otnemem wrote:Keep in mind, transfers are judged by firms on their class rank in their old school almost as much as the fact that they have been accepted at their new school. So if T14s start to accept transfers who would have had no shot at a big firm job from their old school, its unlikely that they will be taking away jobs from students who started at T14s. If NYU starts taking transfers who were top 1/4 or 1/3 at their TT, those individuals will probably have a rough OCI at NYU. (I understand that NYU will not have to dig that deeply, but I exaggerate to make a point.)
Also, transfer applications will possibly be down since there will be less 1Ls at a lot of the schools people typically transfer from.
In general, we should be happy that enrollment is going down as seems to be, it will make our lives slightly easier over the coming years.
I think you are missing the big picture here. Applications and class sizes are down in large part because better information about how tight the job market is available. Schools now have to report the large number of students they had been placing in low paid fellowships largely ( but not in all cases) just to boost their employment stats.
There simply arent enough jobs. Have you looked closely at the numbers of solid SAs in your market. I've seen estimates of about 20-30 SAs in all of Denver - a location where there are 2 large law schools competing for jobs. According to campos, there were 2 public defenders total hired from CU law school last year.
Atlanta seems to be very small as well, and two top firms are deferring associates this year.
New York is recovering from the lowest market filled with deferrals and layoffs, but how many SAs do you think there are from all the schools that are interviewing for them? Even with reduced class sizes, there are more qualified applicants than there are jobs.
Don't forget the reason that these numbers are down. I expect as more accurate information continues to be released, enrollment will continue to drop.