Are Some T14 Graduates Getting Buried by LS Debt?

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cubswin
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Re: Are Some T14 Graduates Getting Buried by LS Debt?

Postby cubswin » Wed Mar 23, 2011 8:35 pm

Alex-Trof wrote:
Aberzombie1892 wrote:Let me put it this way, about 45% of the graduates from the average T14 are in a better position than about 80% of the graduates of most of the T50 (the top 20% - on average - of the T50 are competitive for positions that are accessible to the 45% of graduates from most of the T14).

The remaining 55% of T14 graduates (on average) are not in a better position than remaining 80% of the T50 (on average). If you are one of those people that believe people outside of the top 20% of T50 schools are screwed, then you should equally assume that remaining 55% (on average) of the T14 are screwed as well.

Most "midlaw" is just as hard to get as big law, and frequently these positions go to students who could have gotten big law but chose not to.


I don't think 55% of T14 are screwed. Not everybody is gunning for big law in a first place. Further looking at the numbers, about half goes straight into big law. 10-15% do clerkships, another 5-10% do federal jobs, + another 5% does academia, corporate or something else valuable. Keeping this in mind, I do think that vast majority of people interested in well-paying big law jobs will get them.


Kind of a big jump from your evidence to your conclusion.

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AreJay711
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Re: Are Some T14 Graduates Getting Buried by LS Debt?

Postby AreJay711 » Wed Mar 23, 2011 8:38 pm

cubswin wrote:
Alex-Trof wrote:
Aberzombie1892 wrote:Let me put it this way, about 45% of the graduates from the average T14 are in a better position than about 80% of the graduates of most of the T50 (the top 20% - on average - of the T50 are competitive for positions that are accessible to the 45% of graduates from most of the T14).

The remaining 55% of T14 graduates (on average) are not in a better position than remaining 80% of the T50 (on average). If you are one of those people that believe people outside of the top 20% of T50 schools are screwed, then you should equally assume that remaining 55% (on average) of the T14 are screwed as well.

Most "midlaw" is just as hard to get as big law, and frequently these positions go to students who could have gotten big law but chose not to.


I don't think 55% of T14 are screwed. Not everybody is gunning for big law in a first place. Further looking at the numbers, about half goes straight into big law. 10-15% do clerkships, another 5-10% do federal jobs, + another 5% does academia, corporate or something else valuable. Keeping this in mind, I do think that vast majority of people interested in well-paying big law jobs will get them.


Kind of a big jump from your evidence to your conclusion.


So 70-80 % (ok this is assuming that the people in clerkships, federal jobs, corporate, and PI, which is missing actually want that and not big law) isn't a solid majority to you considering there are at least some people who want to work for firms that aren't considered biglaw?

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Redsgomarchingon
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Re: Are Some T14 Graduates Getting Buried by LS Debt?

Postby Redsgomarchingon » Wed Mar 23, 2011 9:40 pm

vanwinkle wrote:
Redsgomarchingon wrote:even if you don't make biglaw and you're 150,000 in debt, at 6.8% interest, you'd be paying around 21,000 a year for a little over 10 years. Therefore, you'd be alright making 65K/yr. Not living the dream of course, but around the national average for income and definitely not in a cardboard box. For a recently graduated history major who needs a few years of work experience before they're making decent money anyway, this isn't that bad of an outcome

Flaw: Presumes attainable employment pays $65K/yr.


granted, but from the available employment data, I'd extrapolate that 80% of graduates at the lowest T14s pull over 60K, and if you're seriously getting rocked you'd know by the end of the first year and can drop out

EDIT: The "80%" I'm inferring would include PI people who get debt forgiveness, even though they're not actually making over 60K (they would pay less yearly on their loans)

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vanwinkle
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Re: Are Some T14 Graduates Getting Buried by LS Debt?

