GW at 3k scholly or WM at 14k

(Rankings, Profiles, Tuition, Student Life, . . . )

GW or WM?

George Washington at 3,000 in scholarship
6
21%
William & Mary at 14,000 in scholarship
23
79%
 
Total votes: 29

Wooglin1989
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GW at 3k scholly or WM at 14k

Postby Wooglin1989 » Sun Jul 01, 2012 4:44 pm

George Washington gave me 3,000 a year and William & Mary gave me 14,000 on a graduate fellowship. The fellowship requires I work 8 hours a week at the school. I already have a lease in Williamsburg on an apartment for 12 months, and was recently taken from waitlist at GW. (we are going on the assumption I can get out of this lease)

William & Mary's tuition is already 10,000 cheaper than GW, so the difference is actually more like 21,000 a year not including cost of living.

I'm willing to move around after school for a job so I'm generally indifferent to location. I am not going to take a year off and retake the LSAT and I am hell bent on going to law school this fall. I'm not entirely sure what type of law I want to go into, but I'm a big mock trial guy and love trial litigation.

My intuition tells me I should go to WM because it's cheaper and it seems to be a widely accepted assumption that WM will move back up in the rankings next year. On the other hand, I fear that GW could fall from grace next year because they employ a rather large percentage of their own students to boost their employment statistics which, as I understand it, will not be the case in 2013 and it weighs heavy in the mystical ranking process.

So I'm curious what everyone else thinks. Advice is always appreciated.

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Ruxin1
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Re: GW at 3k scholly or WM at 14k

Postby Ruxin1 » Sun Jul 01, 2012 4:59 pm

Wooglin1989 wrote:George Washington gave me 3,000 a year and William & Mary gave me 14,000 on a graduate fellowship. The fellowship requires I work 8 hours a week at the school. I already have a lease in Williamsburg on an apartment for 12 months, and was recently taken from waitlist at GW. (we are going on the assumption I can get out of this lease)

William & Mary's tuition is already 10,000 cheaper than GW, so the difference is actually more like 21,000 a year not including cost of living.

I'm willing to move around after school for a job so I'm generally indifferent to location. I am not going to take a year off and retake the LSAT and I am hell bent on going to law school this fall. I'm not entirely sure what type of law I want to go into, but I'm a big mock trial guy and love trial litigation.

My intuition tells me I should go to WM because it's cheaper and it seems to be a widely accepted assumption that WM will move back up in the rankings next year. On the other hand, I fear that GW could fall from grace next year because they employ a rather large percentage of their own students to boost their employment statistics which, as I understand it, will not be the case in 2013 and it weighs heavy in the mystical ranking process.

So I'm curious what everyone else thinks. Advice is always appreciated.


You got into Pitt where you have strong ties, but want to go to an out of region school that is not T-14 and want to go back, makes a lot of sense. You are hell bent on going this year, enjoy shitty job prospects below top 20% and still paying back hella loans.

Wooglin1989
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Re: GW at 3k scholly or WM at 14k

Postby Wooglin1989 » Sun Jul 01, 2012 5:10 pm

You got into Pitt where you have strong ties, but want to go to an out of region school that is not T-14 and want to go back, makes a lot of sense. You are hell bent on going this year, enjoy shitty job prospects below top 20% and still paying back hella loans.


I declined the offer to Pitt, and although I would like to move back to the area some day, I'm very open to practicing wherever I can get a job....

Once you're done with the crystal ball, however, why don't you pass it along to somebody else who knows how to stay on topic.

If you want to complain about the woes of a legal career, kindly direct your post to the other 8,000 threads of people moaning about getting into a field with 2.1 percent unemployment and 113,000 median annual income. I'm looking long term here....

Next please.

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sunynp
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Re: GW at 3k scholly or WM at 14k

Postby sunynp » Sun Jul 01, 2012 5:24 pm

Wooglin1989 wrote:
You got into Pitt where you have strong ties, but want to go to an out of region school that is not T-14 and want to go back, makes a lot of sense. You are hell bent on going this year, enjoy shitty job prospects below top 20% and still paying back hella loans.


