Is Any Optimism Justified?

(Rankings, Profiles, Tuition, Student Life, . . . )

How does your class ranking in law school compare to your incoming LSAT/GPA percentile?

Higher
24
42%
About the same
21
37%
Lower
12
21%
 
Total votes: 57

Hutz_and_Goodman
Posts: 1413
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2012 10:42 am

Re: Is Any Optimism Justified?

Postby Hutz_and_Goodman » Sat Aug 18, 2012 8:00 pm

quiver wrote:
Hutz_and_Goodman wrote:I think LSAT/gpa well above seventy fifth percentile is an important factor but not absolutely determinative. I've heard also that work experience between undergrad and JD can be a plus, as can being in a committed relationship (less time spent out and better support structure at home).
This is so dumb.


Porquoi? There are a number of factors that contribute to success. Of these, the first I listed is by far the most important: if you are in the top 5% of your class in terms of gpa/lsat you no doubt have more than a 1/20 chance of top 5% grades and more than a 1/5 chance of top 20% grades. No one could really dispute that. The other factors are less absolute, but it's hard to imagine they wouldn't help. On the other hand, if you're in a committed relationship and your partner cheats on you right before finals that would be worse than being single.

User avatar
quiver
Posts: 864
Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2011 6:46 pm

Re: Is Any Optimism Justified?

Postby quiver » Sat Aug 18, 2012 8:51 pm

Hutz_and_Goodman wrote:There are a number of factors that contribute to success. Of these, the first I listed is by far the most important: if you are in the top 5% of your class in terms of gpa/lsat you no doubt have more than a 1/20 chance of top 5% grades and more than a 1/5 chance of top 20% grades. No one could really dispute that.
I can dispute that. Maybe people wouldn't dispute that someone with top 5% gpa+lsat has a better chance at finishing higher in the class but how much higher is definitely up for debate. I'm certainly not willing to adhere to those percentages.

Hutz_and_Goodman wrote:The other factors are less absolute, but it's hard to imagine they wouldn't help.
First of all, nothing is absolute. Second, how is it hard to imagine that WE and relationship status don't help? I feel confident in saying that almost nobody has faced anything like 1L year, much less a law school exam, whether they have WE or not. How exactly does WE help you on law school exams (aka the only thing you're graded on)? I would love to hear you answer that one, especially if you're a 0L. I think any "advantage" of WE with respect to grades is negligible at best. Obviously it helps for OCI, but nobody has said anything to convince me that WE matters in terms of GPA. IIRC, there was a law professor thread somewhere on TLS where he said that people with WE, in his experience, generally did worse on exams. Too lazy to find it though. IMO, it's a neutral factor.

This is the first time I've ever seen anyone say being in a relationship is a plus. It may be a positive but that will largely depending on the type of relationship. But single people can stay in and study just as much as people in relationships and people in relationships can go out (with their own friends or law school friends) just as much as single people. Better support structure at home? Maybe not. People can be in committed relationships that are long distance - that can take a toll. My point is simply that "being in a committed relationship" has so many sub factors that it can hardly be called a positive factor in and of itself at all.

I understand you're saying that these can be positive factors in certain circumstances, but you could say that about anything. I could easily make the argument that being single may be a positive factor too (less time commitments to other activities, more free time to blow off steam to prevent burnout, etc.). I'll concede that gpa/lsat have some predictive capacity, albeit an unknown one, but anything beyond that seems silly.

bigvinny
Posts: 47
Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2012 11:50 am

Re: Is Any Optimism Justified?

Postby bigvinny » Sat Aug 18, 2012 9:51 pm

manbear wrote:Hello All,

This is my first post and I'm interested in a specific question -- can anyone here who 1) choose to go to a lower ranked school over a t14 school due to scholarship offers and 2) had LSAT/GPA substantially above the 75th percentile for the lower ranked school comment on their success in law school? Obviously there are no guarantees, but do people coming into schools with LSAT/GPA substantially above their classmates generally end up with better grades? I'm more interested in the LSAT component than the GPA component, since GPA's must be put into the context of undergrad institution, major, course choices, etc.

