manofjustice wrote:One of the things I think you are discounting RedBirds is how smart people who go to T14s are. I am not saying anything about you. But T14s are full of very smart people. It's not that they are smarter than you, though they very well could be. But it is that you should have to assume that you are no smarter than the average T14 student. And then come three things that can hit you like a ton of bricks: the curve, luck, and gunners.
The T14 doesn't guarantee you shit. And when you start seeing half or more of the class either a) getting no jobs or b) getting jobs that don't justify the cost (and you better look at those LST and NALP stats carefully: for many of the T14, it's exactly like that...no 160K for the bottom 60% of the class, no sir...), and you start to realize that someone has to be in the bottom half of the class and you're a great candidate...
...then you start to realize.
Im not sure how I have discounted a t14 students intelligence by even one word I have typed...lol
To be so caviler about the risk of going to law school, you have to assume it's likely that you'll do well--even at a T14. It's that unstated assumption, whether you recognize you're making it or not, that is discounting the academic challenge of a T14.
RE: Scholarships. Unless the scholarship is a full scholarship, it's not the solution. Tuition has been jacked up so high, by historical standards, that a half-scholarship for every student would be a rational baseline. A student of a T14 with a half-scholarship is merely paying what students paid without a scholarship just a decade and a half ago (the ABA website with the stat is down, but IIRC this is right....)
And then there's living expenses.
And the interest rate on the federal loans are extremely high for their typical mortgage-level size.
I mean, you can do the math: it's not that hard. Even with a half-scholarship, you are looking at about 150K and about 1.8K/month in payments. More if you have undergraduate debt.
There are more students graduating from even T14s who aren't making enough to stay out of IBR at that debt level than we'd like to realize. Salary distributions are bimodal, so if you don't happen to land a 115-145-160ish job, you are making 45-55-65ish, which isn't enough to make 22K a year of loan payments.
Oh, and the job market is getting worse, not better. There's that too. (And the ABA thinks the problem structural and lasting, not cyclical.)