If you've got an appetite for risk, it's not objectively unreasonable to pay sticker at a school where you have a 25% chance at a bad outcome.
For me, it depends on how 'bad' of an outcome it is. I'm a 1L, looking at graduating with about 140k in debt from a CCN, assuming I don't work at a firm my second summer. If I'm one of the 15-20% that doesn't get Biglaw, decent midlaw, or a LRAP qualifying job, I'll be in a bad situation financially, maybe taking home 3k a month after taxes while having a $1700 a month loan payment. Maybe a little worse, maybe a little better. That would be rough, but I wouldn't be totally screwed. There are at least ways out; I could refinance my loan to 15 or 20 years, or lean on my significant other for a while, until I am hopefully making enough to pay down my debt at the normal ten year rate. Not ideal, but doable.
If my loan were $3400 a month, I would effectively have no options, other than IBR for 20 years and a tax bomb at the end.
I can live with a 15-20% chance of a bad outcome, I can't live with a 15-20% chance of being financially ruined for the rest of my adult life.