I realize this question has been touched on in many places, but I have not seen it framed this way before. I'm not interested in whether or not vowing to "work hard" results in success. I doubt it does. I'm interested in knowing if grades in law school are honestly a completely unpredictable crapshoot (as some seem to suggest), or whether or not one's incoming LSAT/GPA percentile even roughly correlates with one's class rank percentile. It seems like at least some correlation should exist, unless law school grades are generated by a random number machine...

For example, suppose someone is coming from an Ivy League undergrad with a 173/3.8 and is considering to go to, say a tier 1 school in the 25-75 ranking range for free vs. a top 14 school for full sticker price. If this person is in the top 5% of the incoming class by LSAT/GPA, could this person reasonably expect to have grades in even the top 25% of the class? Would this person be a fool to expect that his or her grades will be anything other than completely unpredictable?


Go to a school with good job prospects. LSAT and gpa are not good indicators of how you will do in law school.

manbear
Posts: 18
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2012 5:12 pm

Re: Is Any Optimism Justified?

Postby manbear » Sat Aug 18, 2012 11:44 pm

bigvinny wrote:
Go to a school with good job prospects. LSAT and gpa are not good indicators of how you will do in law school.



Do you think there are any indicators of how well one will do in law school? I know LSAT and GPA aren't everything, and I imagine no set of explanatory variables can predict law school success with certainty, but I'm essentially trying to figure out how to make the best possible prediction of success (which admittedly might not be that great of a prediction). It's better than nothing though.

I'm highly skeptical of the idea that law school success is actually, literally random and unpredictable. Surely professors grade students based on the quality of their academic work. Are the standards for quality in law school so radically different from rigorous undergrad that undergrad GPA is completely unrelated to law school GPA? I know there is a curve, everyone is trying hard, professors have different standards, life is complicated, etc., but there must be at least some rough basis for predicting success. If success is completely unpredictable, such that successful students have nothing in common at all, then grades in law school are completely meaningless. Should I be this cynical?

User avatar
quiver
Posts: 864
Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2011 6:46 pm

Re: Is Any Optimism Justified?

Postby quiver » Sun Aug 19, 2012 12:35 am

manbear wrote:Do you think there are any indicators of how well one will do in law school?
No good ones.

manbear wrote:Are the standards for quality in law school so radically different from rigorous undergrad that undergrad GPA is completely unrelated to law school GPA?
Generally, yes.

manbear wrote:If success is completely unpredictable, such that successful students have nothing in common at all, then grades in law school are completely meaningless.
Not sure how that makes law school grades completely meaningless. Besides, common factor: all the top students did well on exams.

manbear wrote:Should I be this cynical?
If you're looking for certainty you will be a sorely disappointed law student.

manbear
Posts: 18
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2012 5:12 pm

Re: Is Any Optimism Justified?

Postby manbear » Sun Aug 19, 2012 2:29 am

quiver wrote:
manbear wrote:Do you think there are any indicators of how well one will do in law school?
No good ones.

manbear wrote:Are the standards for quality in law school so radically different from rigorous undergrad that undergrad GPA is completely unrelated to law school GPA?
Generally, yes.

manbear wrote:If success is completely unpredictable, such that successful students have nothing in common at all, then grades in law school are completely meaningless.
Not sure how that makes law school grades completely meaningless. Besides, common factor: all the top students did well on exams.

manbear wrote:Should I be this cynical?
If you're looking for certainty you will be a sorely disappointed law student.


I'm not looking for certainty, but I'm also not willing to say "Success in law school is completely uncertain and there is nothing I can do to predict how successful I can be at a given school." I'm not looking for a black-and-white answer to my question. I'm not looking for "good" predictors of success -- I'm looking for the best ones that exist. Best is relative here -- either success in law school can be predicted to some, perhaps small, degree (so a best prediction is possible), or grades are given out in a random lottery (the only way that no prediction, and thus no best prediction, is possible).

