University of Arizona (In-state sticker) Still bad decision?

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Glock
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Re: University of Arizona (In-state sticker) Still bad decision?

Postby Glock » Tue Jul 19, 2011 2:43 pm

aldoleopold wrote:
Your generic 0L entering UA has a 90% chance of not even being a serious candidate for interviews at the 3 firms that provide well over half of the summer associate positions in phoenix


This statistic is a complete fabrication. I mean, how do you calculate the percentage of a non-likelihood? I think the sizable donations that firms such as Lewis and Roca and Snell and Wilmer made to the College and their significant involvement in most social functions represents the fact that these firms realize that the Arizona law schools are their bread and butter when it comes to summer and entry-level associates. I do not quite see a torrential flow of T-14 grads into Arizona markets, and even if that was the case, an U of A grad will have a significant shot at being considered.

And, there are sizable imprints of grads in the Texas and California, as well as the Nevada markets once you factor in the overall small size of the college.

And yes, you do need to perform well to be considered for the more well-known firms in Phoenix and Tucson, but I doubt this person, or any applicant for that matter, attends law school without believing that they can perform at their respective school's highest-level Even, if grades preclude this person from obtaining a +100K position in Phoenix or Tucson, there are still a plethora of more middling, legal and quasi-legal jobs in Arizona that will more than cover loan payments when you factor in the low-cost of living in Tucson and portions of Phoenix.

The fact of the matter is, the U of A is an excellent REGIONAL school that will more than make you competitive in its region's legal markets as long as you have earned the grades to do so.

And let's face it, Arizonans, and most Westerners are very skeptical of Easterners with immaculate credentials. If you want a judgeship, political office or government work nothing will carry you as far as an Arizona or ASU JD.



To the bolded: that is what I am talking about. 80% of the class enters expecting to be in the 10% because they are going to work really hard. Is that a reasonable expectation?

I addressed the small law and 90k and less jobs. There are a stack of those.

Don't overrate the regionalism effect. ASU and UA JD's are more valuable in AZ than NYC, obviously, but a T14 candidate is also very strong here. They just have to put down roots and their credentials do help them. Firms want Yale, Harvard, Cornell, Michigan, etc on their website. It shows how prominent they are too. AZ supreme court makeup: Two UA grads (one of which went on to get an LLM from UVA), one ASU grad, one Yale, one Harvard. That is pretty typical.

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Re: University of Arizona (In-state sticker) Still bad decision?

Postby Glock » Tue Jul 19, 2011 2:45 pm

Veyron wrote:
BeautifulSW wrote:Wow. I wonder how many $115K associates are hired every year in Phoenix?


Between 20 and 30.





But the big law firms donate money to UA and hubbub at social events. All of those must be UA grads including some outside the top 10%, right? :lol:

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Re: University of Arizona (In-state sticker) Still bad decision?

Postby Veyron » Tue Jul 19, 2011 2:48 pm

Glock wrote:
Veyron wrote:
BeautifulSW wrote:Wow. I wonder how many $115K associates are hired every year in Phoenix?


Between 20 and 30.





But the big law firms donate money to UA and hubbub at social events. All of those must be UA grads including some outside the top 10%, right? :lol:


From what I've seen it seems to be about 60-70% ASU, U of A, BYU grads, the rest T-14 grads (with the occasional UCLA, UT, etc.)

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Re: University of Arizona (In-state sticker) Still bad decision?

Postby aldoleopold » Tue Jul 19, 2011 2:52 pm

Never stated that any U of A or ASU grad would be a lock for a 115K job. Only stated that there are significant advantages to going to the U of A if that person has realistic expectations for getting good grades and looking for employment in Arizona or parts of the Greater Southwest. If this student performs well enough, he/she has more than a puncher's shot to land a +100K salary. If not, the low cost of living in Tucson and portions of Phoenix will more than make his/her loan repayment for his 78K tuition more than manageable with a middling salary.

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Re: University of Arizona (In-state sticker) Still bad decision?

