Is Michigan Worth Sticker?

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Is Michigan Worth Sticker?

Yes
98
80%
No
24
20%
 
Total votes: 122

NonnyMouse
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Re: Is Michigan Worth Sticker?

Postby NonnyMouse » Sun Oct 10, 2010 11:50 pm

bigben wrote:
MrKappus wrote:Yes. A top 10 school is worth sticker.

/thread

No matter how much tuition goes up, and no matter how much hiring declines, A TOP TEN SCHOOL IS WORTH STICKER. FOREVER AND EVER, AMEN.


This is true. People act like if you don't get a job right away somehow your investment is forever ruined. Just not true. End thread.

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JG Hall
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Re: Is Michigan Worth Sticker?

Postby JG Hall » Sun Oct 10, 2010 11:52 pm

Isn't the average high in Ann Arbor under 32F in January?

Then no.

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IAFG
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Re: Is Michigan Worth Sticker?

Postby IAFG » Sun Oct 10, 2010 11:58 pm

NonnyMouse wrote:
bigben wrote:
MrKappus wrote:Yes. A top 10 school is worth sticker.

/thread

No matter how much tuition goes up, and no matter how much hiring declines, A TOP TEN SCHOOL IS WORTH STICKER. FOREVER AND EVER, AMEN.


This is true. People act like if you don't get a job right away somehow your investment is forever ruined. Just not true. End thread.

real estate is always a safe investment since housing prices only ever go up

bigben
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Re: Is Michigan Worth Sticker?

Postby bigben » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:01 am

NonnyMouse wrote:
bigben wrote:
MrKappus wrote:Yes. A top 10 school is worth sticker.

/thread

No matter how much tuition goes up, and no matter how much hiring declines, A TOP TEN SCHOOL IS WORTH STICKER. FOREVER AND EVER, AMEN.


This is true. People act like if you don't get a job right away somehow your investment is forever ruined. Just not true. End thread.

Yep. I mean UMich's tuition has increased by 140% since the year 2000, but so what? That is just a number, numbers don't phase me man.

Biglaw hiring is down by 30-40% since 2007 but who cares? Let it go down to zero. When I start collecting social security at age 72, I can use that to pay off my loans from law school.

But honestly, I'm sure even if I miss biglaw at first I could get in after a few years if I keep trying. Perseverance you know. Also a JD is a path to riches anyway and biglaw doesn't even matter right, I will become a superstar plaintiff's attorney, or I will get jobs in other industries that I would never have been able to get without that sweet JD, *bursts out laughing* oh man guys I couldn't keep a straight face anymore.

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rayiner
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Re: Is Michigan Worth Sticker?

Postby rayiner » Mon Oct 11, 2010 1:00 am

BruceWayne wrote:
We're talking about last year's OCI, not this year's. Consensus seems to be that this year is slightly better, but mostly at the top firms.

Also... your anecdotal information isn't inconsistent with the 40-50% figures being bandied about. People above median might get at least some callbacks, but with a callback -> offer ratio of 50% or below at many firms, that doesn't mean they'll get jobs. A number of top-half people will strike out and a number of bottom half people will luck into something -> 50% isn't a bad guess at all.

I'm wondering if you realize you just honed in on the fact that his comment was anecdote, but then proceeded to end with the bolded.


Of course. I wasn't criticizing his use of anecdotal evidence here. We have very limited concrete data (specifically from CLS, NYU, Cornell, and Duke) so we have to use anecdotal evidence to draw some rough conclusions about how OCI is going in the recession. I was simply pointing out that his anecdotes were not inconsistent with the figures I put forth.

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MrKappus
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Re: Is Michigan Worth Sticker?

Postby MrKappus » Mon Oct 11, 2010 2:17 am

bigben wrote:Yep. I mean UMich's tuition has increased by 140% since the year 2000, but so what? That is just a number, numbers don't phase me man.

Biglaw hiring is down by 30-40% since 2007 but who cares? Let it go down to zero. When I start collecting social security at age 72, I can use that to pay off my loans from law school.

But honestly, I'm sure even if I miss biglaw at first I could get in after a few years if I keep trying. Perseverance you know. Also a JD is a path to riches anyway and biglaw doesn't even matter right, I will become a superstar plaintiff's attorney, or I will get jobs in other industries that I would never have been able to get without that sweet JD, *bursts out laughing* oh man guys I couldn't keep a straight face anymore.


Attempt at being clever fail. The fact is, you're still graduating w/ a degree from one of the top 10 law schools in the country. The vast majority of UMich grads will be just fine, which means the expected value of a UMich education is high, which means it's worth sticker. End thread and, if we're lucky, your attempts at wit.

bigben
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Re: Is Michigan Worth Sticker?

Postby bigben » Mon Oct 11, 2010 6:32 pm

MrKappus wrote:Attempt at being clever fail. The fact is, you're still graduating w/ a degree from one of the top 10 law schools in the country. The vast majority of UMich grads will be just fine, which means the expected value of a UMich education is high, which means it's worth sticker. End thread and, if we're lucky, your attempts at wit.

