Are T10s worth the debt?

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Gail
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Re: Are T10s worth the debt?

Postby Gail » Mon Mar 19, 2012 9:44 am

GoldenRetriever1988 wrote:I've been reading about the "law school crisis" and that the legal market is over-saturated. I plan on applying to Yale, Harvard, Stanford, Michigan, and Virginia for law school (I have the numbers for UM and UVA, maybe YSH) Are those schools worth the debt? Do Michigan and Virginia grads have trouble getting great PI jobs?


I waiver back and forth on this. Right now I'm in a "yes" mode. But I've spent more time in the "no" column.

I say yes because big law seems to be recovering well, but it's tentative. If the economy goes again, well we know what's going to happen. That said. It's hard to turn down something close to full tuition at a lower ranked school.

For your specific position, if you have a chance at YSH, then you probably won't pay sticker at UVA and UM. You might get a 20k scholarship or something.

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Julio_El_Chavo
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Re: Are T10s worth the debt?

Postby Julio_El_Chavo » Mon Mar 19, 2012 2:24 pm

rayiner wrote:Breaking down USNWR rankings by sub-category is more than retarded. If judges/lawyers held UVA in such high regard, you think it would translate into meaningful differences in the employment statistics: http://www.law.com/jsp/nlj/PubArticleNL ... 2543436520


LOL, ok bro. Whatever you say. I believe CLS proved that those NLJ numbers are complete bullshit (http://www.law.columbia.edu/media_inqui ... of-ny-post). But whatever, you win the Internets.

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bk1
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Re: Are T10s worth the debt?

Postby bk1 » Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:17 pm

Julio_El_Chavo wrote:those NLJ numbers are complete bullshit

orly?

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Julio_El_Chavo
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Re: Are T10s worth the debt?

Postby Julio_El_Chavo » Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:28 pm

bk1 wrote:
Julio_El_Chavo wrote:those NLJ numbers are complete bullshit

orly?


They are either accurate or they are not. CLS seems to think they are not, at least not for the purposes that rayiner is citing them for (i.e. drawing distinctions between top law schools based on a few percentage points that are potentially fudged by NLJ).

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bk1
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Re: Are T10s worth the debt?

Postby bk1 » Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:40 pm

Julio_El_Chavo wrote:They are either accurate or they are not. CLS seems to think they are not, at least not for the purposes that rayiner is citing them for (i.e. drawing distinctions between top law schools based on a few percentage points that are potentially fudged by NLJ).


Yes because when we look at data it's only important whether it's wrong or right, not whether we can actually still glean some useful information out of something that is incomplete.

I also enjoy the fact that you pull numbers out of your ass (lawyer/judge assessment is 4.4 vs 4.6), ignore the fact that the the lawyer/judge score is worthless (based on 90 responses and uses a herpderp 1-5 scale), and just don't respond to the substance of rayiner's post. But good on ya buddy, troll hard.

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Julio_El_Chavo
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Re: Are T10s worth the debt?

Postby Julio_El_Chavo » Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:47 pm

bk1 wrote:
Julio_El_Chavo wrote:They are either accurate or they are not. CLS seems to think they are not, at least not for the purposes that rayiner is citing them for (i.e. drawing distinctions between top law schools based on a few percentage points that are potentially fudged by NLJ).


Yes because when we look at data it's only important whether it's wrong or right, not whether we can actually still glean some useful information out of something that is incomplete.


I'm saying that you can't glean anything useful for distinguishing top law schools from one another by looking at the NLJ information. This should be apparent not only from looking at the CLS response but also from looking at the extreme variance from year to year between NLJ250 placement rankings when compared with the USNWR rankings which are much more static.

And I apologize for not getting the Judges/Lawyers assessment score right for NU. I hadn't looked at the ranking for NU for this year. I was basing my statement on past years which have consistently had NU down around 4.

Also: u mad bro?