If grades are given out in a random lottery, then they are indeed meaningless. Such grades would say nothing about the quality of a student's exam, the student's understanding of the law, the student's writing ability, etc., because they would have nothing to do with the student's work or thought. If grades were random, you could turn in anyone else's exam as your own and expect to get the exact same grade, no matter who you trade with. If this were the case, it would be obvious that grades convey no useful information about a student.

Your statement that what successful students have in common is doing well on exams is circular and misses the point. Doing well on exams is equivalent to being successful whenever the exam is 100% of the course grade. I am asking what factors an applicant could consider in order to determine the likelihood of getting top exam grades at a given school. I don't believe that the answer is nothing at all, otherwise grades would be random. This does not mean that I expect some kind of conclusive answer that I can rely on with 100% certainty; only that I expect an answer I can rely on with greater than 0% certainty.

kenji
Posts: 53
Joined: Mon Mar 05, 2012 3:17 am

Re: Is Any Optimism Justified?

Postby kenji » Sun Aug 19, 2012 4:40 am

ilovesf wrote:No. This is retarded and there have been a lot of threads on this topic.


You're a dumbass

Mal Reynolds
Posts: 12630
Joined: Mon Oct 03, 2011 12:16 am

Re: Is Any Optimism Justified?

Postby Mal Reynolds » Sun Aug 19, 2012 5:20 am

manbear wrote:I'm not looking for certainty, but I'm also not willing to say "Success in law school is completely uncertain and there is nothing I can do to predict how successful I can be at a given school." I'm not looking for a black-and-white answer to my question. I'm not looking for "good" predictors of success -- I'm looking for the best ones that exist. Best is relative here -- either success in law school can be predicted to some, perhaps small, degree (so a best prediction is possible), or grades are given out in a random lottery (the only way that no prediction, and thus no best prediction, is possible).

If grades are given out in a random lottery, then they are indeed meaningless. Such grades would say nothing about the quality of a student's exam, the student's understanding of the law, the student's writing ability, etc., because they would have nothing to do with the student's work or thought. If grades were random, you could turn in anyone else's exam as your own and expect to get the exact same grade, no matter who you trade with. If this were the case, it would be obvious that grades convey no useful information about a student.

Your statement that what successful students have in common is doing well on exams is circular and misses the point. Doing well on exams is equivalent to being successful whenever the exam is 100% of the course grade. I am asking what factors an applicant could consider in order to determine the likelihood of getting top exam grades at a given school. I don't believe that the answer is nothing at all, otherwise grades would be random. This does not mean that I expect some kind of conclusive answer that I can rely on with 100% certainty; only that I expect an answer I can rely on with greater than 0% certainty.


There isn't a solid way to predict law school success, but that doesn't mean grades are meaningless. Those two things aren't mutually exclusive even though you hope they are.

User avatar
Law Sauce
Posts: 923
Joined: Mon Nov 15, 2010 2:21 pm

Re: Is Any Optimism Justified?

Postby Law Sauce » Sun Aug 19, 2012 8:03 am

What are your numbers? Where are you applying? With this information, people can give you some actual advice.

With respect to the question, yea, I think that you can be optimistic that you will go pretty well, aka above median, but I'm not sure why you wouldn't still think you could do well at a better school. In some ways, doing well at a t14 isnt harder because there are kids at both that arent really killing themselves to get good grades. Also, look at the OCI threads for non t14s. It can be brutal. And, the reward at a T14 is far greater.

User avatar
quiver
Posts: 864
Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2011 6:46 pm

Re: Is Any Optimism Justified?

Postby quiver » Sun Aug 19, 2012 9:21 am

manbear wrote:I'm not looking for certainty, but I'm also not willing to say "Success in law school is completely uncertain and there is nothing I can do to predict how successful I can be at a given school." I'm not looking for a black-and-white answer to my question. I'm not looking for "good" predictors of success -- I'm looking for the best ones that exist.
Everyone has already said that GPA+LSAT are the "best" predictors relatively, but they're still not very good predictors overall. Nobody knows how strongly correlated those factors are with law school grades.

manbear wrote:either success in law school can be predicted to some, perhaps small, degree (so a best prediction is possible), or grades are given out in a random lottery (the only way that no prediction, and thus no best prediction, is possible).