I declined the offer to Pitt, and although I would like to move back to the area some day, I'm very open to practicing wherever I can get a job....

Once you're done with the crystal ball, however, why don't you pass it along to somebody else who knows how to stay on topic.

If you want to complain about the woes of a legal career, kindly direct your post to the other 8,000 threads of people moaning about getting into a field with 2.1 percent unemployment and 113,000 median annual income. I'm looking long term here....

Next please.

where does the 2.1 unemployment figure come from? for recent grads it is closer to 50%.

I think GW is not worth it for basically sticker. If WM is cheaper just go there.

Wooglin1989
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Re: GW at 3k scholly or WM at 14k

Postby Wooglin1989 » Sun Jul 01, 2012 5:42 pm

http://www.cooley.edu/news/2011/081111_ ... _high.html

I really don't want this to turn into yet another one of these threads, but the above link is one of the sauces. I'm an economist, I trust the Bureau of Labor stastics. I misquoted it though, attorneys are estimated to have a 1.5% unemployment rate, and legal occupations as a whole are at 2.7%.

Yeah I agree William & Mary seems like the better deal out of the two, it would be cool to live in DC but their tuition is atrocious.

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top30man
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Re: GW at 3k scholly or WM at 14k

Postby top30man » Sun Jul 01, 2012 5:47 pm

A cooley study? Is this serious?

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Flips88
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Re: GW at 3k scholly or WM at 14k

Postby Flips88 » Sun Jul 01, 2012 5:52 pm

$3,000 at GW is basically no scholarship and you'll still end up with $225k+ in loans. Not worth it in my opinion.

W&M is a lot more financially wise choice since you'd only come out with $120k or so. Both will generally limit you regionally though.

Wooglin1989
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Re: GW at 3k scholly or WM at 14k

Postby Wooglin1989 » Sun Jul 01, 2012 5:58 pm

top30man wrote:A cooley study? Is this serious?


Well there's simply no fighting it at this point.

It's not just a Cooley study, go play on the Bureau of Labor statistics website. I'll save you some trouble though

http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes231011.htm


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 20440.html

Yeah recent graduates are having trouble finding good jobs, but that is simply the short term story. The legal market on the aggregate is not only in tact but it's actual outperforming most other sectors.

Now could someone go full retard and pay sticker at a T4 and have trouble for quite some time, yes. But that isn't my situation. While we're on the topic I'm sick of this automated wait and retake LSAT reflex. Fact is applications are down because people are hyping up the "bad legal market" even though long term outlook is pretty safe. That means there are bargain deals going around this cycle and maybe by the next cycle people are going to be over the panic and applications will be ramped up again.

Wooglin1989
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Re: GW at 3k scholly or WM at 14k

Postby Wooglin1989 » Sun Jul 01, 2012 5:59 pm

Flips88 wrote:$3,000 at GW is basically no scholarship and you'll still end up with $225k+ in loans. Not worth it in my opinion.

W&M is a lot more financially wise choice since you'd only come out with $120k or so. Both will generally limit you regionally though.



Thank you, I'm with you 100% on this. You're making me feel a lot better about this decision.

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Ruxin1
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Re: GW at 3k scholly or WM at 14k

Postby Ruxin1 » Sun Jul 01, 2012 6:02 pm

Wooglin1989 wrote:I scored in the low 160s but have a Gpa at exceeds a 3.8.... I don't know if I could sit out a year, I want to get on with my life. I've scored as high as 168 on practice exams


You have a GPA above median at almost every t-14, and obviously have the competence for a mid 160s score. Don't be in a rush.

Employment stats bruh

--LinkRemoved--

17/204 in firms of 50 or more...
Last edited by Ruxin1 on Sun Jul 01, 2012 6:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Nova
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Re: GW at 3k scholly or WM at 14k

Postby Nova » Sun Jul 01, 2012 6:05 pm

Wooglin1989 wrote:
Flips88 wrote:$3,000 at GW is basically no scholarship and you'll still end up with $225k+ in loans. Not worth it in my opinion.