PIorbust
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Re: Are T10s worth the debt?

Postby PIorbust » Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:59 pm

rayiner wrote:That said, there are no public interest jobs. None. DOJ cut their honors hiring to half the usual size. Most of the other Federal agencies are on hiring freezes. The states are totally not hiring because of their budget/debt situation. The super elite PI organizations seem to still be hiring people, but getting those is an up hill battle anywhere, especially outside of HYS.

People on this board focus on how bad the situation is for big law hiring, but big law has recovered to a large extent. PI hiring, on the other hand, got decimated by the recession and hasn't recovered at all.


Can you expand on this or cite sources/statistics?

I'm really not interested in BigLaw and currently freaking out re: choosing between the the two T10 schools I'm in at (that aren't particularly awesome for PI), vs GTown and UCLA, who both seem to have better PI programs/LRAPs. Of course, if I can't get a PI job, I guess being able to pay off my loans would be nice.

Also, I want non-profit or PD-stuff, not gov't. Basically I want to fight the Man, not work for him.

(I may or may not start my own thread about my sitch, but it feels so cliche)

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rayiner
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Re: Are T10s worth the debt?

Postby rayiner » Mon Mar 19, 2012 9:18 pm

Julio_El_Chavo wrote:
bk1 wrote:
Julio_El_Chavo wrote:They are either accurate or they are not. CLS seems to think they are not, at least not for the purposes that rayiner is citing them for (i.e. drawing distinctions between top law schools based on a few percentage points that are potentially fudged by NLJ).


Yes because when we look at data it's only important whether it's wrong or right, not whether we can actually still glean some useful information out of something that is incomplete.


I'm saying that you can't glean anything useful for distinguishing top law schools from one another by looking at the NLJ information. This should be apparent not only from looking at the CLS response but also from looking at the extreme variance from year to year between NLJ250 placement rankings when compared with the USNWR rankings which are much more static.

And I apologize for not getting the Judges/Lawyers assessment score right for NU. I hadn't looked at the ranking for NU for this year. I was basing my statement on past years which have consistently had NU down around 4.

Also: u mad bro?


You're all over the map on this one bro. The 10% difference in NLJ stats, reported by firms, is negligible, but the 2% difference in Article III placement is significant. The NLJ stat is a bad measure because some firms didn't report, while the lawyers/judges rating with its 20-30% overall response rate is a good measure.

I posted a break down of article III + school-reported big law for the T14. MVDN come out within a few percentage points of each other. That's the data we have, either a substantial advantage to NU (NLJ stats) or parity (self-reported stats). But no, the 30% response rate on the lawyer/judge ranking makes it more reliable.

Also, NU's lawyer/judge has typically been 4.3-4.4. It's peer score is usually 4.0.

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Julio_El_Chavo
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Re: Are T10s worth the debt?

Postby Julio_El_Chavo » Mon Mar 19, 2012 10:50 pm

rayiner wrote:
Julio_El_Chavo wrote:
bk1 wrote:
Julio_El_Chavo wrote:They are either accurate or they are not. CLS seems to think they are not, at least not for the purposes that rayiner is citing them for (i.e. drawing distinctions between top law schools based on a few percentage points that are potentially fudged by NLJ).


Yes because when we look at data it's only important whether it's wrong or right, not whether we can actually still glean some useful information out of something that is incomplete.


I'm saying that you can't glean anything useful for distinguishing top law schools from one another by looking at the NLJ information. This should be apparent not only from looking at the CLS response but also from looking at the extreme variance from year to year between NLJ250 placement rankings when compared with the USNWR rankings which are much more static.

And I apologize for not getting the Judges/Lawyers assessment score right for NU. I hadn't looked at the ranking for NU for this year. I was basing my statement on past years which have consistently had NU down around 4.

Also: u mad bro?


