Georgetown VS USC

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BigZuck
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Re: Georgetown VS USC

Postby BigZuck » Fri Dec 28, 2012 2:45 am

BarbellDreams wrote:
I will definitely take the year off if I my options are looking bleak. Would Hastings with $$$$ really be a better idea than USC or Georgetown with just $$? PI/Gov jobs seem to be extremely competitive, so I'm interested in hearing your thinking. Is it just the lower risk which makes those schools more attractive, or are the PI prospects at those schools not as low as I think?


I was going on the assumption that you did not have a scholly at either school. If you are getting $$ from GULC you're likely gonna get into Boalt and I would just go there, even at sticker, over the other options. Though again, GULC with $$ likely = USC with $$$ or possibly UCLA with $$$ and basically fullrides to Davis/Hastings/Loyola. At that point all the latter become better options IMO. Really until you get your scholly info this is hard to advise on, as I was going on sticker at GULC assumption. Fullride with no stips at a school like Davis/Hastings is a pretty good bet for PI though, it would be hard to pass up for me.


Full rides at Davis/Hastings actually exist? Can you point me to your source that confirms this?

Paul Campos
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Re: Georgetown VS USC

Postby Paul Campos » Fri Dec 28, 2012 9:28 am

BigZuck wrote:
BarbellDreams wrote:
I will definitely take the year off if I my options are looking bleak. Would Hastings with $$$$ really be a better idea than USC or Georgetown with just $$? PI/Gov jobs seem to be extremely competitive, so I'm interested in hearing your thinking. Is it just the lower risk which makes those schools more attractive, or are the PI prospects at those schools not as low as I think?


I was going on the assumption that you did not have a scholly at either school. If you are getting $$ from GULC you're likely gonna get into Boalt and I would just go there, even at sticker, over the other options. Though again, GULC with $$ likely = USC with $$$ or possibly UCLA with $$$ and basically fullrides to Davis/Hastings/Loyola. At that point all the latter become better options IMO. Really until you get your scholly info this is hard to advise on, as I was going on sticker at GULC assumption. Fullride with no stips at a school like Davis/Hastings is a pretty good bet for PI though, it would be hard to pass up for me.


Full rides at Davis/Hastings actually exist? Can you point me to your source that confirms this?



You can go here https://officialguide.lsac.org/release/OfficialGuide_Default.aspx and look up what any ABA law school distributed in the previous reporting year in grants and scholarships (I believe the current data is for 2010-11 so it's a bit out of date). For Davis the data shows six scholarships of more than full tuition (this is probably a full tuition waiver plus a book stipend). Note this is for all students though, not just the 1L class. Hastings doesn't show any full tuition scholarships. Around 9% of their students are getting between half and full tuition (this means at least half to something less than full). Note that at both schools the large majority of students are paying less than sticker. The median grant at Hastings is $11,800 per year while at Davis it's $22,000. Again, keep in mind this info is now two years out of date, and both schools have raised nominal tuition a lot in that time, so the "scholarship" numbers are probably higher now.

Rule of thumb: treat sticker law school tuition as a school's opening (and therefore unacceptable) bid for your money.

Second rule of thumb: Most people shouldn't go to law school unless they can get into a school that's worth going to at sticker. And if you can get into a school that's worth going to at sticker you can get into most schools for free or close to free, some of which may be a better deal for you than the sticker-price school.

BigZuck
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Re: Georgetown VS USC

Postby BigZuck » Fri Dec 28, 2012 10:14 am

Paul Campos wrote:
BigZuck wrote:
BarbellDreams wrote:
I will definitely take the year off if I my options are looking bleak. Would Hastings with $$$$ really be a better idea than USC or Georgetown with just $$? PI/Gov jobs seem to be extremely competitive, so I'm interested in hearing your thinking. Is it just the lower risk which makes those schools more attractive, or are the PI prospects at those schools not as low as I think?


I was going on the assumption that you did not have a scholly at either school. If you are getting $$ from GULC you're likely gonna get into Boalt and I would just go there, even at sticker, over the other options. Though again, GULC with $$ likely = USC with $$$ or possibly UCLA with $$$ and basically fullrides to Davis/Hastings/Loyola. At that point all the latter become better options IMO. Really until you get your scholly info this is hard to advise on, as I was going on sticker at GULC assumption. Fullride with no stips at a school like Davis/Hastings is a pretty good bet for PI though, it would be hard to pass up for me.