W&M is a lot more financially wise choice since you'd only come out with $120k or so. Both will generally limit you regionally though.



Thank you, I'm with you 100% on this. You're making me feel a lot better about this decision.


I agree too. WM makes much more financial sense. The poll reflects that also.
Last edited by Nova on Sun Jul 01, 2012 6:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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sunynp
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Re: GW at 3k scholly or WM at 14k

Postby sunynp » Sun Jul 01, 2012 6:08 pm

Wooglin1989 wrote:http://www.cooley.edu/news/2011/081111_lawyer_employment_rates_high.html

I really don't want this to turn into yet another one of these threads, but the above link is one of the sauces. I'm an economist, I trust the Bureau of Labor stastics. I misquoted it though, attorneys are estimated to have a 1.5% unemployment rate, and legal occupations as a whole are at 2.7%.

Yeah I agree William & Mary seems like the better deal out of the two, it would be cool to live in DC but their tuition is atrocious.


You realize you can't compare employment among lawyers with different years of experience, right? For lawyers the most important employment is comparison for the past few graduating classes. That number is close to 50% unemployed.

I'm not sure why you aren't willing to at least discuss this discrepancy. People are trying to help you make a good decision that wont screw up your life.

For sure GW at sticker is a terrible mistake. So go with the cheaper one if you insist on doing this.

Wooglin1989
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Re: GW at 3k scholly or WM at 14k

Postby Wooglin1989 » Sun Jul 01, 2012 6:28 pm

You realize you can't compare employment among lawyers with different years of experience, right? For lawyers the most important employment is comparison for the past few graduating classes. That number is close to 50% unemployed.

I'm not sure why you aren't willing to at least discuss this discrepancy. People are trying to help you make a good decision that wont screw up your life.

For sure GW at sticker is a terrible mistake. So go with the cheaper one if you insist on doing this.


Experience and education are always difficult variables to play with. I'm not trying to compare a person fresh out of law school to someone with 20 years at big law. Eventually though, people seeking legal employment find it. They might not 9 months after graduating, it might take 13. It might not start at 100,000, but the data supports a trend that lawyers do eventually find good employment. Otherwise the unemployment rate would be rising, and median salary decreasing every year. Its actually gone up slightly. Recent graduates are struggling to find jobs, but that isn't unique to just lawyers. I'm confident the market is going to turn around, it's not all loom and gloom.

I anticipate more people coming to this realization next year. I suppose I am open for discussion on it though. I think more people are going to realize that legal career job prospects aren't as bad as everyone makes it out to be. This will create a harsher applicant pool to compete with. The LSAT can be a bit of gamble. I don't think the risk of facing a more stringent applicant pool exceeds the benefit of a potentially better score.

But I'll hear you out.

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Teflon_Jeff
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Re: GW at 3k scholly or WM at 14k

Postby Teflon_Jeff » Sun Jul 01, 2012 6:29 pm

120+K is still probably too expensive for W&M. It's the lesser of two evils here, but a retake would open up some better school/scholarships/both.

I don't think you'd be insane to do W&M, but I also don't think it's a better option than retaking.

timbs4339
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Re: GW at 3k scholly or WM at 14k

Postby timbs4339 » Sun Jul 01, 2012 6:57 pm

Wooglin1989 wrote:
You realize you can't compare employment among lawyers with different years of experience, right? For lawyers the most important employment is comparison for the past few graduating classes. That number is close to 50% unemployed.

I'm not sure why you aren't willing to at least discuss this discrepancy. People are trying to help you make a good decision that wont screw up your life.

For sure GW at sticker is a terrible mistake. So go with the cheaper one if you insist on doing this.


Experience and education are always difficult variables to play with. I'm not trying to compare a person fresh out of law school to someone with 20 years at big law. Eventually though, people seeking legal employment find it. They might not 9 months after graduating, it might take 13. It might not start at 100,000, but the data supports a trend that lawyers do eventually find good employment. Otherwise the unemployment rate would be rising, and median salary decreasing every year. Its actually gone up slightly. Recent graduates are struggling to find jobs, but that isn't unique to just lawyers. I'm confident the market is going to turn around, it's not all loom and gloom.

