Class sizes and medians (c/o 2015)

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KevinP
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Re: Class sizes and medians (c/o 2015)

Postby KevinP » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:30 am

dissonance1848 wrote:I fucking hate this! So, schools reduce class sizes, making it hard to get into top schools. They then raise tuition a ton on 1Ls, who have even more debt, and increase the number of transfers, so as to dilute the pool of students, thereby creating no positve change for students who came as 1Ls for employment. What a sham!

Looks like the 2011-2012 cycle was the least competitve we'll ever see, that really blows.

This is a good point. Even if there is a overall decline in lawyer production, what's there really to stop elite schools from just raising tuition then just accepting more transfers to make up for the class size, thereby negating the added job prospects of declining enrollment if one attends said elite schools?
Last edited by KevinP on Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:32 am, edited 1 time in total.

thisguy456
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Re: Class sizes and medians (c/o 2015)

Postby thisguy456 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:32 am

dissonance1848 wrote:What do you mean Top30man? Look at the numbers. The declines in enrollment are offsetting the declines in test takers. Unless the number of test takers declines in the fall (and by more than 10%), it looks like this cycle will be just like 2010-2011, perhaps more competitive. Last year was the year to apply to law school. Damnit.


None of that has any impact on your gpa and how you score on the LSAT. If LSAT medians go down, and schools' medians dip below your LSAT score, this helps you regardless of class size.

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Re: Class sizes and medians (c/o 2015)

Postby JetsFan1990 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:36 am

dissonance1848 wrote:What do you mean Top30man? Look at the numbers. The declines in enrollment are offsetting the declines in test takers. Unless the number of test takers declines in the fall (and by more than 10%), it looks like this cycle will be just like 2010-2011, perhaps more competitive. Last year was the year to apply to law school. Damnit.


Right. Because more "top LSAT scorers" have opted to not go to LS, top schools are slimming class sizes in an effort to maintain the same caliber of student. I don't understand your reasoning, dissonance1848 (presumably a Phi Gam). If there are less 170+ scoring applicants, and less spots, it basically means that there isn't much of a change at all. It'll be just as easy this cycle as it was last cycle.

Also, great news for Fordham brehs. That's a serious drop in enrollment.

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KevinP
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Re: Class sizes and medians (c/o 2015)

Postby KevinP » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:39 am

JetsFan1990 wrote:Also, great news for Fordham brehs. That's a serious drop in enrollment.

Unless Fordham makes up for the declines using high tuition increases and transfers.

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Re: Class sizes and medians (c/o 2015)

Postby JetsFan1990 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:41 am

KevinP wrote:
JetsFan1990 wrote:Also, great news for Fordham brehs. That's a serious drop in enrollment.

Unless Fordham makes up for the declines using high tuition increases and transfers.


Which, as we all well know, is not uncharacteristic of LAWL schools. Fuck this shit. KevP, I hope you stuck by your earlier decision! haha

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romothesavior
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Re: Class sizes and medians (c/o 2015)

Postby romothesavior » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:54 am

dissonance1848 wrote:I fucking hate this! So, schools reduce class sizes, making it hard to get into top schools. They then raise tuition a ton on 1Ls, who have even more debt, and increase the number of transfers, so as to dilute the pool of students, thereby creating no positve change for students who came as 1Ls for employment. What a sham!

Looks like the 2011-2012 cycle was the least competitve we'll ever see, that really blows.

Current 3L here, and I have no idea what you are talking about. All I know is that if I had waited 2 years, I would have had a much, much larger scholarship to my current school (far more than the increases in tuition over that same span), and would have gotten into more T14s and maybe a few T10s, and would have had much better job prospects.

So what are you bitching about again?
Last edited by romothesavior on Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:58 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Ruxin1
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Re: Class sizes and medians (c/o 2015)

Postby Ruxin1 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:55 am

romothesavior wrote:
dissonance1848 wrote:I fucking hate this! So, schools reduce class sizes, making it hard to get into top schools. They then raise tuition a ton on 1Ls, who have even more debt, and increase the number of transfers, so as to dilute the pool of students, thereby creating no positve change for students who came as 1Ls for employment. What a sham!