If grades are given out in a random lottery, then they are indeed meaningless. Such grades would say nothing about the quality of a student's exam, the student's understanding of the law, the student's writing ability, etc., because they would have nothing to do with the student's work or thought. If grades were random, you could turn in anyone else's exam as your own and expect to get the exact same grade, no matter who you trade with. If this were the case, it would be obvious that grades convey no useful information about a student.
I was being a bit flippant in my previous response so I guess I'll lay it out for you. Your reasoning is that grades can't really be predicted, therefore grades are random, and random grades are meaningless; therefore law school grades are meaningless. I agree that if law school grades are chosen by random lottery then they don't mean anything. But the problem is the first part: just because you can't predict something before it happens doesn't mean the result is random. They are two completely separate things. You may not know who is going to do well before the semester starts, but if you go back and look at exams when the semester is over, you will be able to see a difference in quality between a B exam and an A exam. Just because you don't know who the B exam and A exam writers are beforehand doesn't mean the professor is picking out of a hat. Your logic doesn't follow.

manbear wrote:Your statement that what successful students have in common is doing well on exams is circular and misses the point.
My statement was exactly to the point; it was my way of saying what I wrote above in a more creative manner.

manbear wrote:I am asking what factors an applicant could consider in order to determine the likelihood of getting top exam grades at a given school.
Everyone has already said: GPA+LSAT. The problem is that those are very imperfect predictors and nobody really knows how strongly they correlate with law school success.

manbear wrote:This does not mean that I expect some kind of conclusive answer that I can rely on with 100% certainty; only that I expect an answer I can rely on with greater than 0% certainty.
See above.

Hutz_and_Goodman
Posts: 1413
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2012 10:42 am

Re: Is Any Optimism Justified?

Postby Hutz_and_Goodman » Sun Aug 19, 2012 10:24 am

To the OP: there's really no definitive answer. If you attend a T14 you have more room to screw up grades wise but you'll have the debt. At a t1 full ride it's quite unlikely youll have bad grades but you may be above median without being a standout. I personally would rather take the latter course where if 1l doesn't go well I can drop out with no debt, but assuming I am top 1/3 or above I can do OCI with no debt and role the dice with big law abd other desireable jobs.

manbear
Posts: 18
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2012 5:12 pm

Re: Is Any Optimism Justified?

Postby manbear » Sun Aug 19, 2012 11:11 am

quiver wrote:I was being a bit flippant in my previous response so I guess I'll lay it out for you. Your reasoning is that grades can't really be predicted, therefore grades are random, and random grades are meaningless; therefore law school grades are meaningless. I agree that if law school grades are chosen by random lottery then they don't mean anything. But the problem is the first part: just because you can't predict something before it happens doesn't mean the result is random. They are two completely separate things. You may not know who is going to do well before the semester starts, but if you go back and look at exams when the semester is over, you will be able to see a difference in quality between a B exam and an A exam. Just because you don't know who the B exam and A exam writers are beforehand doesn't mean the professor is picking out of a hat. Your logic doesn't follow.


If a top A student is able to consistently do X, and X gets that person A's, then doing X can predict success to some degree. I stand by my logic. If grades cannot be predicted, then people who consistently get A's do so entirely through luck. Is this what you are telling me? Are you saying that successful students do not owe their success to anything repeatable in their approach to law school?

User avatar
fatduck
Posts: 4186
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 10:16 pm

Re: Is Any Optimism Justified?

Postby fatduck » Sun Aug 19, 2012 11:17 am

manbear wrote:
quiver wrote:I was being a bit flippant in my previous response so I guess I'll lay it out for you. Your reasoning is that grades can't really be predicted, therefore grades are random, and random grades are meaningless; therefore law school grades are meaningless. I agree that if law school grades are chosen by random lottery then they don't mean anything. But the problem is the first part: just because you can't predict something before it happens doesn't mean the result is random. They are two completely separate things. You may not know who is going to do well before the semester starts, but if you go back and look at exams when the semester is over, you will be able to see a difference in quality between a B exam and an A exam. Just because you don't know who the B exam and A exam writers are beforehand doesn't mean the professor is picking out of a hat. Your logic doesn't follow.


