Michigan (Darrow) vs. HLS

[CryingMonkey]

The data we would need to resolve the argument are statistics about where Darrow scholars tend to graduate in terms of class rank - as well as whether having "Darrow" on their resume helps at all at OCI (I'd imagine not, but who knows). Bruce is credited in that a trend doesn't mean an individual can rely on that; in general, people with higher LSATs and higher GPAs tend to do better than those with lower, but that doesn't mean any of us will. Also, problem with this:

If the OP is going to make a bet: ie bet on getting a great job from HLS with more debt vs. bet on getting a good job from Michigan with minimal debt. He should be aware that one of those bets is much more of a sure thing; and it's the former.

Your odds of getting any particular job are better from Harvard with a similar class rank. But I don't think your chance of getting a great job from Harvard is better than your chance of getting a good job from Michigan; you aren't more likely to get V10 from Harvard than you are to get V250 from Mich, for example, or more likely to get a SCOTUS clerkship from Harvard than a federal clerkship from Michigan. Harvard definitely gives you better job prospects and you can place lower in the class and still get a good job, but it's not like Michigan is some TTT where you'll be lucky to get a good job.

ETA: As i said earlier, a lot of my comments are devil's advocate kind of stuff or me just putting my thoughts down. I'm personally very much undecided.

[tallboone]

You aren't going to get a SCOTUS clerkship from Harvard. You aren't going to get one from Michigan. There are countless people far smarter, harder-working and better-looking than you. It is OK to dream. But then come back to reality.

I would take the Darrow, every time.

[jd20132013]

.

[drylo]

People are talking about how you won't get a SCOTUS clerkship because it's a low chance and other people are harder working?
Not sure how you go through life with that kind of attitude. If he got into Harvard, he has the potential, period.
if we're talking stats, it's a pretty low chance statistically that you given your background would even have a chance to make this decision. Yet you're here

Sure, you shouldn't take chances recklessly. But the opportunities available from HLS if you really go after them I feel are better than the ones available from UM, and I feel like you're that kind of person.

Nice pep talk, life coach. The fact of the matter is that the pure statistical chances of clerking for SCOTUS are probably 0.5% at Michigan and something like 1.5% at HLS. (I am guessing because I honestly don't care to look it up--but those numbers are probably pretty close.)

[jd20132013]

s

[almightypush]

Only read the first page...

People are talking about how you won't get a SCOTUS clerkship because it's a low chance and other people are harder working?
Not sure how you go through life with that kind of attitude. If he got into Harvard, he has the potential, period.
if we're talking stats, it's a pretty low chance statistically that you given your background would even have a chance to make this decision. Yet you're here

Sure, you shouldn't take chances recklessly. But the opportunities available from HLS if you really go after them I feel are better than the ones available from UM, and I feel like you're that kind of person.


I'm making similar decisions right now and I guess I'm justifying my inherent leaning towards HLS.

What tk said about the BLSA I've heard from other people though(other people on TLS, granted).It's supposedly an incredible network in itself...then you have everyone else at the school who's *not* in the BLSA...

this.

[drylo]

Thanks for the numbers -perhaps you misread, I didn't propose that they were any different.

Yeah... but you downplayed the significance of the low chance by saying that it is statistically improbable that OP could even get into HLS, etc. But he beat those odds, so why not the SCOTUS clerkship odds too!!! Positive thinking!!!

Not to mention the fact that your odds of becoming a SCOTUS clerk are not really significantly better at HLS than Michigan. I mean, look, you can decide to go to HLS because of that 1% better chance of being a SCOTUS clerk, but I think for most people, it really wouldn't be worth a $150-200k gamble

[CryingMonkey]

Thanks for the numbers -perhaps you misread, I didn't propose that they were any different.

Yeah... but you downplayed the significance of the low chance by saying that it is statistically improbable that OP could even get into HLS, etc. But he beat those odds, so why not the SCOTUS clerkship odds too!!! Positive thinking!!!

Not to mention the fact that your odds of becoming a SCOTUS clerk are not really significantly better at HLS than Michigan. I mean, look, you can decide to go to HLS because of that 1% better chance of being a SCOTUS clerk, but I think for most people, it really wouldn't be worth a $150-200k gamble

The numbers - from 2000-2010 Harvard had 101 alumni clerk for the Supreme Court, while Michigan had 13. So, on average, about 1.8% of Harvard graduates in that period went on to clerk for SCOTUS, while about .35% of Michigan graduates clerked for SCOTUS. Drylo's numbers were reasonably accurate.

[run26.2]

Thanks for the numbers -perhaps you misread, I didn't propose that they were any different.

Yeah... but you downplayed the significance of the low chance by saying that it is statistically improbable that OP could even get into HLS, etc. But he beat those odds, so why not the SCOTUS clerkship odds too!!! Positive thinking!!!

Not to mention the fact that your odds of becoming a SCOTUS clerk are not really significantly better at HLS than Michigan. I mean, look, you can decide to go to HLS because of that 1% better chance of being a SCOTUS clerk, but I think for most people, it really wouldn't be worth a $150-200k gamble

The numbers - from 2000-2010 Harvard had 101 alumni clerk for the Supreme Court, while Michigan had 13. So, on average, about 1.8% of Harvard graduates in that period went on to clerk for SCOTUS, while about .35% of Michigan graduates clerked for SCOTUS. Drylo's numbers were reasonably accurate.