Looks like the 2011-2012 cycle was the least competitve we'll ever see, that really blows.

Current 3L here, and I have no idea what you are talking about. All I know is that if I had waited 2 years, I would have had a much, much larger scholarship to my current school (far more than the increases in tuition over that same span), would have gotten into more T14s and likely a few T10s, and would have had much better job prospects.

So what are you bitching about again?


Yeah, I was under the impression schools ALREADY took a bunch of transfers, wouldn't you want to be competing against them with serious scholarship money off your debt-load?

otnemem
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Re: Class sizes and medians (c/o 2015)

Postby otnemem » Mon Aug 20, 2012 12:04 pm

Keep in mind, transfers are judged by firms on their class rank in their old school almost as much as the fact that they have been accepted at their new school. So if T14s start to accept transfers who would have had no shot at a big firm job from their old school, its unlikely that they will be taking away jobs from students who started at T14s. If NYU starts taking transfers who were top 1/4 or 1/3 at their TT, those individuals will probably have a rough OCI at NYU. (I understand that NYU will not have to dig that deeply, but I exaggerate to make a point.)

Also, transfer applications will possibly be down since there will be less 1Ls at a lot of the schools people typically transfer from.

In general, we should be happy that enrollment is going down as seems to be, it will make our lives slightly easier over the coming years.

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thelawyler
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Re: Class sizes and medians (c/o 2015)

Postby thelawyler » Mon Aug 20, 2012 12:16 pm

KevinP wrote:
dissonance1848 wrote:I fucking hate this! So, schools reduce class sizes, making it hard to get into top schools. They then raise tuition a ton on 1Ls, who have even more debt, and increase the number of transfers, so as to dilute the pool of students, thereby creating no positve change for students who came as 1Ls for employment. What a sham!

Looks like the 2011-2012 cycle was the least competitve we'll ever see, that really blows.

This is a good point. Even if there is a overall decline in lawyer production, what's there really to stop elite schools from just raising tuition then just accepting more transfers to make up for the class size, thereby negating the added job prospects of declining enrollment if one attends said elite schools?


Because those elite students who managed to transfer into elite schools would have probably had a shot at getting a Big Law job anyways from their old schools. And firms cannot hire them "twice" per say, so they may just end up hiring out of the transfer student's school less as maybe nearly the entire top 10% of certain schools transfer out.

But if those top 10% people are scholarship people, it might be less likely they flood out into the T14 if they were given substantial scholarships to go to that school in the first place. Remember, schools were handing out scholarships like candy this cycle.

People are thinking that only their peer school's enrollment is what will make finding employment easier. But even a 20% drop at schools lower down can help because generally firms do hire some people from the top 10-15% of those schools, and there will be fewer top 10-15% students across the board in law schools. So even if they do transfer to our schools, we are still left with fewer "high quality" applicants to firms.
Last edited by thelawyler on Mon Aug 20, 2012 12:25 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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KevinP
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Re: Class sizes and medians (c/o 2015)

Postby KevinP » Mon Aug 20, 2012 12:21 pm

^I was under the impression that law firms typically have set targets for the number of associates they hire from specific schools and that transfers are counted for this target. Furthermore, I thought transfers typically tend to be some of the most successful candidates at getting jobs.

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sunynp
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Re: Class sizes and medians (c/o 2015)

Postby sunynp » Mon Aug 20, 2012 12:25 pm

otnemem wrote:Keep in mind, transfers are judged by firms on their class rank in their old school almost as much as the fact that they have been accepted at their new school. So if T14s start to accept transfers who would have had no shot at a big firm job from their old school, its unlikely that they will be taking away jobs from students who started at T14s. If NYU starts taking transfers who were top 1/4 or 1/3 at their TT, those individuals will probably have a rough OCI at NYU. (I understand that NYU will not have to dig that deeply, but I exaggerate to make a point.)

Also, transfer applications will possibly be down since there will be less 1Ls at a lot of the schools people typically transfer from.

In general, we should be happy that enrollment is going down as seems to be, it will make our lives slightly easier over the coming years.

