Are these reasonable?

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alexonfyre
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Are these reasonable?

Postby alexonfyre » Sun Mar 06, 2011 5:34 pm

So I am a fairly severe splitter: 2.8/166 (That may be 2.9, based on LSAC, but I don't think it really matters.)
I am looking to apply to some good regional schools in areas I would like to work in, price isn't a factor since I am lucky enough to have been taken care of by family, so my debt burden will be very low, if any, anywhere I go. Important factors to me are location, global education (study abroad, law and culture courses, not necessarily international law though) and, obviously, overall quality of education. My softs are average, student government, successful mock trial, a couple years of work experience, upward grade trend and leadership demonstrated throughout, some community service which was important to me, but nothing that admissions will think is special.
I already have a thread about retaking the LSAT, and the general feeling is that I should, but I will list the schools I am considering with the numbers above, and update if/when I do retake, they are listed geographically to illustrate the regions I am interested in:

Boston:
BU
BC

New York:
Fordham*
Cardozo

DC:
George Washington
American**

Atlanta:
GSU
UGA

New Orleans:
Tulane**
LSU**

Chicago:
Kent
UIUC (ED)*
Loyola

California:
UC-Davis*
UC-Hastings*
UC-Irvine***

(*-Reach school, top choice)
(**-Safety, school I have a high chance of getting into by numbers or other factors)
(***-UCI is my number 1 choice by far, but despite a history of risk-taking and building new institutions and cultures [part of the reason my GPA was so low] I just don't see ever making it in. Still applying though.)

Thanks in advance for any input!

dddhhh
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Re: Are these reasonable?

Postby dddhhh » Sun Mar 06, 2011 5:46 pm

It's hard to know with splitters...all you can do is put your best foot forward: perfect application and cast a wide net. Good luck!

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RockyIII
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Re: Are these reasonable?

Postby RockyIII » Sun Mar 06, 2011 5:49 pm

Look at Law School Numbers for schools you are interested in. My guess:

alexonfyre wrote:Boston:
BU - WL
BC - WL

New York:
Fordham* - Out
Cardozo - In

DC:
George Washington - WL
American** - In

Atlanta:
GSU - In
UGA - In

New Orleans:
Tulane** - In
LSU** - In

Chicago:
Kent - In
UIUC (ED)* - WL / Out
Loyola - In

California:
UC-Davis* - WL
UC-Hastings* - WL
UC-Irvine*** - Out


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alexonfyre
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Re: Are these reasonable?

Postby alexonfyre » Sun Mar 06, 2011 5:50 pm

dddhhh wrote:It's hard to know with splitters...all you can do is put your best foot forward: perfect application and cast a wide net. Good luck!

Thanks! That is the plan, everything I have seen is that splitter applications are pure roulette. Seen people with my stats accepted in the top 20 and rejected at Tier 2... I have no idea what to expect.

@Rocky, that seems about what I think as well, though I also plan on applying Fordham and GW part-time. I should have mentioned that. Does that change anything?

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cinephile
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Re: Are these reasonable?

Postby cinephile » Sun Mar 06, 2011 5:58 pm

Also, apply super early.

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alexonfyre
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Re: Are these reasonable?

Postby alexonfyre » Sun Mar 06, 2011 6:19 pm

cinephile wrote:Also, apply super early.

Noted, I am already putting together my LORs and CAS stuff, and will be doing my personal statements over the summer, I will be applying well before halloween, and even before the end of september if everything goes well. Thanks!

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Lawquacious
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Re: Are these reasonable?

Postby Lawquacious » Sun Mar 06, 2011 6:30 pm

alexonfyre wrote:
BU- Out
BC- Out
Fordham- Out
Cardozo- Maybe
George Washington- Out
American- Maybe
GSU- Maybe
UGA- Out
Tulane- Maybe
LSU- Maybe
Kent- Maybe
UIUC (ED)- Maybe
Loyola- Maybe
UC-Davis- Out
UC-Hastings- Prob. Out
UC-Irvine- Out


My guesses. The 'maybe's mean 50/50 chances (maybe considerably above 50% for some of the T2 schools though) IMO. With that GPA I think some schools will be pretty hesitant, though your LSAT is strong enough where you might get some schools to give you a break (including perhaps some of the 'Out's, though I doubt it). I will say that I really don't know much at all about some of these school's admission policies (so some of these could be really off), but I think in general these guesses are not too far off.
Last edited by Lawquacious on Sun Mar 06, 2011 9:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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alexonfyre
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Re: Are these reasonable?