Postby Veyron » Tue Jul 19, 2011 2:53 pm

aldoleopold wrote:Never stated that any U of A or ASU grad would be a lock for a 115K job. Only stated that there are significant advantages to going to the U of A if that person has realistic expectations for getting good grades and looking for employment in Arizona or parts of the Greater Southwest. If this student performs well enough, he/she has more than a puncher's shot to land a +100K salary. If not, the low cost of living in Tucson and portions of Phoenix will more than make his/her loan repayment for his 78K tuition more than manageable with a middling salary.


Waaaaait, 7 people from each class = more than a puncher's shot?

P.S. Half of the 1L class at ASU had trouble even getting unpaid summer work. You think they are going to land full time PAYING jobs in law? I am very confused about how you come by these views.

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Re: University of Arizona (In-state sticker) Still bad decision?

Postby Glock » Tue Jul 19, 2011 2:59 pm

Veyron wrote:
Glock wrote:
Veyron wrote:
BeautifulSW wrote:Wow. I wonder how many $115K associates are hired every year in Phoenix?


Between 20 and 30.





But the big law firms donate money to UA and hubbub at social events. All of those must be UA grads including some outside the top 10%, right? :lol:


From what I've seen it seems to be about 60-70% ASU, U of A, BYU grads, the rest T-14 grads (with the occasional UCLA, UT, etc.)



I agree. You are looking at 7-10 ASU grads, 7-10 UA grads, 3-5 BYU, 7-10 T14. Proportions decided by number that are actually hired.

In any reasonable guess you are looking at a tiny tiny fraction of ASU and UA getting the Phoenix midlaw jobs. It just is not reasonable to go into ASU/UA and expect to come out of the other side with one.

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Re: University of Arizona (In-state sticker) Still bad decision?

Postby Glock » Tue Jul 19, 2011 3:01 pm

Veyron wrote:
aldoleopold wrote:Never stated that any U of A or ASU grad would be a lock for a 115K job. Only stated that there are significant advantages to going to the U of A if that person has realistic expectations for getting good grades and looking for employment in Arizona or parts of the Greater Southwest. If this student performs well enough, he/she has more than a puncher's shot to land a +100K salary. If not, the low cost of living in Tucson and portions of Phoenix will more than make his/her loan repayment for his 78K tuition more than manageable with a middling salary.


Waaaaait, 7 people from each class = more than a puncher's shot?

P.S. Half of the 1L class at ASU had trouble even getting unpaid summer work. You think they are going to land full time PAYING jobs in law? I am very confused about how you come by these views.



If you want something to be true bad enough magic intervenes and makes it so.

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Re: University of Arizona (In-state sticker) Still bad decision?

Postby aldoleopold » Tue Jul 19, 2011 3:01 pm

"More than a puncher's shot" signifies the likelihood that an event is far from inevitable, but is not precluded from ever happening. A large percentage of U of A grads will be precluded from a top-earning position. But, that is not to say that all U of A grads can be assured of the same fate.

The crux of the matter is that there are significant advantages of going to the U of A if you are an in-state student who expects to practice in Arizona.

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Re: University of Arizona (In-state sticker) Still bad decision?

Postby Glock » Tue Jul 19, 2011 3:03 pm

aldoleopold wrote:Never stated that any U of A or ASU grad would be a lock for a 115K job. Only stated that there are significant advantages to going to the U of A if that person has realistic expectations for getting good grades and looking for employment in Arizona or parts of the Greater Southwest. If this student performs well enough, he/she has more than a puncher's shot to land a +100K salary. If not, the low cost of living in Tucson and portions of Phoenix will more than make his/her loan repayment for his 78K tuition more than manageable with a middling salary.



The bolded part is the most important part of this statement. IF THIS STUDENT PERFORMS WELL ENOUGH. True, top 10% as ASU/UA has a very good chance at midlaw. It isn't guaranteed, but your school and grades are not the thing holding you back. The other 90%? Not so lucky. This just returns us to the question about the reasonableness of expecting to be in the top 10%.

ASU/UA are not considered TTT, especially in Arizona. We are not talking about Phoenix School of Law or something. Still, there are few top jobs at a few top firms and only a tiny portion of ASU/UA are getting them, and virtually all of those people are Top 10%.

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Re: University of Arizona (In-state sticker) Still bad decision?

Postby Veyron » Tue Jul 19, 2011 3:07 pm

The crux of the matter is that there are significant advantages of going to the U of A if you are an in-state student who expects to practice in Arizona.


This, at least, is true. But going for sticker still makes no fucking sense.

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Re: University of Arizona (In-state sticker) Still bad decision?

Postby aldoleopold » Tue Jul 19, 2011 3:18 pm

It makes legitimate sense when you take into account the relatively low-cost of tuition. You must also take into account the fact that he/she is more than eligible at this point to finish at the top of their class and be in consideration for a top-earning position. Even if this likelihood does not come to pass, he/she has a decent chance of earning a more middling salary which, when coupled with the low cost of living as well as the low property and tax rates in Tucson and parts of Phoenix, makes his/her loan repayment more than manageable. When these points are taken into consideration, the U of A seems like a very attractive option for someone with realistic expectations.

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Re: University of Arizona (In-state sticker) Still bad decision?

Postby aldoleopold » Tue Jul 19, 2011 3:22 pm

Glock wrote:
Veyron wrote:
BeautifulSW wrote:Wow. I wonder how many $115K associates are hired every year in Phoenix?


Between 20 and 30.





But the big law firms donate money to UA and hubbub at social events. All of those must be UA grads including some outside the top 10%, right? :lol:


Absolutely not. It demonstrates the willingness to cultivate an important recruiting site where a lot of potential applicants annually come from. It is not as if the entire graduating class is going to be absorbed by any or all of these firms. That notion is simply ridiculous.

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Re: University of Arizona (In-state sticker) Still bad decision?

Postby aldoleopold » Tue Jul 19, 2011 3:24 pm

If you want something to be true bad enough magic intervenes and makes it so.[/quote]

If I am not mistaken, "more than a puncher's shot" means something is statistically unlikely, but not inevitable. But, I suppose that is my fault for using an ambiguous cliche.

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Re: University of Arizona (In-state sticker) Still bad decision?

Postby Veyron » Tue Jul 19, 2011 3:32 pm

aldoleopold wrote:It makes legitimate sense when you take into account the relatively low-cost of tuition. You must also take into account the fact that he/she is more than eligible at this point to finish at the top of their class and be in consideration for a top-earning position. Even if this likelihood does not come to pass, he/she has a decent chance of earning a more middling salary which, when coupled with the low cost of living as well as the low property and tax rates in Tucson and parts of Phoenix, makes his/her loan repayment more than manageable. When these points are taken into consideration, the U of A seems like a very attractive option for someone with realistic expectations.


At sticker borrowing up to COL even in state will be about 120k, meaning about 14k in loan payments a year. The people who will finish at the top of the class are likely to be on scholarships, so your first assumption is flawed. There is not a decent chance of a middling salary, Phoenix and Tucson midlaw is very competitive. When these points are taken into consideration, U of A can make sense, but only for someone who is getting a substantial discount.

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Re: University of Arizona (In-state sticker) Still bad decision?

Postby aldoleopold » Tue Jul 19, 2011 3:58 pm

At sticker borrowing up to COL even in state will be about 120k, meaning about 14k in loan payments a year. The people who will finish at the top of the class are likely to be on scholarships, so your first assumption is flawed. There is not a decent chance of a middling salary, Phoenix and Tucson midlaw is very competitive. When these points are taken into consideration, U of A can make sense, but only for someone who is getting a substantial discount.


No, the full cost of attendance will not be 120K. This student stated that he/she has enough to cover one year of living expenses--which they overestimated to be between 12-14K a year. As a student in Tucson,one can survive comfortably on 6,000-8,000 a year, and can probably live a more spartan existence for about 5,000 a year. More likely than not, if this student lives an economical lifestyle, the debt he/she will accumulate will not 90,000. Which calculates to about 1,045.00 a month over a ten year period. This is not an unreasonable level of debt. With the student's cost of living estimate and his/her already acquired savings, the COA will be approximately 102,000. This level of debt calculates to a monthly payment of 1,211.00 a month over a ten year period--which is also a manageable amount.

Furthermore, a salary that makes such payments tolerable does not necessarily have to come in the form of a medium-sized or large firm. One can go in-house--which many grads do-- or find employment in a quasi-legal position, small practice, or some sectors of government work.
Last edited by aldoleopold on Tue Jul 19, 2011 4:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: University of Arizona (In-state sticker) Still bad decision?

Postby aldoleopold » Tue Jul 19, 2011 4:04 pm

Veyron wrote:
aldoleopold wrote:It makes legitimate sense when you take into account the relatively low-cost of tuition. You must also take into account the fact that he/she is more than eligible at this point to finish at the top of their class and be in consideration for a top-earning position. Even if this likelihood does not come to pass, he/she has a decent chance of earning a more middling salary which, when coupled with the low cost of living as well as the low property and tax rates in Tucson and parts of Phoenix, makes his/her loan repayment more than manageable. When these points are taken into consideration, the U of A seems like a very attractive option for someone with realistic expectations.


At sticker borrowing up to COL even in state will be about 120k, meaning about 14k in loan payments a year. The people who will finish at the top of the class are likely to be on scholarships, so your first assumption is flawed. There is not a decent chance of a middling salary, Phoenix and Tucson midlaw is very competitive. When these points are taken into consideration, U of A can make sense, but only for someone who is getting a substantial discount.


Your form of syllogistic logic is equally flawed since you suppose that students on scholarship are going to better students due to grades they earned as an undergrad in a non-Law course of study or more likely, LSAT scores. But, there is not conclusive evidence that LSAT or grades are a significant indicator of success in law school or one's legal career. Your premise operates on an equally unverified proposition. So, there is no evidence to suggest that a non-scholarship student has a lesser chance to do well in law school.

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Re: University of Arizona (In-state sticker) Still bad decision?

Postby Veyron » Tue Jul 19, 2011 4:10 pm

aldoleopold wrote:
Veyron wrote:
aldoleopold wrote:It makes legitimate sense when you take into account the relatively low-cost of tuition. You must also take into account the fact that he/she is more than eligible at this point to finish at the top of their class and be in consideration for a top-earning position. Even if this likelihood does not come to pass, he/she has a decent chance of earning a more middling salary which, when coupled with the low cost of living as well as the low property and tax rates in Tucson and parts of Phoenix, makes his/her loan repayment more than manageable. When these points are taken into consideration, the U of A seems like a very attractive option for someone with realistic expectations.


At sticker borrowing up to COL even in state will be about 120k, meaning about 14k in loan payments a year. The people who will finish at the top of the class are likely to be on scholarships, so your first assumption is flawed. There is not a decent chance of a middling salary, Phoenix and Tucson midlaw is very competitive. When these points are taken into consideration, U of A can make sense, but only for someone who is getting a substantial discount.


Your form of syllogistic logic is equally flawed since you suppose that students on scholarship are going to better students due to grades they earned as an undergrad in a non-Law course of study or more likely, LSAT scores. But, there is not conclusive evidence that LSAT or grades are a significant indicator of success in law school or one's legal career. Your premise operates on an equally unverified proposition. So, there is no evidence to suggest that a non-scholarship student has a lesser chance to do well in law school.


There is evidence to suggest that combined LSAT/GPA corelate with class rank. Going in house is something that you can't typically do untill you have a few years of firm experience. Tucson is cheap but lets be real, you can't live there on five hundred dollars a month - it isn't Ghana. Do you want to blow any more smoke?

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Re: University of Arizona (In-state sticker) Still bad decision?

Postby aldoleopold » Tue Jul 19, 2011 4:47 pm

My mistake, those expenses are the ones I compiled while was a U of A freshman while school was in session. The 5,000 estimate broke down to about $625.00 a month while school was in session. I split a 1 bedroom apartment with a friend-- her living space was in the bedroom while mine was in the living room. It was an older building that charged 375.00 a month, and included water and sewage. About 40.00 a month for internet and electricity and no vehicle or cell-phone expenses left about 400.00 a month for ramen and lemonade. The major downside was that the building utilized a swamp cooler instead of A/C, which cut down on electricity costs but failed to effectively cool the apartment about 75% of the time. But, that's what the library is for-- free air-conditioning!

So, if you have some gumption, like I did for that very brief amount of time $625.00 is more than manageable. But, then again I am a girl and I am not sure how much food a guy would need to eat and if you need a cell phone those are going to go up a lot.

And you can also supplement the loan income by working in the summer and during the breaks finding any sort of work which is p, which is what I did the remainder of college and I benefited from a much more comfortable standard of living. I hovered around 8,000.00 the rest of my college years and lived a fairly comfortable existence as long as I had a roommate sharing expenses and a few neighbors willing to chip in on a wireless internet.
Last edited by aldoleopold on Tue Jul 19, 2011 4:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: University of Arizona (In-state sticker) Still bad decision?

Postby aldoleopold » Tue Jul 19, 2011 4:54 pm

Veyron wrote:
aldoleopold wrote:
Veyron wrote:
aldoleopold wrote:It makes legitimate sense when you take into account the relatively low-cost of tuition. You must also take into account the fact that he/she is more than eligible at this point to finish at the top of their class and be in consideration for a top-earning position. Even if this likelihood does not come to pass, he/she has a decent chance of earning a more middling salary which, when coupled with the low cost of living as well as the low property and tax rates in Tucson and parts of Phoenix, makes his/her loan repayment more than manageable. When these points are taken into consideration, the U of A seems like a very attractive option for someone with realistic expectations.


At sticker borrowing up to COL even in state will be about 120k, meaning about 14k in loan payments a year. The people who will finish at the top of the class are likely to be on scholarships, so your first assumption is flawed. There is not a decent chance of a middling salary, Phoenix and Tucson midlaw is very competitive. When these points are taken into consideration, U of A can make sense, but only for someone who is getting a substantial discount.


Your form of syllogistic logic is equally flawed since you suppose that students on scholarship are going to better students due to grades they earned as an undergrad in a non-Law course of study or more likely, LSAT scores. But, there is not conclusive evidence that LSAT or grades are a significant indicator of success in law school or one's legal career. Your premise operates on an equally unverified proposition. So, there is no evidence to suggest that a non-scholarship student has a lesser chance to do well in law school.


There is evidence to suggest that combined LSAT/GPA corelate with class rank. Going in house is something that you can't typically do untill you have a few years of firm experience. Tucson is cheap but lets be real, you can't live there on five hundred dollars a month - it isn't Ghana. Do you want to blow any more smoke?


A lot of U of A students come from corporate backgrounds doing quasi-legal work and then get a JD on that company's dime to become lawyers for that company or return to their former quasi-legal positions.
And from what I hear, Ghana and many other African countries are very expensive for expatriate Americans.

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Re: University of Arizona (In-state sticker) Still bad decision?

Postby aldoleopold » Tue Jul 19, 2011 4:59 pm

Veyron wrote:
aldoleopold wrote:
Veyron wrote:
aldoleopold wrote:It makes legitimate sense when you take into account the relatively low-cost of tuition. You must also take into account the fact that he/she is more than eligible at this point to finish at the top of their class and be in consideration for a top-earning position. Even if this likelihood does not come to pass, he/she has a decent chance of earning a more middling salary which, when coupled with the low cost of living as well as the low property and tax rates in Tucson and parts of Phoenix, makes his/her loan repayment more than manageable. When these points are taken into consideration, the U of A seems like a very attractive option for someone with realistic expectations.


At sticker borrowing up to COL even in state will be about 120k, meaning about 14k in loan payments a year. The people who will finish at the top of the class are likely to be on scholarships, so your first assumption is flawed. There is not a decent chance of a middling salary, Phoenix and Tucson midlaw is very competitive. When these points are taken into consideration, U of A can make sense, but only for someone who is getting a substantial discount.


Your form of syllogistic logic is equally flawed since you suppose that students on scholarship are going to better students due to grades they earned as an undergrad in a non-Law course of study or more likely, LSAT scores. But, there is not conclusive evidence that LSAT or grades are a significant indicator of success in law school or one's legal career. Your premise operates on an equally unverified proposition. So, there is no evidence to suggest that a non-scholarship student has a lesser chance to do well in law school.


There is evidence to suggest that combined LSAT/GPA corelate with class rank. Going in house is something that you can't typically do untill you have a few years of firm experience. Tucson is cheap but lets be real, you can't live there on five hundred dollars a month - it isn't Ghana. Do you want to blow any more smoke?


There is also a significant correlation between crime and bread and water consumption. After all, most criminals are almost 100% likely to have eaten a slice of bread and had a sip of water within 24 hours of committing a crime. The fact of the matter is that you cannot prove anything statistically. Strong correlation does not ever equate to "proof."

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Re: University of Arizona (In-state sticker) Still bad decision?

Postby Veyron » Tue Jul 19, 2011 5:00 pm

[/quote]A lot of U of A students come from corporate backgrounds doing quasi-legal work and then get a JD on that company's dime to become lawyers for that company or return to their former quasi-legal positions.[/quote]

Where are you getting all of this wild information? My guess is either 0L, graduated a long time ago, or admissions office shill.

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Re: University of Arizona (In-state sticker) Still bad decision?

Postby scammedhard » Tue Jul 19, 2011 5:11 pm

Veyron wrote:Where are you getting all of this wild information? My guess is either 0L, graduated a long time ago, or admissions office shill.
0L interested in "environmental law." He/she wrote on May 02, 2011, on "Program Specific Softs":
Hello,

I am thinking about testing the law school waters and had a question about how relevant certain softs are to law school applications. For example, I am currently an MA student in environmental history that is interested in going into environmental law. I have an article soon to be published in a respectable academic journal and have been on the editorial staff of a prominent academic publication involved with environmental history.

Would these soft factors earn me any points if I applied to a program that seeks to attract students interested in environmental law, such as NYU, or do I stand the same chance as any other applicant with the same LSAT score and GPA?

Thank you so much for your help.

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=154685&p=4363678#p4363678

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Re: University of Arizona (In-state sticker) Still bad decision?

Postby aldoleopold » Tue Jul 19, 2011 5:20 pm

scammedhard wrote:
Veyron wrote:Where are you getting all of this wild information? My guess is either 0L, graduated a long time ago, or admissions office shill.
0L interested in "environmental law." He/she wrote on May 02, 2011, on "Program Specific Softs":
Hello,

I am thinking about testing the law school waters and had a question about how relevant certain softs are to law school applications. For example, I am currently an MA student in environmental history that is interested in going into environmental law. I have an article soon to be published in a respectable academic journal and have been on the editorial staff of a prominent academic publication involved with environmental history.

Would these soft factors earn me any points if I applied to a program that seeks to attract students interested in environmental law, such as NYU, or do I stand the same chance as any other applicant with the same LSAT score and GPA?

Thank you so much for your help.

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=154685&p=4363678#p4363678


Yup, that's me.

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Re: University of Arizona (In-state sticker) Still bad decision?

Postby Glock » Tue Jul 19, 2011 5:23 pm

aldoleopold wrote:Absolutely not. It demonstrates the willingness to cultivate an important recruiting site where a lot of potential applicants annually come from. It is not as if the entire graduating class is going to be absorbed by any or all of these firms. That notion is simply ridiculous.



I am simply mocking the idea that you are talking up people's chances at 115k+midlaw when only 7-10 members of the class are going to get those jobs. Also, UA is not realistically going to land biglaw jobs outside of Arizona so most people's chances are going to live and die with just those 7-10 jobs that only the top 10% has a realistic shot at getting. That is called BAD ODDS.

Most ASU/UA students have a negative expected value in going to law school. Did not used to be true and may change one day, but that is the way it is ITE.

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Re: University of Arizona (In-state sticker) Still bad decision?

Postby LilGuy » Tue Jul 19, 2011 5:23 pm

I am a UA undergrad, and I live on about $600 a month. Below $550 would be possible, but you would have to cut a lot of costs, including not buying internet, buying cheaper groceries and finding cheaper rent.
Last edited by LilGuy on Tue Jul 19, 2011 5:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.




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