I think you are missing the big picture here. Applications and class sizes are down in large part because better information about how tight the job market is available. Schools now have to report the large number of students they had been placing in low paid fellowships largely ( but not in all cases) just to boost their employment stats.

There simply arent enough jobs. Have you looked closely at the numbers of solid SAs in your market. I've seen estimates of about 20-30 SAs in all of Denver - a location where there are 2 large law schools competing for jobs. According to campos, there were 2 public defenders total hired from CU law school last year.
Atlanta seems to be very small as well, and two top firms are deferring associates this year.
New York is recovering from the lowest market filled with deferrals and layoffs, but how many SAs do you think there are from all the schools that are interviewing for them? Even with reduced class sizes, there are more qualified applicants than there are jobs.

Don't forget the reason that these numbers are down. I expect as more accurate information continues to be released, enrollment will continue to drop.
Last edited by sunynp on Mon Aug 20, 2012 12:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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thelawyler
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Re: Class sizes and medians (c/o 2015)

Postby thelawyler » Mon Aug 20, 2012 12:26 pm

KevinP wrote:^I was under the impression that law firms typically have set targets for the number of associates they hire from specific schools and that transfers are counted for this target. Furthermore, I thought transfers typically tend to be some of the most successful candidates at getting jobs.

Even if schools do have a strict target, at worst our chances at gaining employment is probably about the same then as before. At best, it's probably a bit easier (5-10%? haha).

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KevinP
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Re: Class sizes and medians (c/o 2015)

Postby KevinP » Mon Aug 20, 2012 12:30 pm

@sunynp
I'm wondering... are you a law student/law grad?

thelawyler wrote:Even if schools do have a strict target, at worst our chances at gaining employment is probably about the same then as before. At best, it's probably a bit easier (5-10%? haha).

True. At this point, I'm just always on the lookout as to how law schools can screw law students' job prospects in order to make themselves more money.

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thelawyler
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Re: Class sizes and medians (c/o 2015)

Postby thelawyler » Mon Aug 20, 2012 12:36 pm

KevinP wrote:@sunynp
I'm wondering... are you a law student/law grad?

thelawyler wrote:Even if schools do have a strict target, at worst our chances at gaining employment is probably about the same then as before. At best, it's probably a bit easier (5-10%? haha).

True. At this point, I'm just always on the lookout as to how law schools can screw law students' job prospects in order to make themselves more money.


I totally understand your paranoia. When I heard about the drop in enrollment, my instant reaction was "omg, how much is my tuition going to increase next year after I'm locked in?!" Hopefully employment is easier to find to balance it out.

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Re: Class sizes and medians (c/o 2015)

Postby TLSwag » Mon Aug 20, 2012 12:38 pm

sunynp wrote:
otnemem wrote:Keep in mind, transfers are judged by firms on their class rank in their old school almost as much as the fact that they have been accepted at their new school. So if T14s start to accept transfers who would have had no shot at a big firm job from their old school, its unlikely that they will be taking away jobs from students who started at T14s. If NYU starts taking transfers who were top 1/4 or 1/3 at their TT, those individuals will probably have a rough OCI at NYU. (I understand that NYU will not have to dig that deeply, but I exaggerate to make a point.)

Also, transfer applications will possibly be down since there will be less 1Ls at a lot of the schools people typically transfer from.

In general, we should be happy that enrollment is going down as seems to be, it will make our lives slightly easier over the coming years.

I think you are missing the big picture here. Applications and class sizes are down in large part because better information about how tight the job market is available. Schools now have to report the large number of students they had been placing in low paid fellowships largely ( but not in all cases) just to boost their employment stats.

There simply arent enough jobs. Have you looked closely at the numbers of solid SAs in your market. I've seen estimates of about 20-30 SAs in all of Denver - a location where there are 2 large law schools competing for jobs. According to campos, there were 2 public defenders total hired from CU law school last year.
Atlanta seems to be very small as well, and two top firms are deferring associates this year.
New York is recovering from the lowest market filled with deferrals and layoffs, but how many SAs do you think there are from all the schools that are interviewing for them? Even with reduced class sizes, there are more qualified applicants than there are jobs.

