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Re: Class of 2011 Employment Statistics

Posted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 8:14 pm
by manofjustice
gardners2 wrote:
rayiner wrote:
RedBirds2011 wrote: To me, 80% is pretty good.


Again, it's not 80% of people getting a job that validates their $250k of tuition. It's 80% of people getting a job. People making $60k and trying to pay a $2,500/month loan payment on that are included in that 80%.


This is what I have been preaching since I went to law school. People will look at the numbers and see what they want to see - validation that they are making a great decision by going to law school.


And that is the real challenge: to yourself, to be realistic.

Re: Class of 2011 Employment Statistics

Posted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 8:18 pm
by manofjustice
One of the things I think you are discounting RedBirds is how smart people who go to T14s are. I am not saying anything about you. But T14s are full of very smart people. It's not that they are smarter than you, though they very well could be. But it is that you should have to assume that you are no smarter than the average T14 student. And then come three things that can hit you like a ton of bricks: the curve, luck, and gunners.

The T14 doesn't guarantee you shit. And when you start seeing half or more of the class either a) getting no jobs or b) getting jobs that don't justify the cost (and you better look at those LST and NALP stats carefully: for many of the T14, it's exactly like that...no 160K for the bottom 60% of the class, no sir...), and you start to realize that someone has to be in the bottom half of the class and you're a great candidate...

...then you start to realize.

Re: Class of 2011 Employment Statistics

Posted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 8:29 pm
by RedBirds2011
manofjustice wrote:
gardners2 wrote:
rayiner wrote:
RedBirds2011 wrote: To me, 80% is pretty good.


Again, it's not 80% of people getting a job that validates their $250k of tuition. It's 80% of people getting a job. People making $60k and trying to pay a $2,500/month loan payment on that are included in that 80%.


This is what I have been preaching since I went to law school. People will look at the numbers and see what they want to see - validation that they are making a great decision by going to law school.


And that is the real challenge: to yourself, to be realistic.



Exactly this. You have to be realistic and do your best to minimize the risk. That is literally it. Nothing else. Dingbat summed it up very nicely. Increase your odds of gettig a high paying job, minimize debt significantly, or just flat out don't go. I have no idea, gardners2, where you got the idea I was validating law school as this "great idea". Y'all put words in my mouth on these things all the time. However, to assume youre fucked and the only things going for you are odds and luck is a VERY debilitating mentality to have as well. Unless you are a 0L, it keeps you focused on all the wrong things.

Re: Class of 2011 Employment Statistics

Posted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 8:35 pm
by dingbat
manofjustice wrote:One of the things I think you are discounting RedBirds is how smart people who go to T14s are.

One thing that you're discounting is that being smart is not enough.

I've worked with some very senior people (senior partners, corporate board members) and they often tell me they don't want someone who's too smart - the smartest people usually aren't the best/hardest workers. They're happy to take the 2nd and 3rd smartest person and leave the most intelligent one behind, because intelligence alone is not enough.

When everyone getting into the top schools are freaking geniuses, seeing which ones are doing well and which ones are lagging behind, grade wise, is a good way of sorting out who's too smart for their own good, and who's willing to work their butt off to get the job done right.

Re: Class of 2011 Employment Statistics

Posted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 8:38 pm
by dingbat
manofjustice wrote:b) getting jobs that don't justify the cost

This again assumes that all students pay sticker. I don't think that less than 1/3 are getting some kind of scholly at any of the T14.(can someone look this up?)
Once you factor in the fact that a large portion are getting some kind of discount (scholly or LRAP) then a much larger proportion are getting jobs that justify the cost.

Re: Class of 2011 Employment Statistics

Posted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 8:42 pm
by RedBirds2011
manofjustice wrote:One of the things I think you are discounting RedBirds is how smart people who go to T14s are. I am not saying anything about you. But T14s are full of very smart people. It's not that they are smarter than you, though they very well could be. But it is that you should have to assume that you are no smarter than the average T14 student. And then come three things that can hit you like a ton of bricks: the curve, luck, and gunners.

The T14 doesn't guarantee you shit. And when you start seeing half or more of the class either a) getting no jobs or b) getting jobs that don't justify the cost (and you better look at those LST and NALP stats carefully: for many of the T14, it's exactly like that...no 160K for the bottom 60% of the class, no sir...), and you start to realize that someone has to be in the bottom half of the class and you're a great candidate...

...then you start to realize.




Im not sure how I have discounted a t14 students intelligence by even one word I have typed...lol

Re: Class of 2011 Employment Statistics

Posted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 8:58 pm
by NJPitcher
dingbat wrote:
manofjustice wrote:b) getting jobs that don't justify the cost

This again assumes that all students pay sticker. I don't think that less than 1/3 are getting some kind of scholly at any of the T14.(can someone look this up?)
Once you factor in the fact that a large portion are getting some kind of discount (scholly or LRAP) then a much larger proportion are getting jobs that justify the cost.


Some might argue that those who are getting the scholarships are the better students at the schools, and therefore need the scholarships less. Not saying it's the case, just that this would be an interesting study - I want to see the distribution of debt:(effective)income after graduation, not that those stats are available anywhere...