Postby alexonfyre » Sun Mar 06, 2011 6:45 pm

Lawquacious wrote:
alexonfyre wrote:
quote


My guesses. The 'maybe's mean 50/50 chances IMO. With that GPA I think some schools will be pretty hesitant, though your LSAT is strong enough where you might get some schools to give you a break (including perhaps some of the 'Out's, though I doubt it). I will say that I really don't know much at all about some of these school's admission policies (so some of these could be really off), but I think in general these guesses are not too far off.


I appreciate the estimates, but this is a little harsh, no? Even LSP is a little more optimistic than those.

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Lawquacious
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Re: Are these reasonable?

Postby Lawquacious » Sun Mar 06, 2011 7:37 pm

alexonfyre wrote:
Lawquacious wrote:
alexonfyre wrote:
quote


My guesses. The 'maybe's mean 50/50 chances IMO. With that GPA I think some schools will be pretty hesitant, though your LSAT is strong enough where you might get some schools to give you a break (including perhaps some of the 'Out's, though I doubt it). I will say that I really don't know much at all about some of these school's admission policies (so some of these could be really off), but I think in general these guesses are not too far off.


I appreciate the estimates, but this is a little harsh, no? Even LSP is a little more optimistic than those.


I don't know.. I think with your GPA it is probably not far off, but good luck. The 'maybe' category should mostly correlate to 'consider' on LSP. The 'Out' should mostly correlate to 'deny' or 'weak consider.' By 'Out' I don't mean no chance, but that I think the great likelihood is that you will be rejected at those (or maybe waitlist -> out). Not trying to be harsh, and hopefully you are right that your chances are better than I suspect. However, given the fact I indicated you have a reasonable shot at some of the T1 schools you applied at with a 2.8/2.9 and 166, I think it is somewhat of a hard sell that I am being harsh. If you had 5 extra points on your LSAT I think you would have a very different admissions picture (have a good shot at a number of T25 schools etc), but even then I think there would be a number of schools that would reject you simply for the GPA less than 3.0.

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Pricer
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Re: Are these reasonable?

Postby Pricer » Sun Mar 06, 2011 8:32 pm

alexonfyre wrote:
Lawquacious wrote:
alexonfyre wrote:
quote


My guesses. The 'maybe's mean 50/50 chances IMO. With that GPA I think some schools will be pretty hesitant, though your LSAT is strong enough where you might get some schools to give you a break (including perhaps some of the 'Out's, though I doubt it). I will say that I really don't know much at all about some of these school's admission policies (so some of these could be really off), but I think in general these guesses are not too far off.


I appreciate the estimates, but this is a little harsh, no? Even LSP is a little more optimistic than those.


LSP wasn't very useful for me. I think the data it uses is old, isn't it?

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RockyIII
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Re: Are these reasonable?

Postby RockyIII » Sun Mar 06, 2011 8:54 pm

Above estimates are a little harsh. I think you have a very good chance at most of the places I listed as "in", with the exception of Georgia, where you still have a decent chance.

However, I doubt pt will help all that much at GW or Fordham.

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JusticeHarlan
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Re: Are these reasonable?

Postby JusticeHarlan » Sun Mar 06, 2011 8:57 pm

alexonfyre wrote:Atlanta:
GSU
UGA

Why not Emory? Last cycle they took a 166/2.96, and so far this cycle they took a 166/3.05. Worth an app, I'd say.

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northwood
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Re: Are these reasonable?

Postby northwood » Sun Mar 06, 2011 9:00 pm

the earlier you apply the better. check out LSN to see if there are any gpa "floors" at any of those schools. Since you are applying for next cycle, try to determine where in the country you want to live- and apply to as many schools in that region as possible. Rmember that only the top 6 or schools are "national" schools, and that for the most part where you go to school will be most likely where you will start your career.( tegionally that is). once you answered that question- blanket the region and see how it plays out.

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Pricer
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Re: Are these reasonable?

Postby Pricer » Sun Mar 06, 2011 9:02 pm

JusticeHarlan wrote:
alexonfyre wrote:Atlanta:
GSU
UGA

Why not Emory? Last cycle they took a 166/2.96, and so far this cycle they took a 166/3.05. Worth an app, I'd say.


He is looking at zero money from Emory. It would be hard to justify that when he could claim in state at UGA after one year and come out with significantly less debt.

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JusticeHarlan
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Re: Are these reasonable?