Full rides at Davis/Hastings actually exist? Can you point me to your source that confirms this?



You can go here https://officialguide.lsac.org/release/OfficialGuide_Default.aspx and look up what any ABA law school distributed in the previous reporting year in grants and scholarships (I believe the current data is for 2010-11 so it's a bit out of date). For Davis the data shows six scholarships of more than full tuition (this is probably a full tuition waiver plus a book stipend). Note this is for all students though, not just the 1L class. Hastings doesn't show any full tuition scholarships. Around 9% of their students are getting between half and full tuition (this means at least half to something less than full). Note that at both schools the large majority of students are paying less than sticker. The median grant at Hastings is $11,800 per year while at Davis it's $22,000. Again, keep in mind this info is now two years out of date, and both schools have raised nominal tuition a lot in that time, so the "scholarship" numbers are probably higher now.

Rule of thumb: treat sticker law school tuition as a school's opening (and therefore unacceptable) bid for your money.

Second rule of thumb: Most people shouldn't go to law school unless they can get into a school that's worth going to at sticker. And if you can get into a school that's worth going to at sticker you can get into most schools for free or close to free, some of which may be a better deal for you than the sticker-price school.


Thank you for this Professor. People on this site frequently say things like "Don't go there, go to X school on a full ride" but this confirms that that is not always possible. Schools need to actually give out full rides with a predictable frequency before that is even possible. When it comes to these particular schools it is obvious that only special snowflakes get such hefty scholarships.

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Elston Gunn
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Re: Georgetown VS USC

Postby Elston Gunn » Sat Dec 29, 2012 4:39 pm

wbrother wrote:
Elston Gunn wrote:Wait, you believe that you will have a 50% chance of graduating unable to to get a JD-required job at all and having A QUARTER MILLION DOLLARS OF DEBT, and you think it's a good idea to go to law school???


Those are the facts right? Nationally only 55% of graduates from ABA law schools were able to secure JD-required jobs. It's higher at USC and Georgetown, but obviously sticker at either of these schools is a very bad idea. I think I need to clarify that I haven't YET received scholarship info. I'm not going at sticker.


You don't have the facts right, since you're lumping in Cooley grads with GULC grads, but the fact that you believed that and still think law school school is a good idea (even at $150K or whatever) is a good indication that you haven't really thought this through.

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wbrother
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Re: Georgetown VS USC

Postby wbrother » Sat Dec 29, 2012 7:53 pm

Elston Gunn wrote:
wbrother wrote:
Elston Gunn wrote:Wait, you believe that you will have a 50% chance of graduating unable to to get a JD-required job at all and having A QUARTER MILLION DOLLARS OF DEBT, and you think it's a good idea to go to law school???


Those are the facts right? Nationally only 55% of graduates from ABA law schools were able to secure JD-required jobs. It's higher at USC and Georgetown, but obviously sticker at either of these schools is a very bad idea. I think I need to clarify that I haven't YET received scholarship info. I'm not going at sticker.


You don't have the facts right, since you're lumping in Cooley grads with GULC grads, but the fact that you believed that and still think law school school is a good idea (even at $150K or whatever) is a good indication that you haven't really thought this through.

I think I clearly stated that Georgetown and USC's stats are higher than the national average. Are you saying you would advise against Georgetown and USC with a 1/3rd tuition scholarship?

jstr00az
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Re: Georgetown VS USC

Postby jstr00az » Tue Jan 01, 2013 3:48 pm

wbrother wrote:
Elston Gunn wrote:
wbrother wrote:
Elston Gunn wrote:Wait, you believe that you will have a 50% chance of graduating unable to to get a JD-required job at all and having A QUARTER MILLION DOLLARS OF DEBT, and you think it's a good idea to go to law school???


Those are the facts right? Nationally only 55% of graduates from ABA law schools were able to secure JD-required jobs. It's higher at USC and Georgetown, but obviously sticker at either of these schools is a very bad idea. I think I need to clarify that I haven't YET received scholarship info. I'm not going at sticker.


You don't have the facts right, since you're lumping in Cooley grads with GULC grads, but the fact that you believed that and still think law school school is a good idea (even at $150K or whatever) is a good indication that you haven't really thought this through.

I think I clearly stated that Georgetown and USC's stats are higher than the national average. Are you saying you would advise against Georgetown and USC with a 1/3rd tuition scholarship?