Too many fallacies to bother.

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MrKappus
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Re: Is Michigan Worth Sticker?

Postby MrKappus » Mon Oct 11, 2010 7:14 pm

bigben wrote:
MrKappus wrote:Attempt at being clever fail. The fact is, you're still graduating w/ a degree from one of the top 10 law schools in the country. The vast majority of UMich grads will be just fine, which means the expected value of a UMich education is high, which means it's worth sticker. End thread and, if we're lucky, your attempts at wit.

Too many fallacies to bother.


It's OK that you don't understand expected value. I'm not here to judge.

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blink
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Re: Is Michigan Worth Sticker?

Postby blink » Mon Oct 11, 2010 7:21 pm

If you go, you'll have to change your name to Benedict Arnold.

bigben
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Re: Is Michigan Worth Sticker?

Postby bigben » Mon Oct 11, 2010 10:50 pm

MrKappus wrote:
bigben wrote:
MrKappus wrote:Attempt at being clever fail. The fact is, you're still graduating w/ a degree from one of the top 10 law schools in the country. The vast majority of UMich grads will be just fine, which means the expected value of a UMich education is high, which means it's worth sticker. End thread and, if we're lucky, your attempts at wit.

Too many fallacies to bother.


It's OK that you don't understand expected value. I'm not here to judge.

Hey man, not everyone is choosing between a life as a barista and the law school roulette wheel. I'm not here to judge though.

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BruceWayne
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Re: Is Michigan Worth Sticker?

Postby BruceWayne » Mon Oct 11, 2010 11:26 pm

rayiner wrote:
BruceWayne wrote:
We're talking about last year's OCI, not this year's. Consensus seems to be that this year is slightly better, but mostly at the top firms.

Also... your anecdotal information isn't inconsistent with the 40-50% figures being bandied about. People above median might get at least some callbacks, but with a callback -> offer ratio of 50% or below at many firms, that doesn't mean they'll get jobs. A number of top-half people will strike out and a number of bottom half people will luck into something -> 50% isn't a bad guess at all.

I'm wondering if you realize you just honed in on the fact that his comment was anecdote, but then proceeded to end with the bolded.


Of course. I wasn't criticizing his use of anecdotal evidence here. We have very limited concrete data (specifically from CLS, NYU, Cornell, and Duke) so we have to use anecdotal evidence to draw some rough conclusions about how OCI is going in the recession. I was simply pointing out that his anecdotes were not inconsistent with the figures I put forth.


Can someone please post links to this data that everyone keeps quoting? I've seen tons of posts about how it exists and is "definitely right' but I've never seen even one link to any of it, and it's not any of the respective schools websites.

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rayiner
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Re: Is Michigan Worth Sticker?

Postby rayiner » Mon Oct 11, 2010 11:41 pm

The Cornell data is public: --LinkRemoved--

The CCN, NYU, and Duke data have been passed around.

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BruceWayne
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Re: Is Michigan Worth Sticker?

Postby BruceWayne » Tue Oct 12, 2010 10:28 am

rayiner wrote:The Cornell data is public: --LinkRemoved--

The CCN, NYU, and Duke data have been passed around.


Cornell is rather brave. Not to piss on Cornell, but considering that their placement has been the worst of the entire top 14 by a considerable margin for some time, this bodes rather well for the other top 14 schools. I honestly would have thought Cornell would have been worse than this.

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rayiner
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Re: Is Michigan Worth Sticker?

Postby rayiner » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:00 pm

BruceWayne wrote:
rayiner wrote:The Cornell data is public: --LinkRemoved--

The CCN, NYU, and Duke data have been passed around.


Cornell is rather brave. Not to piss on Cornell, but considering that their placement has been the worst of the entire top 14 by a considerable margin for some time, this bodes rather well for the other top 14 schools. I honestly would have thought Cornell would have been worse than this.


Cornell's placement is not at all the worst of the T14. It's proximity to New York actually puts it in pretty good shape as far as its rank goes, ITE. I wouldn't be surprised if it outperformed Michigan, NU, and Berkeley in 2011.

V100 2L SA placement (2006) wrote:4 Columbia 80.2%
3 Harvard 74.1%
6 Chicago 71.4%
1 Yale 68.8%
2 Stanford 65.9%
4 NYU 61.2%
11 Duke 55.8%
12 Northwestern 53.1%
7 Penn 49.4%
13 Cornell 43.0%
8 Virginia 41.4%
8 Michigan 41.3%
14 Georgetown 34.4%
16 Texas 28.7%

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MrKappus
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Re: Is Michigan Worth Sticker?

Postby MrKappus » Tue Oct 12, 2010 4:53 pm

bigben wrote:
MrKappus wrote:
bigben wrote:
MrKappus wrote:Attempt at being clever fail. The fact is, you're still graduating w/ a degree from one of the top 10 law schools in the country. The vast majority of UMich grads will be just fine, which means the expected value of a UMich education is high, which means it's worth sticker. End thread and, if we're lucky, your attempts at wit.