Postby JusticeHarlan » Sun Mar 06, 2011 9:04 pm

Pricer wrote:
JusticeHarlan wrote:
alexonfyre wrote:Atlanta:
GSU
UGA

Why not Emory? Last cycle they took a 166/2.96, and so far this cycle they took a 166/3.05. Worth an app, I'd say.


He is looking at zero money from Emory. It would be hard to justify that when he could claim in state at UGA after one year and come out with significantly less debt.

99% of the time, I would agree. But OP said:
price isn't a factor since I am lucky enough to have been taken care of by family, so my debt burden will be very low, if any, anywhere I go

So I figure its worth an app.

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Pricer
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Re: Are these reasonable?

Postby Pricer » Sun Mar 06, 2011 9:08 pm

JusticeHarlan wrote:
Pricer wrote:
JusticeHarlan wrote:
alexonfyre wrote:Atlanta:
GSU
UGA

Why not Emory? Last cycle they took a 166/2.96, and so far this cycle they took a 166/3.05. Worth an app, I'd say.


He is looking at zero money from Emory. It would be hard to justify that when he could claim in state at UGA after one year and come out with significantly less debt.

99% of the time, I would agree. But OP said:
price isn't a factor since I am lucky enough to have been taken care of by family, so my debt burden will be very low, if any, anywhere I go

So I figure its worth an app.


Good point. Price is usually a major factor outside of HYS, I forget to consider that that is not the case for everyone.

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Lawquacious
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Re: Are these reasonable?

Postby Lawquacious » Sun Mar 06, 2011 9:21 pm

RockyIII wrote:Above estimates are a little harsh. I think you have a very good chance at most of the places I listed as "in", with the exception of Georgia, where you still have a decent chance.

However, I doubt pt will help all that much at GW or Fordham.



I think all the ones you said 'in' for I said 'maybe' for (with the exception of UGA, but I didn't realize before that he is in-state, which probably helps his chances considerably). For 'maybe' I already clarified that I think there is a reasonable shot he will get in, so in that regard I'm not sure that our assessments were so different since your 'in' and my 'maybe' were largely overlapping. If by 'in' you mean definite auto-admit, I think that doesn't hold true though (at least at some of the schools you put 'in' at) since he has a sub 3 GPA.

Anything is possible, but I had the same LSAT and a much higher GPA, and judging by my experience I simply think many of the schools OP is looking at will not accept him. I myself applied to a ton of reaches (some ridiculous), and I had to learn the hard way that law admissions is for the most part a numbers game where there aren't a lot of exceptions. Maybe he can be the exception and get some of those reaches though (and I admittedly might simply be off on my assessments, though I currently still doubt that I am too far off).

The one other thing re: comparing my comments to LSP is that I don't know how well LSP accounts for soft floors that a lot of schools seem to have for GPA (where sub-3.0 can be a problem, even with a really high LSAT in some cases). If I missed that OP is URM somehow then I think a whole different analysis would apply, but as far as I can tell OP is not URM.

I would be interested to see OP post results once they are in- I'd be happy to be proven wrong on any that I said 'out' for.

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Lawquacious
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Re: Are these reasonable?

Postby Lawquacious » Sun Mar 06, 2011 9:38 pm

JusticeHarlan wrote:
alexonfyre wrote:Atlanta:
GSU
UGA

Why not Emory? Last cycle they took a 166/2.96, and so far this cycle they took a 166/3.05. Worth an app, I'd say.



With those schollys I think those people are URMs who didn't post that info. It's also possible the real numbers aren't used. I remember when I was applying to schools I saw a profile that had a non-URM getting into Berkeley with a 166/3.5. It got my hopes up enough to apply, but looking back I think it was a waste of an app. Even if the two profiles you found are real numbers and non-URM (with considerable schollys no less), I think they would be a rare exception. I would be surprised to see a sub-3.0/166 non-URM get into Emory, nevermind get a nice scholly. I think there's a reason another TLS poster recently referred to Emory's '167 wall of death,' and that is probably a reference that assumes a reasonably strong GPA. At least at peer schools such as MN, sub 3.0/166 non-URM has basically no shot from what I can tell, but admittedly I don't know all the nuances for each school's adcomm approach.

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JusticeHarlan
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Re: Are these reasonable?

Postby JusticeHarlan » Sun Mar 06, 2011 9:47 pm

Lawquacious wrote:
JusticeHarlan wrote:
alexonfyre wrote:Atlanta:
GSU
UGA

Why not Emory? Last cycle they took a 166/2.96, and so far this cycle they took a 166/3.05. Worth an app, I'd say.