LST says GULC had a 63 percent employment rate in JD-required jobs for the class of 2011, 68 percent for 2010. 2012 is expected to be as bad or worse than 2011.

Only 1/3rd of the class reported a salary of $160,000, which would justify a debt of $150k to $200k. Cost of Living in DC is going to be between $30k a year. Tuition is $47k. Let's assume you only pay 2/3rds of that. That's $30k. $30k plus $30k for living is about $60k. $60k times 3 years is $180k plus the interest for the debt you carry during the three years is going to bring you at about $200k

When you graduate, you have a one-third chance according to current statistics of getting that $160k job, and a 2/3rds chance of getting job any job at all that requires a JD. No informed commentator believes that legal market is going to improve, and some believe it will get worse - at least for recent grads.

$160k is not what you will make, because it will be taxed at, roughly, 40 percent. I say roughly because it could be a bit more, could be a bit less. Let's assume you take home $96,000 as a ballpark figure.

If you are in DC or any similarly situated city where you can earn the $160k, you're looking at at least $1200 a month in rent. That's $14,000 a year (and we're talking about some shared living arrangement) because rents in DC, Arlington, Alexandria are considerably higher than that. So let's just assume another $100 a month in utilities. Let's assume $15,000.

Plus you've got $200,000 in law school debt. So you're paying another $2,300 or so a month. That's $27,000. Plus the living expenses leaves you with $42,000 in money you don't actually get.

Right off the top that of that $96,000, that leaves you with $54,000 a year in actual cash that you get to use for everything else. Car? Figure $400 a month for something modest including insurance. About $5000 a year. Or metro pus cabs... whatever. Similar numbers.

That leaves you about $940 a week for everything else. Now, you may say, holy shit, $940 a week in left over cash is pretty awesome. You're billing 2,000 hours a year, which means you're working more than that - figure at least 60 hours a week.

I'm assuming you eat, get coffee, have some beers every once in a while, so let's take another $1,000 out for meals a month. Maybe you're more frugal. I have no idea. But $250 a week is a fair estimate ($12 a meal for 21 meals a week) for a major American city if you eat out once or twice a week.

So that's $690 a week, after eating, housing, transportation, and servicing your debt. You have not saved a dime, bought any clothes, or put away any money at this point for a downpayment on a home. You have not gone to the movies, or traveled home for the holidays. You haven't done anything except basically keep yourself alive and going to work.

And mind you, this is probably the most optimistic outcome you've got - this is you "winning" the lottery. You have a 70 percent chance, according to GULC statistics on LST, of doing worse than this.

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Robespierre
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Re: Georgetown VS USC

Postby Robespierre » Wed Jan 02, 2013 1:04 pm

^ Why do you feel that things will be as bad or worse for the Class of 2012 compared to the Class of 2011? Just curious. All data I know of indicates likely modest improvement. Thanks.

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cahwc12
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Re: Georgetown VS USC

Postby cahwc12 » Wed Jan 02, 2013 1:21 pm

wbrother wrote:
BarbellDreams wrote:If you're dead set on working in CA and want PI you need to either retake or go to Davis/Hastings/USD/Pepperdine with huge $$$$.


I will definitely take the year off if I my options are looking bleak. Would Hastings with $$$$ really be a better idea than USC or Georgetown with just $$? PI/Gov jobs seem to be extremely competitive, so I'm interested in hearing your thinking. Is it just the lower risk which makes those schools more attractive, or are the PI prospects at those schools not as low as I think?



You seem like a smart guy, which is why it's super strange to see you mentioning any California school on your radar. Even if it is your dream to practice there, you're not getting a full ride on a 3.3 / 164 / AA, much less at the stingiest ABA-approved schools in the nation (re: any CA school).

USC 2011-2012 URM aid
GULC 2011-2012 URM aid

Your best bet is to try and up your LSAT score (although I'm sure you're well aware of that, and only you can answer that question if you have a(nother) retake in you). Based on your numbers and where you want to practice, I just don't think the odds are in your favor.

jstr00az
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Re: Georgetown VS USC

Postby jstr00az » Wed Jan 02, 2013 1:33 pm

Robespierre wrote:^ Why do you feel that things will be as bad or worse for the Class of 2012 compared to the Class of 2011? Just curious. All data I know of indicates likely modest improvement. Thanks.


What data? BLS shows 75,000 jobs in the legal field likely to be created over next 10 years in total, but law schools are graduating 45,000 a year.