You're all over the map on this one bro. The 10% difference in NLJ stats, reported by firms, is negligible, but the 2% difference in Article III placement is significant. The NLJ stat is a bad measure because some firms didn't report, while the lawyers/judges rating with its 20-30% overall response rate is a good measure.

I posted a break down of article III + school-reported big law for the T14. MVDN come out within a few percentage points of each other. That's the data we have, either a substantial advantage to NU (NLJ stats) or parity (self-reported stats). But no, the 30% response rate on the lawyer/judge ranking makes it more reliable.

Also, NU's lawyer/judge has typically been 4.3-4.4. It's peer score is usually 4.0.


The clerkship statistics are self-reported by the law schools directly instead of involving extrapolation techniques like the NLJ's methodology. The 2% difference is really more like 4-5% using the numbers I referred to early; in any case, those numbers are relative to the entire graduating class. I think it's more appropriate to compare the relative proportions of students getting Art III clerkships because everyone knows that people in the bottom 2/3 of the class generally don't have a shot at Art III clerkships (unless you're talking about HYS). From my previous post, I'd say UVA places, on average, 20-40% more students into Art III clerkships on a proportional basis.

The reason I think that USNWR and I seem to agree that lawyer/judge ratings (and, now that you bring them up, peer scores) are significant in judging the relative worth of a law school's degree is because it cuts through the self-selection bullshit that goes into NLJ-type statistics. NU is full of older students, many of whom likely have families and are not looking to go into PI or other low-paying but rewarding jobs. I think NU students are more likely to just take the job that pays the most, which might explain some of their great placement statistics in biglaw. Also, NU students have a lot of pre-law school experience that helps them get biglaw. They don't have to rely on the raw prestige of their institution as much. The USNWR surveys just ask people who actually matter in the hiring process to rank the law schools.

And again, I apologize for messing up the lawyer/judges figure. I got it mixed up with the peer score.

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rayiner
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Re: Are T10s worth the debt?

Postby rayiner » Tue Mar 20, 2012 1:54 am

Julio_El_Chavo wrote:The clerkship statistics are self-reported by the law schools directly instead of involving extrapolation techniques like the NLJ's methodology.


The NLJ doesn't use an extrapolation methodology. It simply sums up the statistics reported by law firms. While some NLJ firms don't report, most do. The USNWR Judge/Lawyer rankings, meanwhile, have a response rate in the 30% region. It's quite ironic that you criticize a metric that has an 80% reporting rate while holding up a metric that has a 30% reporting rate.

The 2% difference is really more like 4-5% using the numbers I referred to early;


You compared Article III clerkships at NU versus total clerkships at Virginia, including non-Article III placements. For C/O 2011, only 69% of total clerkships were Article III (http://www.law.virginia.edu/html/career ... lclerk.htm).

I think it's more appropriate to compare the relative proportions of students getting Art III clerkships because everyone knows that people in the bottom 2/3 of the class generally don't have a shot at Art III clerkships (unless you're talking about HYS). From my previous post, I'd say UVA places, on average, 20-40% more students into Art III clerkships on a proportional basis.


The point is that the absolute difference is small and ultimately affects only half a dozen people in the class.

NU is full of older students, many of whom likely have families and are not looking to go into PI or other low-paying but rewarding jobs. I think NU students are more likely to just take the job that pays the most, which might explain some of their great placement statistics in biglaw.


That's also a good argument for why the difference in Article III numbers aren't significant. When the average NU student is pushing 30 at graduation, and 1/5 are business-oriented JD-MBA's and AJD's who worked for 5-6 years before law school, spending another year working for $60k is less appealing by enough of a margin to sway the decisions of half a dozen people.

In any case, I'm not debating the theoretical relative prestige of the two schools. I posted a response to the OP's question about job prospects at the "T10" based on my first-hand experience at NU. You came in with some bizarre comment trying to establish a distinction between "T10" and Duke/NU that doesn't exist in any of the real data you might refer to, but only in your made-up statistics using your made-up methodology. Nothing you've said controverts the credibility of my claims.