With those schollys I think those people are URMs who didn't post that info. It's also possible the real numbers aren't used. I remember when I was applying to schools I saw a profile that had a non-URM getting into Berkeley with a 166/3.5. It got my hopes up enough to apply, but looking back I think it was a waste of an app. Even if the two profiles you found are real numbers and non-URM (with considerable schollys no less), I think they would be a rare exception. I would be surprised to see a sub-3.0/166 non-URM get into Emory, nevermind get a nice scholly. I think there's a reason another TLS poster recently referred to Emory's '167 wall of death,' and that is probably a reference that assumes a reasonably strong GPA. At least at peer schools such as MN, sub 3.0/166 non-URM has basically no shot from what I can tell, but admittedly I don't know all the nuances for each school's adcomm approach.

Definitely true about not trusting LSN with total confidence, but I'm not sure I see a 'wall of death' at 167. 166 seems to be the magic number this year, at least for 3.0+ GPAs, and both this year and last the data we do have does seems to say they seemed at least somewhat willing to dip below their 25th percentile GPA.

I'm not an Emory troll or anything, I have no strong feelings one way or another about the school. I'm not suggesting OP should necessarily go to Emory, especially at sticker. But if OP is open to working in Atlanta, I don't see why he shouldn't at least apply. Splitters are pretty unpredictable, so firing another shot in the dark can only increase the odds of hitting something. And if he does get in, it either gives him another option for a school (assuming the finance issues work out), or at least a pretty solid chip for scholarship negotiations.

Just my 2 cents.

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Lawquacious
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Re: Are these reasonable?

Postby Lawquacious » Mon Mar 07, 2011 1:20 am

JusticeHarlan wrote:
Lawquacious wrote:
JusticeHarlan wrote:
alexonfyre wrote:Atlanta:
GSU
UGA

Why not Emory? Last cycle they took a 166/2.96, and so far this cycle they took a 166/3.05. Worth an app, I'd say.



With those schollys I think those people are URMs who didn't post that info. It's also possible the real numbers aren't used. I remember when I was applying to schools I saw a profile that had a non-URM getting into Berkeley with a 166/3.5. It got my hopes up enough to apply, but looking back I think it was a waste of an app. Even if the two profiles you found are real numbers and non-URM (with considerable schollys no less), I think they would be a rare exception. I would be surprised to see a sub-3.0/166 non-URM get into Emory, nevermind get a nice scholly. I think there's a reason another TLS poster recently referred to Emory's '167 wall of death,' and that is probably a reference that assumes a reasonably strong GPA. At least at peer schools such as MN, sub 3.0/166 non-URM has basically no shot from what I can tell, but admittedly I don't know all the nuances for each school's adcomm approach.

Definitely true about not trusting LSN with total confidence, but I'm not sure I see a 'wall of death' at 167. 166 seems to be the magic number this year, at least for 3.0+ GPAs, and both this year and last the data we do have does seems to say they seemed at least somewhat willing to dip below their 25th percentile GPA.

I'm not an Emory troll or anything, I have no strong feelings one way or another about the school. I'm not suggesting OP should necessarily go to Emory, especially at sticker. But if OP is open to working in Atlanta, I don't see why he shouldn't at least apply. Splitters are pretty unpredictable, so firing another shot in the dark can only increase the odds of hitting something. And if he does get in, it either gives him another option for a school (assuming the finance issues work out), or at least a pretty solid chip for scholarship negotiations.

Just my 2 cents.


+1

Yeah, I agree it's probably worth a shot. I think if I hadn't applied to some of the reaches (and even extreme reaches) I did then I would have wondered what might have happened. I think it's also true that splitters are more unpredictable than most, so especially if OP picks some splitter-friendly schools he might end up having some nice options.

I can see why I came off a bit harsh, especially because really my only two choices were "Out" or "Maybe"-- OP should get into a number of the schools he listed and may well at least get WLs at some of the higher-ranked schools (which usually turn into 'out' as far as I know, but not always).

I was somewhat disappointed with my cycle last year, so I suppose I tend to encourage people not to have unrealistic expectations, but there really is a lot of uncertainty involved in the process and personal factors can play a role in addition to numbers.

I think OP probably should apply to all the CA schools he listed- in fact, probably to all the schools on the list that he really desires, because I think there is some shot even if unlikely. I just think there is a good chance that OP won't land anything above T35 or so, and that an expectation otherwise could be a set up for frustration.

Good luck OP- I definitely didn't want to discourage you, and hopefully am wrong on my somewhat pessimistic assessment.