Re: Class of 2011 Employment Statistics

Posted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 9:06 pm
by dingbat
NJPitcher wrote:Some might argue that those who are getting the scholarships are the better students at the schools, and therefore need the scholarships less.

such a wonderful catch-22
It's too bad that rankings have forced schools to shift funds from need-based to merit-based scholarships, but then, we do like to think of this country as a meritocracy

Re: Class of 2011 Employment Statistics

Posted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 9:33 pm
by manofjustice
RedBirds2011 wrote:
manofjustice wrote:One of the things I think you are discounting RedBirds is how smart people who go to T14s are. I am not saying anything about you. But T14s are full of very smart people. It's not that they are smarter than you, though they very well could be. But it is that you should have to assume that you are no smarter than the average T14 student. And then come three things that can hit you like a ton of bricks: the curve, luck, and gunners.

The T14 doesn't guarantee you shit. And when you start seeing half or more of the class either a) getting no jobs or b) getting jobs that don't justify the cost (and you better look at those LST and NALP stats carefully: for many of the T14, it's exactly like that...no 160K for the bottom 60% of the class, no sir...), and you start to realize that someone has to be in the bottom half of the class and you're a great candidate...

...then you start to realize.




Im not sure how I have discounted a t14 students intelligence by even one word I have typed...lol


To be so caviler about the risk of going to law school, you have to assume it's likely that you'll do well--even at a T14. It's that unstated assumption, whether you recognize you're making it or not, that is discounting the academic challenge of a T14.

RE: Scholarships. Unless the scholarship is a full scholarship, it's not the solution. Tuition has been jacked up so high, by historical standards, that a half-scholarship for every student would be a rational baseline. A student of a T14 with a half-scholarship is merely paying what students paid without a scholarship just a decade and a half ago (the ABA website with the stat is down, but IIRC this is right....)

And then there's living expenses.

And the interest rate on the federal loans are extremely high for their typical mortgage-level size.

I mean, you can do the math: it's not that hard. Even with a half-scholarship, you are looking at about 150K and about 1.8K/month in payments. More if you have undergraduate debt.

There are more students graduating from even T14s who aren't making enough to stay out of IBR at that debt level than we'd like to realize. Salary distributions are bimodal, so if you don't happen to land a 115-145-160ish job, you are making 45-55-65ish, which isn't enough to make 22K a year of loan payments.

Oh, and the job market is getting worse, not better. There's that too. (And the ABA thinks the problem structural and lasting, not cyclical.)

Re: Class of 2011 Employment Statistics

Posted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 9:34 pm
by fatduck
dingbat wrote:
NJPitcher wrote:Some might argue that those who are getting the scholarships are the better students at the schools, and therefore need the scholarships less.

such a wonderful catch-22
It's too bad that rankings have forced schools to shift funds from need-based to merit-based scholarships, but then, we do like to think of this country as a meritocracy

in what universe is this a catch-22

Re: Class of 2011 Employment Statistics

Posted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:17 pm
by RedBirds2011
manofjustice wrote:
RedBirds2011 wrote:
manofjustice wrote:One of the things I think you are discounting RedBirds is how smart people who go to T14s are. I am not saying anything about you. But T14s are full of very smart people. It's not that they are smarter than you, though they very well could be. But it is that you should have to assume that you are no smarter than the average T14 student. And then come three things that can hit you like a ton of bricks: the curve, luck, and gunners.

The T14 doesn't guarantee you shit. And when you start seeing half or more of the class either a) getting no jobs or b) getting jobs that don't justify the cost (and you better look at those LST and NALP stats carefully: for many of the T14, it's exactly like that...no 160K for the bottom 60% of the class, no sir...), and you start to realize that someone has to be in the bottom half of the class and you're a great candidate...

...then you start to realize.




Im not sure how I have discounted a t14 students intelligence by even one word I have typed...lol


To be so caviler about the risk of going to law school, you have to assume it's likely that you'll do well--even at a T14. It's that unstated assumption, whether you recognize you're making it or not, that is discounting the academic challenge of a T14.

RE: Scholarships. Unless the scholarship is a full scholarship, it's not the solution. Tuition has been jacked up so high, by historical standards, that a half-scholarship for every student would be a rational baseline. A student of a T14 with a half-scholarship is merely paying what students paid without a scholarship just a decade and a half ago (the ABA website with the stat is down, but IIRC this is right....)

And then there's living expenses.

And the interest rate on the federal loans are extremely high for their typical mortgage-level size.

I mean, you can do the math: it's not that hard. Even with a half-scholarship, you are looking at about 150K and about 1.8K/month in payments. More if you have undergraduate debt.

There are more students graduating from even T14s who aren't making enough to stay out of IBR at that debt level than we'd like to realize. Salary distributions are bimodal, so if you don't happen to land a 115-145-160ish job, you are making 45-55-65ish, which isn't enough to make 22K a year of loan payments.

Oh, and the job market is getting worse, not better. There's that too. (And the ABA thinks the problem structural and lasting, not cyclical.)