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suralin
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Re: Georgetown VS USC

Postby suralin » Wed Jan 02, 2013 1:49 pm

jstr00az wrote:
Robespierre wrote:^ Why do you feel that things will be as bad or worse for the Class of 2012 compared to the Class of 2011? Just curious. All data I know of indicates likely modest improvement. Thanks.


What data? BLS shows 75,000 jobs in the legal field likely to be created over next 10 years in total, but law schools are graduating 45,000 a year.


:(

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Nova
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Re: Georgetown VS USC

Postby Nova » Wed Jan 02, 2013 1:52 pm

Suralin wrote:
jstr00az wrote:
Robespierre wrote:^ Why do you feel that things will be as bad or worse for the Class of 2012 compared to the Class of 2011? Just curious. All data I know of indicates likely modest improvement. Thanks.


What data? BLS shows 75,000 jobs in the legal field likely to be created over next 10 years in total, but law schools are graduating 45,000 a year.


:(

Hutz_and_Goodman
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Re: Georgetown VS USC

Postby Hutz_and_Goodman » Wed Jan 02, 2013 1:56 pm

Robespierre wrote:^ Why do you feel that things will be as bad or worse for the Class of 2012 compared to the Class of 2011? Just curious. All data I know of indicates likely modest improvement. Thanks.


The situation can be better than 2011, and still not be that great. keep in mind that the number of graduates from law school will decline somewhat from 45,000 per year (enrollment is down for Class of 2015, and will likely be for Class of 2016), and the BLS data is about new positions created but there will also be people retiring from existing positions. Also, believe it or not, there are people in my 1L class who have no intention of practicing law (want to go into business, start a small business, etc.) and I'm sure there are others like this at other schools, who couldn't find the type of job they wanted ITE and so will probably not be competing for law jobs.
Last edited by Hutz_and_Goodman on Wed Jan 02, 2013 1:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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cahwc12
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Re: Georgetown VS USC

Postby cahwc12 » Wed Jan 02, 2013 1:58 pm

Hutz_and_Goodman wrote:
Robespierre wrote:^ Why do you feel that things will be as bad or worse for the Class of 2012 compared to the Class of 2011? Just curious. All data I know of indicates likely modest improvement. Thanks.


The situation can be better than 2011, and still not be that great. keep in mind that the number of graduates from law school will decline somewhat from 45,000 per year (enrollment is down for Class of 2015, and will likely be for Class of 2016), and the BLS data is about new positions created but there will also be people retiring from existing positions.


You're mistaking a lower rate of acceleration with slowing down.

Hutz_and_Goodman
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Re: Georgetown VS USC

Postby Hutz_and_Goodman » Wed Jan 02, 2013 2:00 pm

cahwc12 wrote:
Hutz_and_Goodman wrote:
Robespierre wrote:^ Why do you feel that things will be as bad or worse for the Class of 2012 compared to the Class of 2011? Just curious. All data I know of indicates likely modest improvement. Thanks.


The situation can be better than 2011, and still not be that great. keep in mind that the number of graduates from law school will decline somewhat from 45,000 per year (enrollment is down for Class of 2015, and will likely be for Class of 2016), and the BLS data is about new positions created but there will also be people retiring from existing positions.


You're mistaking a lower rate of acceleration with slowing down.


I don't follow

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suralin
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Re: Georgetown VS USC

Postby suralin » Wed Jan 02, 2013 2:02 pm

Hutz_and_Goodman wrote:
cahwc12 wrote:
Hutz_and_Goodman wrote:
Robespierre wrote:^ Why do you feel that things will be as bad or worse for the Class of 2012 compared to the Class of 2011? Just curious. All data I know of indicates likely modest improvement. Thanks.


The situation can be better than 2011, and still not be that great. keep in mind that the number of graduates from law school will decline somewhat from 45,000 per year (enrollment is down for Class of 2015, and will likely be for Class of 2016), and the BLS data is about new positions created but there will also be people retiring from existing positions.


You're mistaking a lower rate of acceleration with slowing down.


I don't follow


I think he meant (change in) acceleration != (change in) velocity, but I don't see how you mistook that.

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FlanAl
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Re: Georgetown VS USC

Postby FlanAl » Wed Jan 02, 2013 3:12 pm

OP you should check out this thread viewtopic.php?f=23&t=155423

it seems like a lot of the advice you're getting is from people with no PI focus. Might actually be better to ask people doing what you want to do.