I anticipate more people coming to this realization next year. I suppose I am open for discussion on it though. I think more people are going to realize that legal career job prospects aren't as bad as everyone makes it out to be. This will create a harsher applicant pool to compete with. The LSAT can be a bit of gamble. I don't think the risk of facing a more stringent applicant pool exceeds the benefit of a potentially better score.

But I'll hear you out.


You are probably trolling but I'll give it a shot:

1) This study is the unemployment rate for lawyers. Since many of the people who don't get jobs don't become lawyers or leave the profession after a few year, it's missing a huge part of the denominator and thus is only going to measure the folks between jobs. The proper statistic is employment among JDs.

2) The data you are relying on is irrelevant. Those lawyers with 20 years experience didn't graduate into a market with twice as many JDs as total job openings (that includes temp and part-time work). They didn't graduate with 200K of debt like you'll be doing if you go to GW, or even 100+K like you'll be doing at W+M. And your assumption that the market will come back is unwarranted. You are using a single statistic and trying to generalize across a very diverse industry of which the entry-level job market is only a small facet. As to your belief that this is cyclical, at this point, you don't have enough information to tell if the market will jump back. If the best you can do is "uncertain" it is not a good idea to take out that amount of certain debt for the schools you have listed, especially if you are able to get better acceptances/more money.

The more important statistic for you if you want to gauge the overall legal market is this: there are 45,000 JDs graduated annually. There are 25,000 new job openings. Some of those include part-time, temp, and jobs filling by people ahead of you in the queue. Do the math.

3) As pointed out already, you have failed to apply a critical eye to information published by one of the worst actors in the mess that is legal education. While the fact that they are a gigantic diploma mill run blatantly for the benefit of their top administrators doesn't dismiss what they say entirely, it calls into question your own rationality about this process.

If you won't listen to the posters ITT and retake, please negotiate for more money. GW is giving insane amounts of money to people off the waitlist. They will probably bump your scholarship and if not do you really want to be the kid who couldn't wrangle more money out of one of the most desperate schools in the country right now?
Last edited by timbs4339 on Sun Jul 01, 2012 8:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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catholicgirl
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Re: GW at 3k scholly or WM at 14k

Postby catholicgirl » Sun Jul 01, 2012 7:00 pm

timbs4339 wrote:
Wooglin1989 wrote:

If you won't listen to the posters ITT and retake, please negotiate for more money. GW is giving insane amounts of money to people off the waitlist. They will probably bump your scholarship and if not do you really want to be the kid who couldn't wrangle more money out of one of the most desperate schools in the country right now?


No one is being crueler to you ITT than reality will be once you graduate from either of these institutions with massive amounts of debt. If anything, please negotiate with GW.

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monkey85
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Re: GW at 3k scholly or WM at 14k

Postby monkey85 » Sun Jul 01, 2012 7:27 pm

catholicgirl wrote:No one is being crueler to you ITT than reality will be once you graduate from either of these institutions with massive amounts of debt. If anything, please negotiate with GW.


Agree. Negotiate for more money from GW.

They took you off the waitlist. Now they'll want to at least throw a little something more at you, otherwise they'll lose you and lower their offer/acceptance yield. Give it a shot.

CanadianWolf
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Re: GW at 3k scholly or WM at 14k

Postby CanadianWolf » Sun Jul 01, 2012 7:38 pm

Wm. & Mary is the better choice due to much lower total COA. But, with a GPA above 3.8 & only one sitting for the LSAT, consider retaking & reapplying next cycle since apps should be down even further.

Wm. & Mary may offer additional scholarships, but I believe that you need to apply for them. Ask GWU for $25,000 per year (about half tuition).

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sunynp
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Re: GW at 3k scholly or WM at 14k

Postby sunynp » Sun Jul 01, 2012 8:28 pm

Some recent articles on the employment rates for new grads: I found these in a very simple google search. None of them are more than a week old.

