T14s on the rise ?

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hyakku
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T14s on the rise ?

Postby hyakku » Thu Dec 01, 2011 2:01 pm

I've done a search and can't find any thread that addressed this. I was wondering what determines "rising" T-14s and falling ones? I know job placement, LSAT ranges, etc. are all how they are ranked, but I also consistently see people here commenting on the falling quality of some schools while others are praised for recent strides in various areas.

I'm just interested in the question because the traditional t-14 rankings seem pretty stagnant and while they change, there doesn't really seem to be some type of concrete formula they use to determine this. It would be interesting to note people's perceptions of
how certain schools will fare in the future.

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Veyron
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Re: T14s on the rise ?

Postby Veyron » Thu Dec 01, 2011 2:03 pm

Job placement leads all. I think that the only two T-14s that can be said to be "on the decline" are Michigan and Berkeley mostly because of geographical bad luck.

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Re: T14s on the rise ?

Postby IAFG » Thu Dec 01, 2011 2:04 pm

People who claim one school will rise over another are almost always full of shit.

I'm just interested in the question because the traditional t-14 rankings seem pretty stagnant and while they change, there doesn't really seem to be some type of concrete formula they use to determine this.


There is: the USNWR ranking methodology.

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Re: T14s on the rise ?

Postby 03121202698008 » Thu Dec 01, 2011 2:06 pm

Veyron wrote:Job placement leads all. I think that the only two T-14s that can be said to be "on the decline" are Michigan and Berkeley mostly because of geographical bad luck.


Source? Michigan moved up last year. Anecdotal evidence suggests employment #s should be at least decently strong this year and better than last year. Very few people I know of don't have an offer in one market or another.
Last edited by 03121202698008 on Thu Dec 01, 2011 2:07 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: T14s on the rise ?

Postby IAFG » Thu Dec 01, 2011 2:06 pm

Veyron wrote:Job placement leads all. I think that the only two T-14s that can be said to be "on the decline" are Michigan and Berkeley mostly because of geographical bad luck.

Don't you think both of their "losses" have been realized though? In a great economy, having no real home market might even be an advantage, because you can make a plausible play for a lot of cities. If the economy ever recovers, they'll have no where to go but up.

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Re: T14s on the rise ?

Postby IAFG » Thu Dec 01, 2011 2:06 pm

blowhard wrote:
Veyron wrote:Job placement leads all. I think that the only two T-14s that can be said to be "on the decline" are Michigan and Berkeley mostly because of geographical bad luck.


Source? Michigan moved up last year. Anecdotal evidence suggests employment #s should be at least decently strong this year.

Moved up in job placement?

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Re: T14s on the rise ?

Postby Campagnolo » Thu Dec 01, 2011 2:06 pm

Veyron wrote:Job placement leads all. I think that the only two T-14s that can be said to be "on the decline" are Michigan and Berkeley mostly because of geographical bad luck.


Do you mean this with regards to state funding of public schools? Or something else?

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Re: T14s on the rise ?

Postby 03121202698008 » Thu Dec 01, 2011 2:07 pm

IAFG wrote:
blowhard wrote:
Veyron wrote:Job placement leads all. I think that the only two T-14s that can be said to be "on the decline" are Michigan and Berkeley mostly because of geographical bad luck.


Source? Michigan moved up last year. Anecdotal evidence suggests employment #s should be at least decently strong this year.

Moved up in job placement?


Moved up in ranking which is what I took OP to be asking about. Also job placement over previous 2 years (IIRC).

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Re: T14s on the rise ?

Postby IAFG » Thu Dec 01, 2011 2:09 pm

blowhard wrote:
IAFG wrote:
blowhard wrote:
Veyron wrote:Job placement leads all. I think that the only two T-14s that can be said to be "on the decline" are Michigan and Berkeley mostly because of geographical bad luck.


Source? Michigan moved up last year. Anecdotal evidence suggests employment #s should be at least decently strong this year.

Moved up in job placement?


Moved up in ranking which is what I took OP to be asking about. Also job placement over previous 2 years (IIRC).

I think Veyron wasn't talking about USNWR, although OP presumably was.

Moved up relative to peers or just with the market generally?

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Re: T14s on the rise ?

Postby 03121202698008 » Thu Dec 01, 2011 2:11 pm

IAFG wrote:
Moved up relative to peers or just with the market generally?


Definitely relative to itself. I don't track peers enough to know in regards to them. I find it hard to believe we are "declining" even if not rising. I'd guess our job placement to peers is proportionally the same as it has been.

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Re: T14s on the rise ?

Postby IAFG » Thu Dec 01, 2011 2:14 pm

blowhard wrote:
IAFG wrote:
Moved up relative to peers or just with the market generally?


Definitely relative to itself. I don't track peers enough to know in regards to them. I find it hard to believe we are "declining" even if not rising. I'd guess our job placement to peers is proportionally the same as it has been.

Well, as I have said many times, the difference between CCNMVPDCN placement is probably not even statistically significant, so I am definitely not looking to get into an argument over 4% placement. I was just wondering what you meant.

Michigan has probably declined all it is going to. Detroit has been shitpureshit for a long time, and the damage that ITE did has been realized too.

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Re: T14s on the rise ?

Postby 03121202698008 » Thu Dec 01, 2011 2:16 pm

IAFG wrote:
blowhard wrote:
IAFG wrote:
Moved up relative to peers or just with the market generally?


Definitely relative to itself. I don't track peers enough to know in regards to them. I find it hard to believe we are "declining" even if not rising. I'd guess our job placement to peers is proportionally the same as it has been.

Well, as I have said many times, the difference between CCNMVPDCN placement is probably not even statistically significant, so I am definitely not looking to get into an argument over 4% placement. I was just wondering what you meant.

Michigan has probably declined all it is going to. Detroit has been shitpureshit for a long time, and the damage that ITE did has been realized too.


I agree. Wasn't looking to argue with you either. Trying to figure out the basis of the assertion Veyron made.

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Re: T14s on the rise ?

Postby Veyron » Thu Dec 01, 2011 3:24 pm

Do you mean this with regards to state funding of public schools? Or something else?

Both regional job market and state funding.

IAFG wrote:
Veyron wrote:Job placement leads all. I think that the only two T-14s that can be said to be "on the decline" are Michigan and Berkeley mostly because of geographical bad luck.

Don't you think both of their "losses" have been realized though? In a great economy, having no real home market might even be an advantage, because you can make a plausible play for a lot of cities. If the economy ever recovers, they'll have no where to go but up.


Michigan's have been mostly realized although the Wolverine Scholars fiasco certainly won't help. Berkeley still has a ways to fall after the funding cuts fully come down the pipe and kick in. Besides, the California trainwreck is just beginning.

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Re: T14s on the rise ?

Postby Renzo » Thu Dec 01, 2011 3:52 pm

hyakku wrote:I've done a search and can't find any thread that addressed this. I was wondering what determines "rising" T-14s and falling ones? I know job placement, LSAT ranges, etc. are all how they are ranked, but I also consistently see people here commenting on the falling quality of some schools while others are praised for recent strides in various areas.

I'm just interested in the question because the traditional t-14 rankings seem pretty stagnant and while they change, there doesn't really seem to be some type of concrete formula they use to determine this. It would be interesting to note people's perceptions of
how certain schools will fare in the future.


Year on year changes are meaningless, as the distinctions between these schools are so fine-grained that any movement is more likely the result of noisy data and randomness than any meaningful distinction.

If you look at the 5 years, 10 years, or longer, you can spot a few trends. As Veyron mentioned, UMich has slid some; 20 years ago it was seen as a really standout elite school; now it's viewed as one of several (still very good) schools, but doesn't have the same kind of standout reputation. NYU has done the opposite, and has begun to cement it's place as a one of the "elite" schools; but this means I don't expect any real movement from it's current ranking, up or down. Texas is a school to watch, as it has been riding the Texas legal market to the top (just like NYU did with the NYC legal market starting in the 80's), and this trend will probably continue. Also, Veyron's predictions about Boalt aren't crazy, so you may see it slide a bit.

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hyakku
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Re: T14s on the rise ?

Postby hyakku » Thu Dec 01, 2011 4:02 pm

Veyron wrote:
Do you mean this with regards to state funding of public schools? Or something else?

Both regional job market and state funding.

IAFG wrote:
Veyron wrote:Job placement leads all. I think that the only two T-14s that can be said to be "on the decline" are Michigan and Berkeley mostly because of geographical bad luck.

Don't you think both of their "losses" have been realized though? In a great economy, having no real home market might even be an advantage, because you can make a plausible play for a lot of cities. If the economy ever recovers, they'll have no where to go but up.


Michigan's have been mostly realized although the Wolverine Scholars fiasco certainly won't help. Berkeley still has a ways to fall after the funding cuts fully come down the pipe and kick in. Besides, the California trainwreck is just beginning.


Thanks renzo and Veyron, these are exactly the responses I was looking for. I've been trying to figure out a way to sort of "study" the trends. Lacking extensive experience in mathematics and stats I generally try to get some type of methodology from those who understand these things a lot better than I do.

To IAFG, I realize now that I wasn't really that clear, as I was referring to the USNWR. You're right there, I just meant that their methodology seems pretty unclear. If it really is all job placement that might explain it a bit, but there still seems to be some schools that would be lower than they should be.

I'm really interested in hearing more about the trends like renzo points out, as I had the same thought about UCB having attended USC the past few years and seen the tremendous budget cuts the UC system has gone through. I might be a Trojan, but seeing UCLA decline academically even slightly would be severly detrimental not just to their school, but our school as well as I think the drive to try to outpace UCLA and become the top "LA" school has pushed both of our schools to be better. I'm worried that that effect may extend to Berks, despite being CA's crown jewel. I also had similar sentiments about Mich. as the poster who said that it seems they have "slid" all they will due to Detroits fail being fully realized and accepted nationally. Maybe I'm wrong though.

Thanks for the really useful responses though, good looking out.

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Re: T14s on the rise ?

Postby Grizz » Thu Dec 01, 2011 4:06 pm

Greetings,

This is not only a new thread but also a very worthwhile thread that will not only increase the forum's communal knowledge but also greatly aid in people's decision as to which school is the best to attend.

I applaud you, OP.

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Re: T14s on the rise ?

Postby snehpets » Thu Dec 01, 2011 4:08 pm

Renzo wrote: Texas is a school to watch, as it has been riding the Texas legal market to the top (just like NYU did with the NYC legal market starting in the 80's), and this trend will probably continue. Also, Veyron's predictions about Boalt aren't crazy, so you may see it slide a bit.


Yeah, this, for sure. At least anecdotally. It's interesting living in Texas because while there are certainly people suffering bc of the economy, especially in traditionally poor areas, it really just hasn't hit here in the same way it has other places, legal market included. I honestly can't think of anyone that's jobless that doesn't want to be in any market. anecdotal, as I said, but it is always a bit of a shock for me going to other parts of the country that have been hit harder.

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Re: T14s on the rise ?

Postby crazyblink653 » Thu Dec 01, 2011 4:22 pm

Veyron wrote:
Do you mean this with regards to state funding of public schools? Or something else?

Both regional job market and state funding.

IAFG wrote:
Veyron wrote:Job placement leads all. I think that the only two T-14s that can be said to be "on the decline" are Michigan and Berkeley mostly because of geographical bad luck.

Don't you think both of their "losses" have been realized though? In a great economy, having no real home market might even be an advantage, because you can make a plausible play for a lot of cities. If the economy ever recovers, they'll have no where to go but up.


Michigan's have been mostly realized although the Wolverine Scholars fiasco certainly won't help. Berkeley still has a ways to fall after the funding cuts fully come down the pipe and kick in. Besides, the California trainwreck is just beginning.


not sure that the state funding thing affects Michigan that much, since only a very small portion of its budget comes from state funding. moreover, michigan was never really seems as a "feeder school" for the michigan market, so the collapse of the detroit legal market isn't that big a deal in the grand scheme. lastly, it's one of only a handful of schools that has never been outside the top 10 USNWR rankings since its inception. i don't really think michigan is on the decline. at the same time, it's unlikely that it's on the rise, either.

i think it's easier to make a plausible argument for berkeley, on the other hand, since it's definitely viewed as a more "regional" T14 school than either of its peers (Michigan or Penn), and the CA market has been struggling the last few years.

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Re: T14s on the rise ?

Postby IAFG » Thu Dec 01, 2011 5:04 pm

hyakku wrote:
To IAFG, I realize now that I wasn't really that clear, as I was referring to the USNWR. You're right there, I just meant that their methodology seems pretty unclear. If it really is all job placement that might explain it a bit, but there still seems to be some schools that would be lower than they should be.

Have you actually like... read the methodology? It's pretty much all out there in the open.

http://www.usnews.com/education/best-gr ... ology-2012

I guess they don't disclose everything, like what the per-student spending actually is, but they really aren't hiding the ball.

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Re: T14s on the rise ?

Postby Tom Joad » Thu Dec 01, 2011 5:19 pm

Schools that are stingier with scholarship money could certainly attract less outstanding students and their medians could drop, hurting their ranking. For example Texas could pass Georgetown based on scholarship money.

Schools with tuition increases proportional to their peers could suffer the same fate. (Boalt). Boalt could also see a decrease in outstanding applicants because it doesn't offer merit based fee waivers.

Keep in mind I am not an expert in Georgetown's scholarship aid or Boalt's tuition increases and I am only regurgitating what I have read on this site.

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Re: T14s on the rise ?

Postby Veyron » Thu Dec 01, 2011 6:29 pm

crazyblink653 wrote:
Veyron wrote:
Do you mean this with regards to state funding of public schools? Or something else?

Both regional job market and state funding.

IAFG wrote:
Veyron wrote:Job placement leads all. I think that the only two T-14s that can be said to be "on the decline" are Michigan and Berkeley mostly because of geographical bad luck.

Don't you think both of their "losses" have been realized though? In a great economy, having no real home market might even be an advantage, because you can make a plausible play for a lot of cities. If the economy ever recovers, they'll have no where to go but up.


Michigan's have been mostly realized although the Wolverine Scholars fiasco certainly won't help. Berkeley still has a ways to fall after the funding cuts fully come down the pipe and kick in. Besides, the California trainwreck is just beginning.


not sure that the state funding thing affects Michigan that much, since only a very small portion of its budget comes from state funding. moreover, michigan was never really seems as a "feeder school" for the michigan market, so the collapse of the detroit legal market isn't that big a deal in the grand scheme. lastly, it's one of only a handful of schools that has never been outside the top 10 USNWR rankings since its inception. i don't really think michigan is on the decline. at the same time, it's unlikely that it's on the rise, either.

i think it's easier to make a plausible argument for berkeley, on the other hand, since it's definitely viewed as a more "regional" T14 school than either of its peers (Michigan or Penn), and the CA market has been struggling the last few years.


Thats why I was careful to say "regional" R.E. Michigan, Chicago is also nowhere near pre-recession levels of hiring.

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Re: T14s on the rise ?

Postby Bronte » Thu Dec 01, 2011 6:42 pm

Veyron wrote:Thats why I was careful to say "regional" R.E. Michigan, Chicago is also nowhere near pre-recession levels of hiring.


So what? The University of Chicago and Northwestern also heavily depend on the Chicago job market. Michigan has never significantly depended on Detroit for jobs or on Michigan state for funding. The "Michigan in decline" thing is just the echo of trolls past, unless you're planning to take up the torch. Among the T14, MVPDCN, at least, are peers.

In general, the NLJ 250 numbers are okay for the big picture but, as IAFG said, are almost certainly not statistically significant to at least +/-5%. They shouldn't be used to differentiate between schools within the same general peer group. When you're looking at schools in the mini tiers, you should be going on money and subjective factors.

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Re: T14s on the rise ?

Postby Veyron » Thu Dec 01, 2011 6:55 pm

Bronte wrote:
Veyron wrote:Thats why I was careful to say "regional" R.E. Michigan, Chicago is also nowhere near pre-recession levels of hiring.


So what? The University of Chicago and Northwestern also heavily depend on the Chicago job market. Michigan has never significantly depended on Detroit for jobs or on Michigan state for funding. The "Michigan in decline" thing is just the echo of trolls past, unless you're planning to take up the torch. Among the T14, MVPDCN, at least, are peers.

In general, the NLJ 250 numbers are okay for the big picture but, as IAFG said, are almost certainly not statistically significant to at least +/-5%. They shouldn't be used to differentiate between schools within the same general peer group. When you're looking at schools in the mini tiers, you should be going on money and subjective factors.


(Attending: University of Michigan 2013)

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Bronte
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Re: T14s on the rise ?

Postby Bronte » Thu Dec 01, 2011 7:01 pm

Veyron wrote:
Bronte wrote:
Veyron wrote:Thats why I was careful to say "regional" R.E. Michigan, Chicago is also nowhere near pre-recession levels of hiring.


So what? The University of Chicago and Northwestern also heavily depend on the Chicago job market. Michigan has never significantly depended on Detroit for jobs or on Michigan state for funding. The "Michigan in decline" thing is just the echo of trolls past, unless you're planning to take up the torch. Among the T14, MVPDCN, at least, are peers.

In general, the NLJ 250 numbers are okay for the big picture but, as IAFG said, are almost certainly not statistically significant to at least +/-5%. They shouldn't be used to differentiate between schools within the same general peer group. When you're looking at schools in the mini tiers, you should be going on money and subjective factors.


(Attending: University of Michigan 2013)


It's no secret that I go to Michigan. But I've never trolled for Michigan being anything more than exactly what it is: a peer school in the MVPDCN bracket that's no more on decline than any of those schools. The only time I "troll" for Michigan is to rebut anti-Michigan trolls. Like most anti-Michigan trolls, you've exhausted your substantive arguments.

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Re: T14s on the rise ?

Postby keg411 » Thu Dec 01, 2011 8:13 pm

Michigan isn't regional at all; at least not from the people I hang out with. The people I know are going all over the place (Chicago, NY, SF, DC, random secondary markets) and some got offers in multiple markets.




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