With same COA I'd take georgetown because of their lrap and close proximity to like a million non-profits that you could work for during the semester to beef up your resume etc.

As far as getting pslf eligible work, if you're down to spend a couple years in riverside, yolo, bakersfield etc. the opportunities are not as dismal as tls makes them out to be.

Also that 50k or whatever average is just entry pay. In a number of california counties pd's/da's with 5 years of experience are cracking 6 figures.

Feel free to pm as well

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Robespierre
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Re: Georgetown VS USC

Postby Robespierre » Wed Jan 02, 2013 4:14 pm

jstr00az wrote:
Robespierre wrote:^ Why do you feel that things will be as bad or worse for the Class of 2012 compared to the Class of 2011? Just curious. All data I know of indicates likely modest improvement. Thanks.


What data? BLS shows 75,000 jobs in the legal field likely to be created over next 10 years in total, but law schools are graduating 45,000 a year.


Wait ... so when you made the affirmative statement that "2012 is expected to be as bad or worse than 2011," you were relying solely on the BLS data???

We have some indicators that go specifically to the Class of 2012. Namely: the data about on-campus recruiting in Fall 2010 and summer programs in Summer 2011. On-campus recruiting for Fall 2010 was modestly improved compared to the previous year according to NALP. See http://www.nalp.org/uploads/Perspectives_Fall_2010.pdf And summer programs in 2011 were generally somewhat larger than the previous year. See http://newsandinsight.thomsonreuters.co ... ut_slowly/ So the signs are modestly encouraging.

I know the "2012 is expected to be as bad or worse than 2011" point is only a secondary one in the context of your post. But the direction in which hiring is headed is one of the most crucial issues applicants are facing, so I want to make sure I understand the basis for your statement. If you have something other than the BLS data, please share. Thanks!

jstr00az
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Re: Georgetown VS USC

Postby jstr00az » Wed Jan 02, 2013 5:11 pm

Robespierre wrote:
jstr00az wrote:
Robespierre wrote:^ Why do you feel that things will be as bad or worse for the Class of 2012 compared to the Class of 2011? Just curious. All data I know of indicates likely modest improvement. Thanks.


What data? BLS shows 75,000 jobs in the legal field likely to be created over next 10 years in total, but law schools are graduating 45,000 a year.


Wait ... so when you made the affirmative statement that "2012 is expected to be as bad or worse than 2011," you were relying solely on the BLS data???

We have some indicators that go specifically to the Class of 2012. Namely: the data about on-campus recruiting in Fall 2010 and summer programs in Summer 2011. On-campus recruiting for Fall 2010 was modestly improved compared to the previous year according to NALP. See http://www.nalp.org/uploads/Perspectives_Fall_2010.pdf And summer programs in 2011 were generally somewhat larger than the previous year. See http://newsandinsight.thomsonreuters.co ... ut_slowly/ So the signs are modestly encouraging.

I know the "2012 is expected to be as bad or worse than 2011" point is only a secondary one in the context of your post. But the direction in which hiring is headed is one of the most crucial issues applicants are facing, so I want to make sure I understand the basis for your statement. If you have something other than the BLS data, please share. Thanks!


The BLS statistic is most glaring. But I'm happy to see data otherwise if you have it. I don't see any data in those articles - anecdotes, perhaps. I'm glad you're encouraged that summer programs are "somewhat larger". You do realize what a small fraction of recent graduate hiring is related to BigLaw summer classes, correct? Basically, it's accounting for about 1/3rd even at GULC which is a pretty good law school.

While it's nice that NALP was optimistic about 2010 hiring relative to 2009, NALP was wrong and 2010 hiring was worse than 2009, and 2011 was worse than 2010. Every year has been worse than the last, which is not proof that all future years will be worse than previous years. But it does call into question relying on NALP prognostications as NALP is basically a booster of BigLaw.

But even NALP's president is beginning to say that we should expect continued uncertainty etc. regarding employment even for those graduating in 2013, 2014, and 2015--- http://www.scribd.com/doc/110113683/NALP

I'm not saying the OP can't achieve what he wants to achieve. I'm saying that employment conditions are rough and are expected to continue to be rough. If things are a modest improvement over 2011, then I will (and a good many others) will have shown to have been too pessimistic. But you do realize that a modest improvement means that instead of 30 to percent of GULC getting BigLaw jobs, maybe it's 35 percent or 38 percent. No one is predicting a return to 2005, 6, 7 employment figures any time soon.