Members of the law-school class of 2011 had little better than a 50-50 shot of landing a job as a lawyer within nine months of receiving a degree, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of new data that provides the most detailed picture yet of the grim market for law jobs.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 58142.html

The Great Recession has wreaked havoc on the job market for law school graduates, but newly released data from the American Bar Association paints a bleaker picture about entry-level employment than previously thought. Slightly more than half of the Class of 2011 - 55 percent - had found full-time, permanent jobs as lawyers nine months after graduation.

It was the worst job market in more than 30 years, according to the National Association for Law Placement. The employment outlook wasn't looking much better for the Class of 2012, but official figures won't be released until next year.

Full-time, long-term employment in a legal job is obviously the best possible outcome of attending law school. Graduates who don't land lawyer jobs generally earn less than those who do. But this is the first time the American Bar Association has required law schools to break out that figure when reporting job statistics to the association, which regulates legal education.


Read more here: --LinkRemoved--

--LinkRemoved--

Forbes: Why attending law school is the worst career decision you will ever make.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jmaureenhen ... ever-make/


http://lawprofessors.typepad.com/legalwhiteboard/ : I couldn't link it directly but look at these two:
Tuesday, June 26, 2012

These Data Will Fundamentally Reshape the Legal Education Industry

and

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

More Job Market Data Showing a Structural Shift


From a couple of weeks ago:
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505145_162- ... en-ticket/

http://chronicle.com/article/Unemployme ... aw/132189/

http://www.law.com/jsp/nlj/PubArticleNL ... e_law_jobs

http://www.law.com/jsp/nlj/PubArticleNL ... 2558291685

And take a look at the data on this site for your schools:
--LinkRemoved--
Last edited by sunynp on Sun Jul 01, 2012 9:40 pm, edited 7 times in total.

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Wily
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Re: GW at 3k scholly or WM at 14k

Postby Wily » Sun Jul 01, 2012 8:36 pm

Bro, I'd give my left nut for a GPA anywhere close to yours. I got into GWU this year with $27k/year, and I still retook in June to try to get higher so I can maybe get into a T14. You should retake and reapply.

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Flips88
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Re: GW at 3k scholly or WM at 14k

Postby Flips88 » Sun Jul 01, 2012 8:41 pm

Wily wrote:Bro, I'd give my left nut for a GPA anywhere close to yours. I got into GWU this year with $27k/year, and I still retook in June to try to get higher so I can maybe get into a T14. You should retake and reapply.

Man, application cycle is completely different from last year. I got $0 from GW with a 165/4.0.

Wooglin1989
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Re: GW at 3k scholly or WM at 14k

Postby Wooglin1989 » Sun Jul 01, 2012 8:42 pm

You are probably trolling but I'll give it a shot:

1) This study is the unemployment rate for lawyers. Since many of the people who don't get jobs don't become lawyers or leave the profession after a few year, it's missing a huge part of the denominator and thus is only going to measure the folks between jobs. The proper statistic is employment among JDs.

2) The data you are relying on is irrelevant. Those lawyers with 20 years experience didn't graduate into a market with twice as many JDs as total job openings (that includes temp and part-time work). They didn't graduate with 200K of debt like you'll be doing if you go to GW, or even 100+K like you'll be doing at W+M. And your assumption that the market will come back is unwarranted. You are using a single statistic and trying to generalize across a very diverse industry of which the entry-level job market is only a small facet. As to your belief that this is cyclical, at this point, you don't have enough information to tell if the market will jump back. If the best you can do is "uncertain" it is not a good idea to take out that amount of certain debt for the schools you have listed, especially if you are able to get better acceptances/more money.

The more important statistic for you if you want to gauge the overall legal market is this: there are 45,000 JDs graduated annually. There are 25,000 new job openings. Some of those include part-time, temp, and jobs filling by people ahead of you in the queue. Do the math.