Again, for the billionith time, how am I being cavalier about it? All I said is, at some point, you have to be realistic and not expect guarantees. Do you disagree with this statement? If you feel uncomfortable about it, then dont spend a ton of money on a t14 for a less than 50% chance of obtaining biglaw and dont go. If you really want to be a lawyer, and dont absolutely require biglaw, go to a regional school with lots of money. Otherwise, just dont go.


Also, just because the job market for attorneys is a structural problem (it is) does not mean that the economy doesnt also have an effect on the abysmal hiring lately. These things dont have to be mutually exclusive you know. Its multifaceted and interconnected. The legal market isnt in this bubble that is separate from all the other things happening right now economically.

Re: Class of 2011 Employment Statistics

Posted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:32 pm
by dingbat
fatduck wrote:
dingbat wrote:
NJPitcher wrote:Some might argue that those who are getting the scholarships are the better students at the schools, and therefore need the scholarships less.

such a wonderful catch-22
It's too bad that rankings have forced schools to shift funds from need-based to merit-based scholarships, but then, we do like to think of this country as a meritocracy

in what universe is this a catch-22

Irony is probably a better descriptor. I stand corrected.

Re: Class of 2011 Employment Statistics

Posted: Mon Jul 23, 2012 6:58 pm
by XxSpyKEx
God damn this is awesome. Before I went to law school (c/o 2011), all we had were the class of 2007 job statistics to make our decision on, and they were far from this detailed. For a lot of schools, it was difficult to get much more than the law school's brochure which gave you salary information based on the people who replied to the "salary survey" (and, of course, most schools would also ensure to have nearly an 100% response rate to the "employment" survey, so they could publish that the information was based on nearly a 100% response rate to their employment survey).

Also, these numbers are awful. The school I transferred out of managed to get 1 person in a large law firm, if you define it as over 250 attorneys. The numbers looked a lot better based on the information that was available for the class of 2007 at the time (although the information readily available was limited, relative to this stuff).

The sad thing is that the "average" prospective law student (and I don't think the average TLS reader is an "average" law student, given the number of people on here that attend t14s) isn't going to read and understand these statistics, and will choose to go to a law school that is a terrible investment (by any standards).. I recall the number of applications substantially increasing at both of the schools I attended the year before I graduated, which allowed schools to continue to jack up tuition by well over the inflation rate, and that is mind-blowing given these employment statistics.

Re: Class of 2011 Employment Statistics

Posted: Tue Aug 14, 2012 5:59 pm
by jeffyl00b
I tried, But I couldn't go through all 6 pages of the flame war.
So what's so bad about these statistics that look better than a lot of undergrad colleges? Frankly a 55% rate of using your JD sounds pretty good, unless you think you're going to almost fail school. Those odds are better than anything I see outside in this economy.

And why isn't there a simple place of a calculator for what your student loans payment would be. A clear one I should say, the ones I see look like partial guess work. I notice no schools want to talk about repayment.

Re: Class of 2011 Employment Statistics

Posted: Tue Aug 14, 2012 9:39 pm
by rickgrimes69
jeffyl00b wrote:I tried, But I couldn't go through all 6 pages of the flame war.
So what's so bad about these statistics that look better than a lot of undergrad colleges? Frankly a 55% rate of using your JD sounds pretty good, unless you think you're going to almost fail school. Those odds are better than anything I see outside in this economy.


Because undergrad is supposed to give you a well-rounded postgraduate education that you can theoretically use in many different lines of work. You go to law school to be a lawyer. If that doesn't pan out, either you or the school is doing something wrong.

Also, if you're paying $250,000 for undergrad, you're also doing something wrong.

And why isn't there a simple place of a calculator for what your student loans payment would be. A clear one I should say, the ones I see look like partial guess work. I notice no schools want to talk about repayment.


http://www.finaid.org/calculators/loanpayments.phtml/

I googled "Student Loan Calculator." First result. HTH.

Re: Class of 2011 Employment Statistics

Posted: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:56 am
by Sspinner
More FIU grads get jobs than from UF?

I'm sure :lol:

Re: Class of 2011 Employment Statistics

Posted: Wed Sep 05, 2012 9:30 am
by alwayssunnyinfl
Sspinner wrote:More FIU grads get jobs than from UF?

I'm sure :lol:


Even in Florida, all Florida schools are TTT.

Re: Class of 2011 Employment Statistics

Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2012 8:00 am
by LaFinDuMonde
thelawyler wrote:What really needs to be released and published are 2L SA stats the year they happen.


I am going to necro this thread to say, "Fuck yeah".

Re: Class of 2011 Employment Statistics

Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 12:47 pm
by jenesaislaw
updated OP

Re: Class of 2011 Employment Statistics

Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2013 1:00 am
by thomasyin2
The links are down, website server is no longer available, is there another place we could look at these valuable data? :)

Re: Class of 2011 Employment Statistics

Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2013 1:42 am
by jenesaislaw
thomasyin2 wrote:The links are down, website server is no longer available, is there another place we could look at these valuable data? :)


Thank you for pointing this out. I am tired of Dreamhost trying to auto-update a Wordpress install that doesn't even exist :|

Fixed it.