effect in a couple of years. A much bigger factor will be what's happening with big law firms of course.

Huh. Those numbers are very different from the LSAC Volume Summary. If these new ones are true, then things aren't as rosy as we thought.


The LSAC volume summary doesn't list the matrics for the class of 2012 yet (only the total number of applicants), but the numbers have been reported to the ABA, which is what the linked article is referencing.

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: Fewer first-time takers for December exam

Postby Tiago Splitter » Fri Jan 11, 2013 1:12 pm

Paul Campos wrote:The LSAC volume summary doesn't list the matrics for the class of 2012 yet (only the total number of applicants), but the numbers have been reported to the ABA, which is what the linked article is referencing.

What I find problematic is that the linked article says 52,488 matriculated in the fall of 2010, but the Volume Summary says it was only 49,700. Either way it looks like the number of matriculants is coming down, but the peak seems to be higher than I realized.

ETA: Nevermind. Just realized I should have kept reading down the page.

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dingbat
Posts: 4976
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Re: Fewer first-time takers for December exam

Postby dingbat » Fri Jan 11, 2013 1:23 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:
Paul Campos wrote:The LSAC volume summary doesn't list the matrics for the class of 2012 yet (only the total number of applicants), but the numbers have been reported to the ABA, which is what the linked article is referencing.

What I find problematic is that the linked article says 52,488 matriculated in the fall of 2010, but the Volume Summary says it was only 49,700. Either way it looks like the number of matriculants is coming down, but the peak seems to be higher than I realized.

ETA: Nevermind. Just realized I should have kept reading down the page.

I made the same mistake and wrote out something but caught it before posting

ajax
Posts: 278
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 9:33 pm

Re: Fewer first-time takers for December exam

Postby ajax » Fri Jan 11, 2013 2:12 pm

dingbat wrote:
Paul Campos wrote:
dingbat wrote:
dkb17xzx wrote:New December data:

http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... stered.asp

-15.6% change

So far number of accepted applicants and number of matriculating students have not decreased (hasn't reached 10 year low; classes of 2014 and 2013 were unusually large)



Class of 2015 was 44,481. That's nearly 10% off the previous ten-year low. Class of 2016 will be a lot smaller than that, given that the applicant pool is down 22% over last year's numbers, which were 15% off the previous year, which were 10% off the year before that.


10 year data



LOL Dingbat




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