3) As pointed out already, you have failed to apply a critical eye to information published by one of the worst actors in the mess that is legal education. While the fact that they are a gigantic diploma mill run blatantly for the profit of their top administrators doesn't dismiss what they say entirely, it calls into question your own rationality about this process.

If you won't listen to the posters ITT and retake, please negotiate for more money. GW is giving insane amounts of money to people off the waitlist. They will probably bump your scholarship and if not do you really want to be the kid who couldn't wrangle more money out of one of the most desperate schools in the country right now?


Well, I'm not trolling, I guess you'll just have to take my word on that though. First let me clear the air here. I copy pasted the wrong link after a quick search on google because someone requested the source of my post, the Cooley one I copied by accident. I was citing the Wall Street and the BLS, which I linked somewhere in my other replies.

Anyway, You are correct that the BLS does not collect data on discouraged workers who have a JD but decided to no longer seek employment as a lawyer. However let's break this down. Your number of 25,000 is a little low, I've read it could be as high or higher than 30,000 but let's meet just about half way and say 28,000 jobs are available for 45,000 students. That means we're looking at 17,000 graduates who are unemployed. For arguments sake, I'll generously assume every student who graduated is immediately seeking employment as a lawyer (no one furthering their education with an LLM, people who wanted to enter a different field or what have you). The market crashed in 2008, this isn't a development that just happened last week, and the market has been pretty flat ever since. So we should be seeing a surplus of 17,000 graduates who can't get a job every year. Take this times the last 4 years and we get 68,000 JD grads who can't get a job.

Currently we have 728,200 lawyers employed in the US. 68,000 divided by 728,200 gives us an unemployment rate of 9.33 percent. The natural rate of unemployment for lawyers should be at least one and a half percent. That means the total unemployment rate, if that many lawyers were not finding jobs should be 10.8%. However, the BLS reports that the number is roughly 2 percent. For your position to be correct, you are saying that 8% of the market is composed of discouraged lawyers who completely gave up looking for a job as an attorney. 8 percent of 728,200 is 58,256.

Therefore you're telling me of the alleged 68,000 recent graduates who could not find employment, all but 10,000 of them completely gave up trying to be lawyers? I know I made some gross assumptions here but I gotta be in the ball park and honestly I think this number is a little low... that means 85.6 percent gave up looking for employment as a lawyer? If it came out to 5 or 10 percent, I'd find it more believable.

But okay I'll bite, even if nearly 9 our of 10 unemployed JD grads stopped seeking employment as a lawyer, I'm going to a decently ranked school. Let's say the jobs were disturbed by school rank and class rank. Theres maybe 12,000 students ahead of me if I was last in my class at William & Mary. If the market has 28,000 jobs available. Looks like I'm making the cut. I know that's a gross assumption as well but it's not like WM is a tier 4 school is my point.

I don't know, I'm typing this on the fly but I'll be here all night feel free to shoot holes in it.

Wooglin1989
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Re: GW at 3k scholly or WM at 14k

Postby Wooglin1989 » Sun Jul 01, 2012 8:44 pm

Flips88 wrote:
Wily wrote:Bro, I'd give my left nut for a GPA anywhere close to yours. I got into GWU this year with $27k/year, and I still retook in June to try to get higher so I can maybe get into a T14. You should retake and reapply.

Man, application cycle is completely different from last year. I got $0 from GW with a 165/4.0.



I second that statement. This application cycle is generous. I don't want to bank on it continuing to be generous.

FloridaCoastalorbust
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Re: GW at 3k scholly or WM at 14k

Postby FloridaCoastalorbust » Sun Jul 01, 2012 8:46 pm

you are making a huge mistake going to law school this fall.

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sunynp
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Re: GW at 3k scholly or WM at 14k

Postby sunynp » Sun Jul 01, 2012 8:48 pm

Wooglin1989 wrote:
You are probably trolling but I'll give it a shot:

1) This study is the unemployment rate for lawyers. Since many of the people who don't get jobs don't become lawyers or leave the profession after a few year, it's missing a huge part of the denominator and thus is only going to measure the folks between jobs. The proper statistic is employment among JDs.