If a top A student is able to consistently do X, and X gets that person A's, then doing X can predict success to some degree. I stand by my logic. If grades cannot be predicted, then people who consistently get A's do so entirely through luck. Is this what you are telling me? Are you saying that successful students do not owe their success to anything repeatable in their approach to law school?

"just because you can't predict it" means you can't predict it, bro, it doesn't mean it's completely unpredictable. i'm sure if you had enough data on the various attributes of the entering class you could make a decent guess as to where people would shake out in class rank, but you don't have that data, do you?

success in law school is based on, roughly: the extent to which you "get" law school, skill at taking timed exams, typing speed, and luck, luck comprising the subjective nature of exam grading and the relative performance of your classmates. gpa and lsat are extremely rough proxies for one, maybe two of those factors.

Bgibbs
Posts: 52
Joined: Wed Feb 15, 2012 12:07 am

Re: Is Any Optimism Justified?

Postby Bgibbs » Sun Aug 19, 2012 11:30 am

manbear wrote:
quiver wrote:I was being a bit flippant in my previous response so I guess I'll lay it out for you. Your reasoning is that grades can't really be predicted, therefore grades are random, and random grades are meaningless; therefore law school grades are meaningless. I agree that if law school grades are chosen by random lottery then they don't mean anything. But the problem is the first part: just because you can't predict something before it happens doesn't mean the result is random. They are two completely separate things. You may not know who is going to do well before the semester starts, but if you go back and look at exams when the semester is over, you will be able to see a difference in quality between a B exam and an A exam. Just because you don't know who the B exam and A exam writers are beforehand doesn't mean the professor is picking out of a hat. Your logic doesn't follow.


If a top A student is able to consistently do X, and X gets that person A's, then doing X can predict success to some degree. I stand by my logic. If grades cannot be predicted, then people who consistently get A's do so entirely through luck. Is this what you are telling me? Are you saying that successful students do not owe their success to anything repeatable in their approach to law school?


No. You're standing behind your logic because you read their post wrong. They're saying that while there is a noticeable difference in quality, for the most part, between good and bad exams, there is no way to predict before students take exams who will achieve which result. GPA and LSAT have some correlation but at most schools the range between the 25% and 75% is small enough that there is barely any statistical significance in the predicted outcomes of students, thus the randomness often referenced on these boards.

Taking law school exams is a skill, and people at the top of the class aren't there by accident. They worked hard and knew the material. However, many people who didn't do as well also worked hard and knew the material. This is why success can't be predicted.

User avatar
shredderrrrrr
Posts: 4673
Joined: Wed Aug 17, 2011 2:36 am

Re: Is Any Optimism Justified?

Postby shredderrrrrr » Sun Aug 19, 2012 11:34 am

PaulKriske wrote:
manbear wrote:For example, suppose someone is coming from an Ivy League undergrad with a 173/3.8 and is considering to go to, say a tier 1 school in the 25-75 ranking range for free vs. a top 14 school for full sticker price.


this is nonsensical.


Elaborate...

Bgibbs
Posts: 52
Joined: Wed Feb 15, 2012 12:07 am

Re: Is Any Optimism Justified?

Postby Bgibbs » Sun Aug 19, 2012 11:38 am

shredderrrrrr wrote:
PaulKriske wrote:
manbear wrote:For example, suppose someone is coming from an Ivy League undergrad with a 173/3.8 and is considering to go to, say a tier 1 school in the 25-75 ranking range for free vs. a top 14 school for full sticker price.


this is nonsensical.


Elaborate...


A person with a 173/3.8 will have a big scholarship to schools in the T14 and potentially YSH acceptances, all of which are better options than a school between 25-75.

User avatar
shredderrrrrr
Posts: 4673
Joined: Wed Aug 17, 2011 2:36 am

Re: Is Any Optimism Justified?