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Robespierre
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Re: Georgetown VS USC

Postby Robespierre » Wed Jan 02, 2013 6:37 pm

^ That's fine. I was only curious whether you were going off any data other than the BLS stats, and you answered that. Personally I think hiring is picking up modestly, but I have nothing to back it up other than what I cited to, and you're certainly right that it's not much. Can't wait to see the ABA employment data on the GULC Class of '12.

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Re: Georgetown VS USC

Postby jstr00az » Wed Jan 02, 2013 10:24 pm

Robespierre wrote:^ That's fine. I was only curious whether you were going off any data other than the BLS stats, and you answered that. Personally I think hiring is picking up modestly, but I have nothing to back it up other than what I cited to, and you're certainly right that it's not much. Can't wait to see the ABA employment data on the GULC Class of '12.



Right. So my data, vs your intuition vs. spending a quarter of a million on a degree that has. 35 percent chance of earning income even if you're right means he probably should not go.

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Re: Georgetown VS USC

Postby jstr00az » Wed Jan 02, 2013 10:25 pm

Robespierre wrote:^ That's fine. I was only curious whether you were going off any data other than the BLS stats, and you answered that. Personally I think hiring is picking up modestly, but I have nothing to back it up other than what I cited to, and you're certainly right that it's not much. Can't wait to see the ABA employment data on the GULC Class of '12.


You are a special snowflake. So rock on.

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Re: Georgetown VS USC

Postby TopTopham » Wed Jan 02, 2013 11:46 pm

Robespierre wrote:
jstr00az wrote:
Robespierre wrote:^ Why do you feel that things will be as bad or worse for the Class of 2012 compared to the Class of 2011? Just curious. All data I know of indicates likely modest improvement. Thanks.


What data? BLS shows 75,000 jobs in the legal field likely to be created over next 10 years in total, but law schools are graduating 45,000 a year.


Wait ... so when you made the affirmative statement that "2012 is expected to be as bad or worse than 2011," you were relying solely on the BLS data???

We have some indicators that go specifically to the Class of 2012. Namely: the data about on-campus recruiting in Fall 2010 and summer programs in Summer 2011. On-campus recruiting for Fall 2010 was modestly improved compared to the previous year according to NALP. See http://www.nalp.org/uploads/Perspectives_Fall_2010.pdf And summer programs in 2011 were generally somewhat larger than the previous year. See http://newsandinsight.thomsonreuters.co ... ut_slowly/ So the signs are modestly encouraging.

I know the "2012 is expected to be as bad or worse than 2011" point is only a secondary one in the context of your post. But the direction in which hiring is headed is one of the most crucial issues applicants are facing, so I want to make sure I understand the basis for your statement. If you have something other than the BLS data, please share. Thanks!


good poast, never saw that reuters article, informative, thanks

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Re: Georgetown VS USC

Postby jbagelboy » Thu Jan 10, 2013 11:04 pm

LST says GULC had a 63 percent employment rate in JD-required jobs for the class of 2011, 68 percent for 2010. 2012 is expected to be as bad or worse than 2011.

Only 1/3rd of the class reported a salary of $160,000, which would justify a debt of $150k to $200k. Cost of Living in DC is going to be between $30k a year. Tuition is $47k. Let's assume you only pay 2/3rds of that. That's $30k. $30k plus $30k for living is about $60k. $60k times 3 years is $180k plus the interest for the debt you carry during the three years is going to bring you at about $200k

When you graduate, you have a one-third chance according to current statistics of getting that $160k job, and a 2/3rds chance of getting job any job at all that requires a JD. No informed commentator believes that legal market is going to improve, and some believe it will get worse - at least for recent grads.

$160k is not what you will make, because it will be taxed at, roughly, 40 percent. I say roughly because it could be a bit more, could be a bit less. Let's assume you take home $96,000 as a ballpark figure.

If you are in DC or any similarly situated city where you can earn the $160k, you're looking at at least $1200 a month in rent. That's $14,000 a year (and we're talking about some shared living arrangement) because rents in DC, Arlington, Alexandria are considerably higher than that. So let's just assume another $100 a month in utilities. Let's assume $15,000.

Plus you've got $200,000 in law school debt. So you're paying another $2,300 or so a month. That's $27,000. Plus the living expenses leaves you with $42,000 in money you don't actually get.

Right off the top that of that $96,000, that leaves you with $54,000 a year in actual cash that you get to use for everything else. Car? Figure $400 a month for something modest including insurance. About $5000 a year. Or metro pus cabs... whatever. Similar numbers.