So even though it is only a 1.5% difference, on average you have a 5x higher likelihood of getting a SCOTUS clerkship out of Harvard than out of Michigan.

[drylo]

Thanks for the numbers -perhaps you misread, I didn't propose that they were any different.

Yeah... but you downplayed the significance of the low chance by saying that it is statistically improbable that OP could even get into HLS, etc. But he beat those odds, so why not the SCOTUS clerkship odds too!!! Positive thinking!!!

Not to mention the fact that your odds of becoming a SCOTUS clerk are not really significantly better at HLS than Michigan. I mean, look, you can decide to go to HLS because of that 1% better chance of being a SCOTUS clerk, but I think for most people, it really wouldn't be worth a $150-200k gamble

The numbers - from 2000-2010 Harvard had 101 alumni clerk for the Supreme Court, while Michigan had 13. So, on average, about 1.8% of Harvard graduates in that period went on to clerk for SCOTUS, while about .35% of Michigan graduates clerked for SCOTUS. Drylo's numbers were reasonably accurate.

So even though it is only a 1.5% difference, on average you have a 5x higher likelihood of getting a SCOTUS clerkship out of Harvard than out of Michigan.

5 x 0 = 0

[run26.2]

5 x 0 = 0

In my book, 1.8 > 0. Just a little less than 1/50, assuming CryingMonkey's stats are correct.

[drylo]

5 x 0 = 0

In my book, 1.8 > 0. Just a little less than 1/50, assuming CryingMonkey's stats are correct.

Yes. 1.8 > 0. But not by much, considering that everyone at HLS is already superman by your logic.

[run26.2]

5 x 0 = 0

In my book, 1.8 > 0. Just a little less than 1/50, assuming CryingMonkey's stats are correct.

Yes. 1.8 > 0. But not by much, considering that everyone at HLS is already superman by your logic.

1.8% and 0 are fundamentally different in this case. It is not about absolute figures but about how a particular school affects your chances.

I never said or implied everyone at harvard was anything. My point in this post and my earlier post is that if you have any aspiration of being a clerk or on scotus or even "just" a coa clerk, you increase your odds greatly by going to hls. Some people are going to fill those spots an they're far more likely to come from hls (and yale) than from umich.

Said differently, if he goes to umich, his chances of getting something that is fairly unlikely are a lot less likely. Based solely on the numbers above, the odds drop from about 1 in 56 to 1 in 286.

[drylo]

5 x 0 = 0

In my book, 1.8 > 0. Just a little less than 1/50, assuming CryingMonkey's stats are correct.

Yes. 1.8 > 0. But not by much, considering that everyone at HLS is already superman by your logic.

1.8% and 0 are fundamentally different in this case. It is not about absolute figures but about how a particular school affects your chances.

I never said or implied everyone at harvard was anything. My point in this post and my earlier post is that if you have any aspiration of being a clerk or on scotus or even "just" a coa clerk, you increase your odds greatly by going to hls. Some people are going to fill those spots an they're far more likely to come from hls (and yale) than from umich.

Said differently, if he goes to umich, his chances of getting something that is fairly unlikely are a lot less likely. Based solely on the numbers above, the odds drop from about 1 in 56 to 1 in 286.

You're right. And if it is only about relative chances and not about absolute figures, then yes, it appears that HLS gives you 5x as great a chance of being a SCOTUS clerk based on historical data. But in my mind, absolute terms are relevant, considering the numbers that we are talking about. The 5x multiplier would be determinative if Michigan gave you a 20% chance. It would be significant if Michigan gave you a 10% chance. But it is literally meaningless at 0. And the numbers we are talking about are darn close to 0.

[09042014]

Thanks for the numbers -perhaps you misread, I didn't propose that they were any different.

Yeah... but you downplayed the significance of the low chance by saying that it is statistically improbable that OP could even get into HLS, etc. But he beat those odds, so why not the SCOTUS clerkship odds too!!! Positive thinking!!!

Not to mention the fact that your odds of becoming a SCOTUS clerk are not really significantly better at HLS than Michigan. I mean, look, you can decide to go to HLS because of that 1% better chance of being a SCOTUS clerk, but I think for most people, it really wouldn't be worth a $150-200k gamble

The numbers - from 2000-2010 Harvard had 101 alumni clerk for the Supreme Court, while Michigan had 13. So, on average, about 1.8% of Harvard graduates in that period went on to clerk for SCOTUS, while about .35% of Michigan graduates clerked for SCOTUS. Drylo's numbers were reasonably accurate.

So even though it is only a 1.5% difference, on average you have a 5x higher likelihood of getting a SCOTUS clerkship out of Harvard than out of Michigan.

LOL at making the choice based on doing well enough at Harvard to get a feeder clerkship.

[Fresh]

LOL at making the choice based on doing well enough at Harvard to get a feeder clerkship.

This. Luckily I'm not