Postby shredderrrrrr » Sun Aug 19, 2012 11:47 am

Bgibbs wrote:
shredderrrrrr wrote:
PaulKriske wrote:
manbear wrote:For example, suppose someone is coming from an Ivy League undergrad with a 173/3.8 and is considering to go to, say a tier 1 school in the 25-75 ranking range for free vs. a top 14 school for full sticker price.


this is nonsensical.


Elaborate...


A person with a 173/3.8 will have a big scholarship to schools in the T14 and potentially YSH acceptances, all of which are better options than a school between 25-75.


Well to be fair, the original post referenced only T14 options at full price. Nevertheless, I fail to see how it is "nonsensical" to go to a lower ranked school for free over a top school for 150-200k or a lower T14 at 75-150k. I'm not saying it is the BEST thing to do, but surely it is not nonsensical to try to get a cheap education, even if you are sacrificing school quality/prestige.

Bgibbs
Posts: 52
Joined: Wed Feb 15, 2012 12:07 am

Re: Is Any Optimism Justified?

Postby Bgibbs » Sun Aug 19, 2012 11:54 am

shredderrrrrr wrote:
Bgibbs wrote:
shredderrrrrr wrote:
PaulKriske wrote:this is nonsensical.


Elaborate...


A person with a 173/3.8 will have a big scholarship to schools in the T14 and potentially YSH acceptances, all of which are better options than a school between 25-75.


Well to be fair, the original post referenced only T14 options at full price. Nevertheless, I fail to see how it is "nonsensical" to go to a lower ranked school for free over a top school for 150-200k or a lower T14 at 75-150k. I'm not saying it is the BEST thing to do, but surely it is not nonsensical to try to get a cheap education, even if you are sacrificing school quality/prestige.


As long as you don't want biglaw going to a lower ranked school for cheap can be a great option (though I'd definitely argue for any T14 for 75k as per your example). The nonsensical part was the hypothetical 3.8/173.

User avatar
quiver
Posts: 864
Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2011 6:46 pm

Re: Is Any Optimism Justified?

Postby quiver » Sun Aug 19, 2012 12:03 pm

fatduck wrote:"just because you can't predict it" means you can't predict it, bro, it doesn't mean it's completely unpredictable. i'm sure if you had enough data on the various attributes of the entering class you could make a decent guess as to where people would shake out in class rank, but you don't have that data, do you?

success in law school is based on, roughly: the extent to which you "get" law school, skill at taking timed exams, typing speed, and luck, luck comprising the subjective nature of exam grading and the relative performance of your classmates. gpa and lsat are extremely rough proxies for one, maybe two of those factors.
This.
Bgibbs wrote:No. You're standing behind your logic because you read their post wrong. They're saying that while there is a noticeable difference in quality, for the most part, between good and bad exams, there is no way to predict before students take exams who will achieve which result. GPA and LSAT have some correlation but at most schools the range between the 25% and 75% is small enough that there is barely any statistical significance in the predicted outcomes of students, thus the randomness often referenced on these boards.
And this.

The attributes fatduck listed are what predict good grades, but there are no good measurements of those attributes.

katjust
Posts: 170
Joined: Fri Jun 27, 2008 10:49 am

Re: Is Any Optimism Justified?

Postby katjust » Sun Aug 19, 2012 12:18 pm

I went to a T2. I had a number of T1 options and only applied at 1 T14 and 1 T20 (waitlisted at both before I withdrew).

Upon entering law school I was 1 point above the top 25th percentile LSAT and well above the top 25th percentile GPA.

I ended 1L right at bottom of top 10% and 3L at bottom of top 15%. I had a unique situation (3 kids and married). This probably fits pretty well with my entering numbers. This was without putting forth an insane amount of effort.

At my school, I do think that someone with an LSAT substantially higher than the top 25% and a good GPA would have no problem finishing in the top 20% and probably little trouble in the top 10% (especially after 1L).

Anyone, just one person's experience.

Hutz_and_Goodman
Posts: 1413
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2012 10:42 am

Re: Is Any Optimism Justified?