That leaves you about $940 a week for everything else. Now, you may say, holy shit, $940 a week in left over cash is pretty awesome. You're billing 2,000 hours a year, which means you're working more than that - figure at least 60 hours a week.

I'm assuming you eat, get coffee, have some beers every once in a while, so let's take another $1,000 out for meals a month. Maybe you're more frugal. I have no idea. But $250 a week is a fair estimate ($12 a meal for 21 meals a week) for a major American city if you eat out once or twice a week.

So that's $690 a week, after eating, housing, transportation, and servicing your debt. You have not saved a dime, bought any clothes, or put away any money at this point for a downpayment on a home. You have not gone to the movies, or traveled home for the holidays. You haven't done anything except basically keep yourself alive and going to work.

And mind you, this is probably the most optimistic outcome you've got - this is you "winning" the lottery. You have a 70 percent chance, according to GULC statistics on LST, of doing worse than this.


Well holy shit, you're depressing. Besides the fact that the OP is interested in PI and not anything paying $160K/yr, this paints a pretty dismal picture for any potential law student paying sticker, which is most students at the top schools.

I'm looking at full ride from Minnesota, $30K/yr from UCLA, or sticker (unless merit aid magically presents itself) at a few T14 like Northwestern and NYU. From this bleak picture, seems like I almost shouldn't go! What sage advise could you provide? even though I worked my ass off to get in to these schools while concurrently busting my ass at my full time consulting gig

Hutz_and_Goodman
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Re: Georgetown VS USC

Postby Hutz_and_Goodman » Thu Jan 10, 2013 11:23 pm

jbagelboy wrote:
LST says GULC had a 63 percent employment rate in JD-required jobs for the class of 2011, 68 percent for 2010. 2012 is expected to be as bad or worse than 2011.

Only 1/3rd of the class reported a salary of $160,000, which would justify a debt of $150k to $200k. Cost of Living in DC is going to be between $30k a year. Tuition is $47k. Let's assume you only pay 2/3rds of that. That's $30k. $30k plus $30k for living is about $60k. $60k times 3 years is $180k plus the interest for the debt you carry during the three years is going to bring you at about $200k

When you graduate, you have a one-third chance according to current statistics of getting that $160k job, and a 2/3rds chance of getting job any job at all that requires a JD. No informed commentator believes that legal market is going to improve, and some believe it will get worse - at least for recent grads.

$160k is not what you will make, because it will be taxed at, roughly, 40 percent. I say roughly because it could be a bit more, could be a bit less. Let's assume you take home $96,000 as a ballpark figure.

If you are in DC or any similarly situated city where you can earn the $160k, you're looking at at least $1200 a month in rent. That's $14,000 a year (and we're talking about some shared living arrangement) because rents in DC, Arlington, Alexandria are considerably higher than that. So let's just assume another $100 a month in utilities. Let's assume $15,000.

Plus you've got $200,000 in law school debt. So you're paying another $2,300 or so a month. That's $27,000. Plus the living expenses leaves you with $42,000 in money you don't actually get.

Right off the top that of that $96,000, that leaves you with $54,000 a year in actual cash that you get to use for everything else. Car? Figure $400 a month for something modest including insurance. About $5000 a year. Or metro pus cabs... whatever. Similar numbers.

That leaves you about $940 a week for everything else. Now, you may say, holy shit, $940 a week in left over cash is pretty awesome. You're billing 2,000 hours a year, which means you're working more than that - figure at least 60 hours a week.

I'm assuming you eat, get coffee, have some beers every once in a while, so let's take another $1,000 out for meals a month. Maybe you're more frugal. I have no idea. But $250 a week is a fair estimate ($12 a meal for 21 meals a week) for a major American city if you eat out once or twice a week.

So that's $690 a week, after eating, housing, transportation, and servicing your debt. You have not saved a dime, bought any clothes, or put away any money at this point for a downpayment on a home. You have not gone to the movies, or traveled home for the holidays. You haven't done anything except basically keep yourself alive and going to work.

And mind you, this is probably the most optimistic outcome you've got - this is you "winning" the lottery. You have a 70 percent chance, according to GULC statistics on LST, of doing worse than this.


Well holy shit, you're depressing. Besides the fact that the OP is interested in PI and not anything paying $160K/yr, this paints a pretty dismal picture for any potential law student paying sticker, which is most students at the top schools.