2) The data you are relying on is irrelevant. Those lawyers with 20 years experience didn't graduate into a market with twice as many JDs as total job openings (that includes temp and part-time work). They didn't graduate with 200K of debt like you'll be doing if you go to GW, or even 100+K like you'll be doing at W+M. And your assumption that the market will come back is unwarranted. You are using a single statistic and trying to generalize across a very diverse industry of which the entry-level job market is only a small facet. As to your belief that this is cyclical, at this point, you don't have enough information to tell if the market will jump back. If the best you can do is "uncertain" it is not a good idea to take out that amount of certain debt for the schools you have listed, especially if you are able to get better acceptances/more money.

The more important statistic for you if you want to gauge the overall legal market is this: there are 45,000 JDs graduated annually. There are 25,000 new job openings. Some of those include part-time, temp, and jobs filling by people ahead of you in the queue. Do the math.

3) As pointed out already, you have failed to apply a critical eye to information published by one of the worst actors in the mess that is legal education. While the fact that they are a gigantic diploma mill run blatantly for the profit of their top administrators doesn't dismiss what they say entirely, it calls into question your own rationality about this process.

If you won't listen to the posters ITT and retake, please negotiate for more money. GW is giving insane amounts of money to people off the waitlist. They will probably bump your scholarship and if not do you really want to be the kid who couldn't wrangle more money out of one of the most desperate schools in the country right now?


Well, I'm not trolling, I guess you'll just have to take my word on that though. First let me clear the air here. I copy pasted the wrong link after a quick search on google because someone requested the source of my post, the Cooley one I copied by accident. I was citing the Wall Street and the BLS, which I linked somewhere in my other replies.

Anyway, You are correct that the BLS does not collect data on discouraged workers who have a JD but decided to no longer seek employment as a lawyer. However let's break this down. Your number of 25,000 is a little low, I've read it could be as high or higher than 30,000 but let's meet just about half way and say 28,000 jobs are available for 45,000 students. That means we're looking at 17,000 graduates who are unemployed. For arguments sake, I'll generously assume every student who graduated is immediately seeking employment as a lawyer (no one furthering their education with an LLM, people who wanted to enter a different field or what have you). The market crashed in 2008, this isn't a development that just happened last week, and the market has been pretty flat ever since. So we should be seeing a surplus of 17,000 graduates who can't get a job every year. Take this times the last 4 years and we get 68,000 JD grads who can't get a job.

Currently we have 728,200 lawyers employed in the US. 68,000 divided by 728,200 gives us an unemployment rate of 9.33 percent. The natural rate of unemployment for lawyers should be at least one and a half percent. That means the total unemployment rate, if that many lawyers were not finding jobs should be 10.8%. However, the BLS reports that the number is roughly 2 percent. For your position to be correct, you are saying that 8% of the market is composed of discouraged lawyers who completely gave up looking for a job as an attorney. 8 percent of 728,200 is 58,256.

Therefore you're telling me of the alleged 68,000 recent graduates who could not find employment, all but 10,000 of them completely gave up trying to be lawyers? I know I made some gross assumptions here but I gotta be in the ball park and honestly I think this number is a little low... that means 85.6 percent gave up looking for employment as a lawyer? If it came out to 5 or 10 percent, I'd find it more believable.

But okay I'll bite, even if nearly 9 our of 10 unemployed JD grads stopped seeking employment as a lawyer, I'm going to a decently ranked school. Let's say the jobs were disturbed by school rank and class rank. Theres maybe 12,000 students ahead of me if I was last in my class at William & Mary. If the market has 28,000 jobs available. Looks like I'm making the cut. I know that's a gross assumption as well but it's not like WM is a tier 4 school is my point.

I don't know, I'm typing this on the fly but I'll be here all night feel free to shoot holes in it.


Please read some of the articles I linked to above. If you need more data on the reality of the market, I am happy to post more. As long as you are willing to keep an open mind when you read these articles, I am more than willing to give you the real scoop.




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