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alexonfyre
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Re: Are these reasonable?

Postby alexonfyre » Mon Mar 07, 2011 2:01 pm

Emory is a bit of a special case for me. When I lived in Atlanta, I worked with some judges and people in the Fulton County court system and learned that Emory's reputation isn't nearly as great as they would have you believe. The education is certainly top-notch, however they have a reputation for being presumptuous and overconfident. One of the judges had a de facto ban in his office for Emory clerks because of a couple bad experiences. Essentially, if you consider the fact that Emory is a nationally competitive law school in a tremendous legal market with very little competition, then why is it that GSU's placement numbers come close to Emory's, particularly in clerkships? And UGA should be about even, but is actually ahead? 42% of Emory grads get jobs out of state, and it isn't because there aren't good jobs to be had in Atlanta.

EDIT: Also, I have decided to retake the LSAT in June and to put serious study time in it this time, so hopefully that LSAT score will go from borderline to solid in a couple of months.

Slevin Kelevra 2011
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Re: Are these reasonable?

Postby Slevin Kelevra 2011 » Mon Mar 07, 2011 2:19 pm

Boston:
BU - WL
BC - WL

New York:
Fordham - In
Cardozo - In w/ $

DC:
George Washington - In
American** - In

Atlanta:
Emory - In
GSU - In w/ $
UGA - In w/ $

New Orleans:
Tulane** In w/ $
LSU** In w/ $

Chicago:
Kent - In w/ $
UIUC (ED)*- In w/ $
Loyola- In w/ $

California:
UC-Davis*- In w/ $
UC-Hastings*- In w/ $
UC-Irvine***- In w/ $

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northwood
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Re: Are these reasonable?

Postby northwood » Mon Mar 07, 2011 3:37 pm

Slevin Kelevra 2011 wrote:Boston:
BU - WL
BC - WL

New York:
Fordham - In
Cardozo - In w/ $

DC:
George Washington - In
American** - In

Atlanta:
Emory - In
GSU - In w/ $
UGA - In w/ $

New Orleans:
Tulane** In w/ $
LSU** In w/ $

Chicago:
Kent - In w/ $
UIUC (ED)*- In w/ $
Loyola- In w/ $

California:
UC-Davis*- In w/ $
UC-Hastings*- In w/ $
UC-Irvine***- In w/ $


You do realize that you are committed to UIUC since you applied ED, right? even if they dont negotiate with you and another school ups their offer to something better. You should let the other schools know of your ED acceptance asap- and withdraw.

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Ty Webb
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Re: Are these reasonable?

Postby Ty Webb » Mon Mar 07, 2011 3:42 pm

alexonfyre wrote:So I am a fairly severe splitter: 2.8/166 (That may be 2.9, based on LSAC, but I don't think it really matters.)
I am looking to apply to some good regional schools in areas I would like to work in, price isn't a factor since I am lucky enough to have been taken care of by family, so my debt burden will be very low, if any, anywhere I go. Important factors to me are location, global education (study abroad, law and culture courses, not necessarily international law though) and, obviously, overall quality of education. My softs are average, student government, successful mock trial, a couple years of work experience, upward grade trend and leadership demonstrated throughout, some community service which was important to me, but nothing that admissions will think is special.
I already have a thread about retaking the LSAT, and the general feeling is that I should, but I will list the schools I am considering with the numbers above, and update if/when I do retake, they are listed geographically to illustrate the regions I am interested in:

Boston:
BU
BC

New York:
Fordham*
Cardozo

DC:
George Washington
American**

Atlanta:
GSU
UGA

New Orleans:
Tulane**
LSU**

Chicago:
Kent
UIUC (ED)*
Loyola

California:
UC-Davis*
UC-Hastings*
UC-Irvine***

(*-Reach school, top choice)
(**-Safety, school I have a high chance of getting into by numbers or other factors)
(***-UCI is my number 1 choice by far, but despite a history of risk-taking and building new institutions and cultures [part of the reason my GPA was so low] I just don't see ever making it in. Still applying though.)

Thanks in advance for any input!


Tulane is not a safety school for you.

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JusticeHarlan
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Re: Are these reasonable?

Postby JusticeHarlan » Mon Mar 07, 2011 3:52 pm

northwood wrote:
Slevin Kelevra 2011 wrote: List of school/results


You do realize that you are committed to UIUC since you applied ED, right? even if they dont negotiate with you and another school ups their offer to something better. You should let the other schools know of your ED acceptance asap- and withdraw.


I believe he was predicting OP's cycle, not describing his own.




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