Postby vanwinkle » Wed Mar 23, 2011 9:49 pm

Redsgomarchingon wrote:granted, but from the available employment data, I'd extrapolate that 80% of graduates at the lowest T14s pull over 60K, and if you're seriously getting rocked you'd know by the end of the first year and can drop out

Both "extrapolations" are wrong, IMO.

Brock2010
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Re: Are Some T14 Graduates Getting Buried by LS Debt?

Postby Brock2010 » Wed Mar 23, 2011 10:00 pm

Redsgomarchingon wrote:even if you don't make biglaw and you're 150,000 in debt, at 6.8% interest, you'd be paying around 21,000 a year for a little over 10 years. Therefore, you'd be alright making 65K/yr. Not living the dream of course, but around the national average for income and definitely not in a cardboard box. For a recently graduated history major who needs a few years of work experience before they're making decent money anyway, this isn't that bad of an outcome


what t14 can you go to for 150000?

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Re: Are Some T14 Graduates Getting Buried by LS Debt?

Postby dabbadon8 » Wed Mar 23, 2011 10:18 pm

Brock2010 wrote:
Redsgomarchingon wrote:even if you don't make biglaw and you're 150,000 in debt, at 6.8% interest, you'd be paying around 21,000 a year for a little over 10 years. Therefore, you'd be alright making 65K/yr. Not living the dream of course, but around the national average for income and definitely not in a cardboard box. For a recently graduated history major who needs a few years of work experience before they're making decent money anyway, this isn't that bad of an outcome


what t14 can you go to for 150000?


One with a scholarship... Debt doesn't stop being a concern for those with some $.

I think people are being a little too pessimistic. Most of the T-14's LRAP means that no one needs to be be buried by debt. For example, if I go to umich I will be able to make up to 50k without paying a cent towards loans while receiving help up to 88k. This is for both PI and private jobs. Now I am not saying this is the dream, but 50k isn't peanuts especially with no loan payments. Most new LRAP's that dovetail with IBR are similar. Point is that I think it be hard considering LRAP/IBR to get completely screwed/buried unless you took out ineligible loans.
Last edited by dabbadon8 on Wed Mar 23, 2011 10:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.

whymeohgodno
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Re: Are Some T14 Graduates Getting Buried by LS Debt?

Postby whymeohgodno » Wed Mar 23, 2011 10:20 pm

Simple answer: Yes.

Dave Davely
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Re: Are Some T14 Graduates Getting Buried by LS Debt?

Postby Dave Davely » Wed Mar 23, 2011 10:30 pm

whymeohgodno wrote:Simple answer: Yes.


Care to elaborate?

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Re: Are Some T14 Graduates Getting Buried by LS Debt?

Postby pereira6 » Wed Mar 23, 2011 10:34 pm

dabbadon8 wrote:
One with a scholarship... Debt doesn't stop being a concern for those with some $.

I think people are being a little too pessimistic. Most of the T-14's LRAP means that no one needs to be be buried by debt. For example, if I go to umich I will be able to make up to 50k without paying a cent towards loans while receiving help up to 88k. This is for both PI and private jobs. Now I am not saying this is the dream, but 50k isn't peanuts especially with no loan payments. Most new LRAP's that dovetail with IBR are similar. Point is that I think it be hard considering LRAP/IBR to get completely screwed/buried unless you took out ineligible loans.


This is basically what I'm hoping for (currently looking at Penn at 160-165k). I'm aiming for big things, but I just want to make sure that if things go bad (read: get a 60k private firm job that I personally think is very much attainable if I miss biglaw) I can still be able to start a family, get a decent mortgage, etc. Paying 2 grand a month in loans makes that hard to accomplish. Paying 550 under IBR makes it better. I'm just researching how solid IBR is now and in the future, and what I can do to set myself up to qualify for it.

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Re: Are Some T14 Graduates Getting Buried by LS Debt?

Postby Georgetown51 » Wed Mar 23, 2011 11:07 pm

Redsgomarchingon wrote:
vanwinkle wrote:
Redsgomarchingon wrote:even if you don't make biglaw and you're 150,000 in debt, at 6.8% interest, you'd be paying around 21,000 a year for a little over 10 years. Therefore, you'd be alright making 65K/yr. Not living the dream of course, but around the national average for income and definitely not in a cardboard box. For a recently graduated history major who needs a few years of work experience before they're making decent money anyway, this isn't that bad of an outcome

Flaw: Presumes attainable employment pays $65K/yr.


granted, but from the available employment data, I'd extrapolate that 80% of graduates at the lowest T14s pull over 60K, and if you're seriously getting rocked you'd know by the end of the first year and can drop out

EDIT: The "80%" I'm inferring would include PI people who get debt forgiveness, even though they're not actually making over 60K (they would pay less yearly on their loans)


That 65k salary is pre-tax. You may get a deduction for student loan interest payments, but this still effectively just takes it out of pre-tax salary while your leftover is taxed. If making actual payments of $21,000 on a 65k pre-tax salary, you are looking at MAYBE $30,000 after taxes. Not exactly the type of money you can use to save up for anything or support a family on.

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Re: Are Some T14 Graduates Getting Buried by LS Debt?

Postby whymeohgodno » Wed Mar 23, 2011 11:23 pm

Dave Davely wrote:
whymeohgodno wrote:Simple answer: Yes.


Care to elaborate?


I'm estimating that around half the people at T14 pay sticker. Around half do not get biglaw. If you add in clerkships/PI/good government positions MAYBE 40% end up not getting any of these. I'm guessing at least some of the 40% paid nearly sticker.

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Alex-Trof
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Re: Are Some T14 Graduates Getting Buried by LS Debt?

Postby Alex-Trof » Wed Mar 23, 2011 11:29 pm

The way I look at it, take all federal students loans (you don't need to have a need as long as you do it through FAFSA and don't consolidate) and then do IBR even if you don't qualify for LRAP. You will give up 10% of your income for 25 years. Is it worth it a shot at riches (big law)? Only you can decide.

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AreJay711
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Re: Are Some T14 Graduates Getting Buried by LS Debt?

Postby AreJay711 » Wed Mar 23, 2011 11:31 pm

Georgetown51 wrote:
Redsgomarchingon wrote:
vanwinkle wrote:
Redsgomarchingon wrote:even if you don't make biglaw and you're 150,000 in debt, at 6.8% interest, you'd be paying around 21,000 a year for a little over 10 years. Therefore, you'd be alright making 65K/yr. Not living the dream of course, but around the national average for income and definitely not in a cardboard box. For a recently graduated history major who needs a few years of work experience before they're making decent money anyway, this isn't that bad of an outcome

Flaw: Presumes attainable employment pays $65K/yr.


granted, but from the available employment data, I'd extrapolate that 80% of graduates at the lowest T14s pull over 60K, and if you're seriously getting rocked you'd know by the end of the first year and can drop out

EDIT: The "80%" I'm inferring would include PI people who get debt forgiveness, even though they're not actually making over 60K (they would pay less yearly on their loans)


That 65k salary is pre-tax. You may get a deduction for student loan interest payments, but this still effectively just takes it out of pre-tax salary while your leftover is taxed. If making actual payments of $21,000 on a 65k pre-tax salary, you are looking at MAYBE $30,000 after taxes. Not exactly the type of money you can use to save up for anything or support a family on.


Making loan payments of 21K a year would be dumb -- move that shit to 30 year repayment. IBR would keep it down from 1200 a month under 30 year repayment to be fairly manageable. Law school isn't really a great use of time under that scenario but it isn't financially ruinous either.

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bk1
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Re: Are Some T14 Graduates Getting Buried by LS Debt?

Postby bk1 » Thu Mar 24, 2011 2:52 am

zanda wrote:
bk1 wrote:
zanda wrote:PI plus good LRAP?


Exemplifying my comment when I say minimal.

Explain? Are you trying to contend that T14 people who don't get biglaw won't be able to get PI jobs? Certainly some won't be able, but many, likely most, will.

Better schools generally have better LRAP programs. Students from better schools will generally be more appealing to PI employers. Therefore, if you're not contending that it's the number of PI jobs that is minimal (your post is vague), but rather something else is minimal, I'm not following.


(full disclosure- I'm a T6 2L, PI focused, above median but not top third, paying almost sticker)


I'm contending that LRAP-qualifying jobs are not plentiful.

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Re: Are Some T14 Graduates Getting Buried by LS Debt?

Postby dabbadon8 » Thu Mar 24, 2011 3:09 am

bk1 wrote:
zanda wrote:
bk1 wrote:
zanda wrote:PI plus good LRAP?


Exemplifying my comment when I say minimal.

Explain? Are you trying to contend that T14 people who don't get biglaw won't be able to get PI jobs? Certainly some won't be able, but many, likely most, will.

Better schools generally have better LRAP programs. Students from better schools will generally be more appealing to PI employers. Therefore, if you're not contending that it's the number of PI jobs that is minimal (your post is vague), but rather something else is minimal, I'm not following.


(full disclosure- I'm a T6 2L, PI focused, above median but not top third, paying almost sticker)


I'm contending that LRAP-qualifying jobs are not plentiful.


I know michigan's LRAP covers all legal jobs. I don't know which others do.

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Wholigan
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Re: Are Some T14 Graduates Getting Buried by LS Debt?

Postby Wholigan » Thu Mar 24, 2011 9:13 am

Is the percentage of T14 grads who are "screwed" as high as some make it seem? Take Chicago for instance. I know it's T6, but just as an example, is this breakdown reasonable?

100%
-59% (employed in NLJ 250)
-13% (art III clerks)
-5% (in another “good” clerkship – SSC, etc)
-10% (self selected into gov’t, PI)
-3% (employed at smaller boutiques or market-paying firms not in NLJ250)
_________________________________
10% "screwed"

Am I making any wrong assumptions here? They all seem reasonable to me, but that's why I'm putting it to the forum. I know everyone talks about Art III clerkships, but I know of people who have been deferred from a firm job to do a state supreme court clerkship, especially at firms that are more regional, maybe on the smaller end of the NLJ 250.

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Moxie
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Re: Are Some T14 Graduates Getting Buried by LS Debt?

Postby Moxie » Thu Mar 24, 2011 9:32 am

Wholigan wrote:Is the percentage of T14 grads who are "screwed" as high as some make it seem? Take Chicago for instance. I know it's T6, but just as an example, is this breakdown reasonable?

100%
-59% (employed in NLJ 250)
-13% (art III clerks)
-5% (in another “good” clerkship – SSC, etc)
-10% (self selected into gov’t, PI)
-3% (employed at smaller boutiques or market-paying firms not in NLJ250)

_________________________________
10% "screwed"

Am I making any wrong assumptions here? They all seem reasonable to me, but that's why I'm putting it to the forum. I know everyone talks about Art III clerkships, but I know of people who have been deferred from a firm job to do a state supreme court clerkship, especially at firms that are more regional, maybe on the smaller end of the NLJ 250.


Where are you getting the bolded numbers? I'd imagine Gov/PI is lower, and midlaw/smal-law numbers would be a bit higher.

I'd imagine the number of screwed people would include many of the "other" 28% (not including Biglaw and Art III clerks)

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Wholigan
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Re: Are Some T14 Graduates Getting Buried by LS Debt?

Postby Wholigan » Thu Mar 24, 2011 9:38 am

Moxie wrote:Where are you getting the bolded numbers? I'd imagine Gov/PI is lower, and midlaw/smal-law numbers would be a bit higher.

I'd imagine the number of screwed people would include many of the "other" 28% (not including Biglaw and Art III clerks)


I should have clarified that I estimated the last three figures, because there is no readily available data for them, but I know they exist, and they are the ones I am interested in. I mean, it doesn't seem accurate to just say most of the 28% are screwed when there are known people who are going to work for the DOJ, become ADAs by choice, work for boutiques, deferred for a non-Art. III clerkship, etc.

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zanda
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Re: Are Some T14 Graduates Getting Buried by LS Debt?

Postby zanda » Thu Mar 24, 2011 9:52 am

bk1 wrote:
zanda wrote:
bk1 wrote:
zanda wrote:PI plus good LRAP?


Exemplifying my comment when I say minimal.

Explain? Are you trying to contend that T14 people who don't get biglaw won't be able to get PI jobs? Certainly some won't be able, but many, likely most, will.

Better schools generally have better LRAP programs. Students from better schools will generally be more appealing to PI employers. Therefore, if you're not contending that it's the number of PI jobs that is minimal (your post is vague), but rather something else is minimal, I'm not following.


(full disclosure- I'm a T6 2L, PI focused, above median but not top third, paying almost sticker)


I'm contending that LRAP-qualifying jobs are not plentiful.

They're not unlimited, but they are significant in number. Prestigious PI is very difficult to get, but the less prestigious (ex- random direct services office) are less difficult to get. Don't get me wrong- there are non-trivial amounts of people at T14 who are graduating without work. However, the PI jobs "qualifying for LRAP" (not sure what that means since any PI job, unless you'd count clerkships, would qualify for LRAP, unless I'm incorrect in assuming the other T14 LRAPs are fairly similar to my school's) available to T14 students are far from minimal.

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Re: Are Some T14 Graduates Getting Buried by LS Debt?

Postby Aberzombie1892 » Thu Mar 24, 2011 10:01 am

Dave Davely wrote:
Aberzombie1892 wrote:Let me put it this way, about 45% of the graduates from the average T14 are in a better position than about 80% of the graduates of most of the T50 (the top 20% - on average - of the T50 are competitive for positions that are accessible to the 45% of graduates from most of the T14).

The remaining 55% of T14 graduates (on average) are not in a better position than remaining 80% of the T50 (on average). If you are one of those people that believe people outside of the top 20% of T50 schools are screwed, then you should equally assume that remaining 55% (on average) of the T14 are screwed as well.

Most "midlaw" is just as hard to get as big law, and frequently these positions go to students who could have gotten big law but chose not to.


Isn't this assuming that T14 graduates who don't get Biglaw are in the exact same position as T50 graduates who don't get Biglaw. Do you really think that superior Biglaw placement is the only advantage (speaking strictly of employment prospects) of attending a T14 law school?


It's been statistically proven that the value of an elite degree declines over time. Thus, if you don't start out in a position that you otherwise would not have gotten, you have already lost much of the value of the degree. This is a very important concept that 0L's don't seem to understand. A few years after graduation, a T14 degree does not have more value than a non-T14 degree unless that T14 graduate has elite work experience coupled with the degree. As you can imagine, at that point, a non-T14 degree with good experience is worth more than a T14 degree with not-so-good experience. My advice is just be careful and understand what you are getting yourself into. And for your own sake, be responsible.

Also, this thread seemed aimed at only big law. Honestly, if you don't get a COA clerkship (or a COA feeder district court judge), big law, or big gov (only counting jobs only attainable through the summer honors programs), then you really aren't in a identifiably better position than your peers that went to lower ranked schools with larger scholarships. True there is some high profile PI, but if you aren't HYSCCN (as was already stated), you chances aren't that much higher from the T14 than graduates at the top non-t14 school in the city where that job is located (there are some hypothetical exceptions, however).

Be aware that LRAP's and IBR are interesting and all of that, but I'm not convinced that 0L's know enough about what they want to do to honestly choose to attend a school because they KNOW that they want to do PI/Gov. It may seem like what you want to do, but what if you change your mind and don't get big law? This is why scholarships and overall COA should always be a factor - you never know where you will be in three years or what you want to be doing. No one really wants to be making half of the market salary into their thirties and possibly forties (people want to save money, buy property, get married, have children, etc.).

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Re: Are Some T14 Graduates Getting Buried by LS Debt?

Postby pereira6 » Thu Mar 24, 2011 10:09 am

Aberzombie1892 wrote:
Be aware that LRAP's and IBR are interesting and all of that...no one really wants to be making half of the market salary into their thirties and possibly forties (people want to save money, buy property, get married, have children, etc.).


IBR grads can't do those things with a 60k salary + ~500-600 a month payment?

Again, not buying NYC condos, but a family and a mortgage is still readily attainable, no?

Please tell me if I'm wrong!

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Re: Are Some T14 Graduates Getting Buried by LS Debt?

Postby Wholigan » Thu Mar 24, 2011 10:20 am

Aberzombie1892 wrote:A few years after graduation, a T14 degree does not have more value than a non-T14 degree unless that T14 graduate has elite work experience coupled with the degree. As you can imagine, at that point, a non-T14 degree with good experience is worth more than a T14 degree with not-so-good experience


What about a T14 with several years of good work experience vs. a non-T14 with the same work experience? Isn't the T14 still in a better position? Let's say a T14 and a T2 regional grad work for the same large law firm for several years, and then both want to get out, to lateral to a boutique, more lifestyle-oriented firm, or corporate law department. All other things being equal, isn't the T14 going to have much better opportunities?

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Re: Are Some T14 Graduates Getting Buried by LS Debt?

Postby Moxie » Thu Mar 24, 2011 10:26 am

Wholigan wrote:
Aberzombie1892 wrote:A few years after graduation, a T14 degree does not have more value than a non-T14 degree unless that T14 graduate has elite work experience coupled with the degree. As you can imagine, at that point, a non-T14 degree with good experience is worth more than a T14 degree with not-so-good experience


What about a T14 with several years of good work experience vs. a non-T14 with the same work experience? Isn't the T14 still in a better position? Let's say a T14 and a T2 regional grad work for the same large law firm for several years, and then both want to get out, to lateral to a boutique, more lifestyle-oriented firm, or corporate law department. All other things being equal, isn't the T14 going to have much better opportunities?


At that point they're only going to care who's work product is better.

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Re: Are Some T14 Graduates Getting Buried by LS Debt?

Postby AreJay711 » Thu Mar 24, 2011 10:33 am

Aberzombie1892 wrote:Also, this thread seemed aimed at only big law. Honestly, if you don't get a COA clerkship (or a COA feeder district court judge), big law, or big gov (only counting jobs only attainable through the summer honors programs), then you really aren't in a identifiably better position than your peers that went to lower ranked schools with larger scholarships.


Yeah, but not being in an obviously better position doesn't mean you are screwed. At some level you pick a better school because if you don't get what you want, you are still about the same as you would have been at a significantly lower ranked school.

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Re: Are Some T14 Graduates Getting Buried by LS Debt?

Postby sarahh » Thu Mar 24, 2011 12:57 pm

pereira6 wrote:
Aberzombie1892 wrote:
Be aware that LRAP's and IBR are interesting and all of that...no one really wants to be making half of the market salary into their thirties and possibly forties (people want to save money, buy property, get married, have children, etc.).


IBR grads can't do those things with a 60k salary + ~500-600 a month payment?

Again, not buying NYC condos, but a family and a mortgage is still readily attainable, no?

Please tell me if I'm wrong!


I think it is doable, but it depends on where you live and what lifestyle you are willing to accept. My husband and I live in one of the most expensive parts of the country and we were making $40,000 combined when we first graduated. Yeah, we lived in a small apartment and went to the taqueria more than we went to fancy restaurants, but we were happy and did not feel deprived. (I am sure it is more difficult with kids though. How easy it is to buy a house will obviously depend on where you are - but it is not a necessity.)




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