I'm looking at full ride from Minnesota, $30K/yr from UCLA, or sticker (unless merit aid magically presents itself) at a few T14 like Northwestern and NYU. From this bleak picture, seems like I almost shouldn't go! What sage advise could you provide? even though I worked my ass off to get in to these schools while concurrently busting my ass at my full time consulting gig


I had a similar choice (actually $60k at lower T14 schools), and picked the full ride at a T1 in a region where I want to practice. The unfortunate truth is that the price of a law degree has been rapidly increasing during the last decade, and the value of the degree has been declining significantly given the employment possibilities. If you are willing to practice in MN or a nearby state I would investigate the employment prospects at the school and see what you can find about how full-ride students have done (a lot of schools keep data on how their named scholarship students do, and this is typically different then how everyone does, on average--note, not a guarantee at all). If not, I would roll the dice at Northwestern or NYU, but you have to go into it with eyes wide open. if you google Duke law petition you will find that current law students there are petitioning the dean not to raise tuition again (which he will), given the bleak job prospects, and this is at an elite T14 law school. I think UCLA is the worst of the options you mention because the employment prospects are not all that great and CA is a saturated market (so you will have a lot of debt and not nearly as good of options as T14). I am an advocate in this economy of the full ride, because if you can manage to get really good grades that's probably the best outcome possible (no debt and a good job).

also, given your stats you will get $60-100k total from the lower T14 (Northwestern), and at that price it may make sense to take it.

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somewhatwayward
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Re: Georgetown VS USC

Postby somewhatwayward » Fri Jan 11, 2013 12:47 pm

Robespierre wrote:
jstr00az wrote:
Robespierre wrote:^ Why do you feel that things will be as bad or worse for the Class of 2012 compared to the Class of 2011? Just curious. All data I know of indicates likely modest improvement. Thanks.


What data? BLS shows 75,000 jobs in the legal field likely to be created over next 10 years in total, but law schools are graduating 45,000 a year.


Wait ... so when you made the affirmative statement that "2012 is expected to be as bad or worse than 2011," you were relying solely on the BLS data???

We have some indicators that go specifically to the Class of 2012. Namely: the data about on-campus recruiting in Fall 2010 and summer programs in Summer 2011. On-campus recruiting for Fall 2010 was modestly improved compared to the previous year according to NALP. See http://www.nalp.org/uploads/Perspectives_Fall_2010.pdf And summer programs in 2011 were generally somewhat larger than the previous year. See http://newsandinsight.thomsonreuters.co ... ut_slowly/ So the signs are modestly encouraging.

I know the "2012 is expected to be as bad or worse than 2011" point is only a secondary one in the context of your post. But the direction in which hiring is headed is one of the most crucial issues applicants are facing, so I want to make sure I understand the basis for your statement. If you have something other than the BLS data, please share. Thanks!


I don't have any comprehensive data, but I have seen data on SA hiring at CLS for c/o 2011, 2012, and 2013....each year, the % of students who participated in OCI and received offers crept up...78% for c/o 2011; 85% for c/o 2012; 92% for c/o 2013. However, while I don't have the data for c/o 2014 (even though CLS has it; they won't release it until this spring), I believe SA hiring was down for c/o 2014 as compared to c/o 2013 and possibly even c/o 2012. This is based on my anecdotal impression and also the fact that a couple firms I talked to cut their class pretty drastically.

I know my anecdotal impression is not compelling data, and since I am only talking about CLS, there are a lot of limitations in how extrapolatable the conclusion would be if it is correct. Even just considering CLS this doesn't give a complete picture bc the big law #s don't tell us how hiring is going in other sectors. My point is just that I don't think it is wise to rely on the assumption that hiring will improve every year from here on out, and I agree with the poster who said NALP is not a reliable source.

One other thing to note wrt big law hiring (not sure how this is playing out in PI or gov)....it has become even more feast or famine depending on your school's rank. Basically big firms used to take basically all students who wanted big law from T14s, most from T25s, many from T1s, and then basically the top of the class from everywhere else. But when they started hiring way less people, they had to decide where they were going to make the cuts. All groups were cut to some extent since obviously not all T14 students who want it get big law, but overall firms seemed to tend toward hiring a larger proportion of T14 (even T10 IME) students and reducing the # of students they took from less elite schools. This means a bounce back in the data at CLS or similar schools is not necessarily an indication of overall improvement.




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