Postby Hutz_and_Goodman » Sun Aug 19, 2012 2:15 pm

As long as you don't want biglaw going to a lower ranked school for cheap can be a great option (though I'd definitely argue for any T14 for 75k as per your example). The nonsensical part was the hypothetical 3.8/173.[/quote]

This is simply untrue. Currently at a T14 the odds of big law are 1/2 or maybe 2/3. There are many T1 where the top scholarship students (full ride and full ride +) are getting big law at this rate or higher. And there is not the same risk of ruin because of no debt. If you're interested in elite major market big law (say V20 NYC) then t14 is definitely the way to go, but the full ride option is routinely undervalued.

User avatar
spleenworship
Posts: 4421
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2011 11:08 pm

Re: Is Any Optimism Justified?

Postby spleenworship » Sun Aug 19, 2012 2:51 pm

quiver wrote:
manbear wrote:Do you think there are any indicators of how well one will do in law school?
No good ones.

manbear wrote:Are the standards for quality in law school so radically different from rigorous undergrad that undergrad GPA is completely unrelated to law school GPA?
Generally, yes.

manbear wrote:If success is completely unpredictable, such that successful students have nothing in common at all, then grades in law school are completely meaningless.
Not sure how that makes law school grades completely meaningless. Besides, common factor: all the top students did well on exams.


+1000 to all of these.

Your undergrad GPA means almost nothing, your undergrad school means nothing, your LSAT means very, very little, and unless you want to be an attorney and take the risk you will end up unemployed and probably a lot in debt, don't go to law school. Kthnxbai.

manbear
Posts: 18
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2012 5:12 pm

Re: Is Any Optimism Justified?

Postby manbear » Sun Aug 19, 2012 2:54 pm

fatduck wrote:"just because you can't predict it" means you can't predict it, bro, it doesn't mean it's completely unpredictable. i'm sure if you had enough data on the various attributes of the entering class you could make a decent guess as to where people would shake out in class rank, but you don't have that data, do you?


This is a passive and self-defeating sentiment. I'm aware that I don't have enough data. I'm trying to get more! I'm sure I won't be able to predict my success perfectly; I'm only trying to make a better prediction than I would be able to if I did nothing.

It is nonsensical to say that something is predictable but nobody can actually perform that prediction. I may only be able to make a weak prediction but I'll take what I can get... I don't understand why you are so defeatist about this idea.

User avatar
spleenworship
Posts: 4421
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2011 11:08 pm

Re: Is Any Optimism Justified?

Postby spleenworship » Sun Aug 19, 2012 2:57 pm

manbear wrote:
fatduck wrote:"just because you can't predict it" means you can't predict it, bro, it doesn't mean it's completely unpredictable. i'm sure if you had enough data on the various attributes of the entering class you could make a decent guess as to where people would shake out in class rank, but you don't have that data, do you?


This is a passive and self-defeating sentiment. I'm aware that I don't have enough data. I'm trying to get more! I'm sure I won't be able to predict my success perfectly; I'm only trying to make a better prediction than I would be able to if I did nothing.

It is nonsensical to say that something is predictable but nobody can actually perform that prediction. I may only be able to make a weak prediction but I'll take what I can get... I don't understand why you are so defeatist about this idea.



Is it realistic for you to interview each of your potential classmates, measure their typing speed, have a professor go over their answers to sample hypos, and put them through stress tests to find out their breaking point?

No?

Well then this isn't really very predictable for you, is it?
Last edited by spleenworship on Sun Aug 19, 2012 2:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.

manbear
Posts: 18
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2012 5:12 pm

Re: Is Any Optimism Justified?

Postby manbear » Sun Aug 19, 2012 2:57 pm

Bgibbs wrote:
A person with a 173/3.8 will have a big scholarship to schools in the T14 and potentially YSH acceptances, all of which are better options than a school between 25-75.


Perhaps I'm being conservative in estimating my chances of admission at various schools. I have not actually applied yet.




Return to “Choosing a Law School”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests