AffordablePrep wrote:vanwinkle wrote:AffordablePrep wrote:It is one hundred percent false that chimp has a 70 percent chance of losing his scholarship. That which is up to ones' performance is inherently not able to be predicted to a tee. Would Phil Ivey have only a 10 percent chance of winning a poker game with any nine random people? Of course not. OP has better than a 30 percent chance of keeping his scholarship given he has a prior record of OP success.
Logical flaw: Assumes pre-LS success is an accurate predictor of LS success.
Not assuming that - you assumed it isn't.
It is more accurate than say a chance bet.
If you compete against special ed kids in math, and are not a special ed kid, I would bet you won't be under median.