Don't forget the reason that these numbers are down. I expect as more accurate information continues to be released, enrollment will continue to drop.


i find it hard to believe that a few websites like LST are triggering "in large part" the decrease in apps/class sizes. probably more indicative of ITE in general

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thelawyler
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Re: Class sizes and medians (c/o 2015)

Postby thelawyler » Mon Aug 20, 2012 12:41 pm

No, I think as the economy worsens, we should normally expect more students to try their hand at law schools (as we saw in 2009). But with all the recent negative press and more transparency, many applicants are turning away.

When I've been telling people I'm going to school, many people comment on the bad prospects. This is a good thing.

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KevinP
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Re: Class sizes and medians (c/o 2015)

Postby KevinP » Mon Aug 20, 2012 12:47 pm

I really hope the applicant pool continues to decline. There was far too many law school grads before ITE, and the situation has only worsened.

JetsFan1990 wrote:Which, as we all well know, is not uncharacteristic of LAWL schools. Fuck this shit. KevP, I hope you stuck by your earlier decision! haha

I actually did stick by my earlier decision, and I couldn't be happier.
Last edited by KevinP on Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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AllDangle
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Re: Class sizes and medians (c/o 2015)

Postby AllDangle » Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:00 pm

Any word on UVA's new medians? I'm pretty sure they had orientation today.

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sunynp
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Re: Class sizes and medians (c/o 2015)

Postby sunynp » Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:13 pm

KevinP wrote:@sunynp
I'm wondering... are you a law student/law grad?

thelawyler wrote:Even if schools do have a strict target, at worst our chances at gaining employment is probably about the same then as before. At best, it's probably a bit easier (5-10%? haha).

True. At this point, I'm just always on the lookout as to how law schools can screw law students' job prospects in order to make themselves more money.

Law grad. Waiting to start job in NYC.

TLSwag
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Re: Class sizes and medians (c/o 2015)

Postby TLSwag » Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:19 pm

AllDangle wrote:Any word on UVA's new medians? I'm pretty sure they had orientation today.


ya already know they are gonna stay the same haha

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Dr. Filth
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Re: Class sizes and medians (c/o 2015)

Postby Dr. Filth » Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:53 pm

TLSwag wrote:
AllDangle wrote:Any word on UVA's new medians? I'm pretty sure they had orientation today.


ya already know they are gonna stay the same haha

GPA could always go higher.

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Re: Class sizes and medians (c/o 2015)

Postby dingbat » Mon Aug 20, 2012 3:05 pm

KevinP wrote:
JetsFan1990 wrote:Also, great news for Fordham brehs. That's a serious drop in enrollment.

Unless Fordham makes up for the declines using high tuition increases and transfers.
I don't have the figures available right now but the tuituon increase from last year to this year is reasonable (a few percent)

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KevinP
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Re: Class sizes and medians (c/o 2015)

Postby KevinP » Mon Aug 20, 2012 3:39 pm

^
Gotcha. Let's hope it stays that way.

Some TTTT data:
Valparaiso: 163 down from 218. That's a 25.22% decline.

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justonemoregame
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Re: Class sizes and medians (c/o 2015)

Postby justonemoregame » Mon Aug 20, 2012 4:06 pm

Law schools have no business raising already exorbitant tuition in this climate. Fordham is already laughable at sticker - a few percentage points here, a few the next year - all of a sudden full freight is well north of a quarter of a million.

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Re: Class sizes and medians (c/o 2015)

Postby ajax » Mon Aug 20, 2012 4:45 pm

justonemoregame wrote:Law schools have no business raising already exorbitant tuition in this climate. Fordham is already laughable at sticker - a few percentage points here, a few the next year - all of a sudden full freight is well north of a quarter of a million.



This x 1000. I'm not sure what Dingbat is talking about when he/she mentions a "reasonable" increase in tuition at Fordham. Especially when 62% Fordham's most recent graduating class found jobs that actually required the degree Fordham provided. Raising tuition after that performance is downright disgusting.




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