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JusticeHarlan
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Re: Are T10s worth the debt?

Postby JusticeHarlan » Tue Mar 20, 2012 7:45 am

rayiner wrote:The NLJ doesn't use an extrapolation methodology. It simply sums up the statistics reported by law firms. While some NLJ firms don't report, most do. The USNWR Judge/Lawyer rankings, meanwhile, have a response rate in the 30% region. It's quite ironic that you criticize a metric that has an 80% reporting rate while holding up a metric that has a 30% reporting rate.

Even 30% seems high; this year it's "about 12%."

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Julio_El_Chavo
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Re: Are T10s worth the debt?

Postby Julio_El_Chavo » Tue Mar 20, 2012 9:32 am

The NLJ doesn't use an extrapolation methodology. It simply sums up the statistics reported by law firms. While some NLJ firms don't report, most do. The USNWR Judge/Lawyer rankings, meanwhile, have a response rate in the 30% region. It's quite ironic that you criticize a metric that has an 80% reporting rate while holding up a metric that has a 30% reporting rate.


I don't think you understand what "extrapolate" means.

Also, you fail to comprehend the difference between the purpose of the NLJ250 survey and the USNWR reputation surveys. The USNWR surveys is simply trying to get a representative sample large enough to be statistically significant. This is exactly what the NLJ survey is NOT doing: it's trying to account for every type of employment on a percentage basis. This would be like the USNWR surveys trying to estimate how many lawyers/judges thought each school was a 5 or a 4, etc.

Finally, since Art. III clerkships almost guarantee a six figure job after one or two years service, I think NU students bent on making biglaw salaries wouldn't be deterred from clerking as much as they would be from taking a small firm, PI, or government job straight out of LS.

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rayiner
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Re: Are T10s worth the debt?

Postby rayiner » Tue Mar 20, 2012 10:35 am

Julio_El_Chavo wrote:
The NLJ doesn't use an extrapolation methodology. It simply sums up the statistics reported by law firms. While some NLJ firms don't report, most do. The USNWR Judge/Lawyer rankings, meanwhile, have a response rate in the 30% region. It's quite ironic that you criticize a metric that has an 80% reporting rate while holding up a metric that has a 30% reporting rate.


I don't think you understand what "extrapolate" means.

Also, you fail to comprehend the difference between the purpose of the NLJ250 survey and the USNWR reputation surveys. The USNWR surveys is simply trying to get a representative sample large enough to be statistically significant. This is exactly what the NLJ survey is NOT doing: it's trying to account for every type of employment on a percentage basis. This would be like the USNWR surveys trying to estimate how many lawyers/judges thought each school was a 5 or a 4, etc.

Finally, since Art. III clerkships almost guarantee a six figure job after one or two years service, I think NU students bent on making biglaw salaries wouldn't be deterred from clerking as much as they would be from taking a small firm, PI, or government job straight out of LS.


Extrapolation is to make a general projection from limited data. The NLJ 250 does not try to compute a projected employment rate. NLJ simply reports a partial total.

As for clerking, it's not just the money (though you lose $50k even with the clerkship bonus). It's a combination of AJD/JD-MBA types being interested in corporate work rather than litigation, and the hassle of moving to bum fuck for a year to clerk. I'm facing that situation myself. I'm limiting my clerkship search to quite difficult to get regions because I can't just leave my S.O. alone for a year to pursue easier clerkships in less in-demand locales. Beyond that, like most of my classmates, I already had settled down somewhere for a couple of years before law school. I don't want to postpone settling down in a city by doing a one-year clerkship somewhere random unless it's really the ideal one. For a lot of people, law school is a break after 4-6 years of working, and a clerkship is another discontinuity on top of the three years for law school. When you're talking about 5-6 people making different decisions, that factor can easily explain the discrepancy.




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