Too many fallacies to bother.


It's OK that you don't understand expected value. I'm not here to judge.

Hey man, not everyone is choosing between a life as a barista and the law school roulette wheel. I'm not here to judge though.


I don't get it. I'm a 2L. I'm not choosing anything right now. My expected value idea is reasonably straightforward. Assume bimodal salary distribution: 50% get biglaw ($160k), 40% get shit law ($40k), and 10% are unemployed ($0). EV(salary) = $96k. EV(debt) is (1)($200k). If a prospective UMich grad has prospects worth more than the PV($96k/year [w/ raises] x 30 years) - present value of 30 year loan repayment schedule for $200k, then he/she should take it. But UMich does appear to be worth sticker. Your unfunny snark's unneeded.

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BruceWayne
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Re: Is Michigan Worth Sticker?

Postby BruceWayne » Tue Oct 12, 2010 7:10 pm

rayiner wrote:
BruceWayne wrote:
rayiner wrote:The Cornell data is public: --LinkRemoved--

The CCN, NYU, and Duke data have been passed around.


Cornell is rather brave. Not to piss on Cornell, but considering that their placement has been the worst of the entire top 14 by a considerable margin for some time, this bodes rather well for the other top 14 schools. I honestly would have thought Cornell would have been worse than this.


Cornell's placement is not at all the worst of the T14. It's proximity to New York actually puts it in pretty good shape as far as its rank goes, ITE. I wouldn't be surprised if it outperformed Michigan, NU, and Berkeley in 2011.

V100 2L SA placement (2006) wrote:4 Columbia 80.2%
3 Harvard 74.1%
6 Chicago 71.4%
1 Yale 68.8%
2 Stanford 65.9%
4 NYU 61.2%
11 Duke 55.8%
12 Northwestern 53.1%
7 Penn 49.4%
13 Cornell 43.0%
8 Virginia 41.4%
8 Michigan 41.3%
14 Georgetown 34.4%
16 Texas 28.7%


I don't look at placement exclusively in the New York market (or any single market for that matter). I'm talking about NY, DC, LA, SF, Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Dallas etc. In addition I'm factoring in clerkships ; Cornell is noticeably behind the other schools in clerkship placement and it's non NYC placement is essentially the worst in the top 14. For someone who doesn't want to live in NYC, Cornell is the worst top 14 to attend.

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IAFG
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Re: Is Michigan Worth Sticker?

Postby IAFG » Tue Oct 12, 2010 7:19 pm

BruceWayne wrote:I don't look at placement exclusively in the New York market (or any single market for that matter). I'm talking about NY, DC, LA, SF, Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Dallas etc. In addition I'm factoring in clerkships ; Cornell is noticeably behind the other schools in clerkship placement and it's non NYC placement is essentially the worst in the top 14. For someone who doesn't want to live in NYC, Cornell is the worst top 14 to attend.

lol @ your delusions about there being jobsoutside of NYC

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BruceWayne
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Re: Is Michigan Worth Sticker?

Postby BruceWayne » Tue Oct 12, 2010 8:01 pm

IAFG wrote:
BruceWayne wrote:I don't look at placement exclusively in the New York market (or any single market for that matter). I'm talking about NY, DC, LA, SF, Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Dallas etc. In addition I'm factoring in clerkships ; Cornell is noticeably behind the other schools in clerkship placement and it's non NYC placement is essentially the worst in the top 14. For someone who doesn't want to live in NYC, Cornell is the worst top 14 to attend.

lol @ your delusions about there being jobsoutside of NYC


I know; the only city in the United States (the world?) that hires law students or lawyers is NYC. Any idea when all those people working at Vinson and Elkins Houston/Dallas this past summer will figure out that it was just a practical joke? I wonder why all of these 2L's I know are telling me that they have job offers in D.C? I guess their just being facetious.

xyzzzzzzzz
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Re: Is Michigan Worth Sticker?

Postby xyzzzzzzzz » Tue Oct 12, 2010 8:04 pm

is anything worth sticker?

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rayiner
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Re: Is Michigan Worth Sticker?

Postby rayiner » Tue Oct 12, 2010 8:11 pm

BruceWayne wrote:
rayiner wrote:
BruceWayne wrote:
rayiner wrote:The Cornell data is public: --LinkRemoved--

The CCN, NYU, and Duke data have been passed around.


Cornell is rather brave. Not to piss on Cornell, but considering that their placement has been the worst of the entire top 14 by a considerable margin for some time, this bodes rather well for the other top 14 schools. I honestly would have thought Cornell would have been worse than this.


Cornell's placement is not at all the worst of the T14. It's proximity to New York actually puts it in pretty good shape as far as its rank goes, ITE. I wouldn't be surprised if it outperformed Michigan, NU, and Berkeley in 2011.

V100 2L SA placement (2006) wrote:4 Columbia 80.2%
3 Harvard 74.1%
6 Chicago 71.4%
1 Yale 68.8%
2 Stanford 65.9%
4 NYU 61.2%
11 Duke 55.8%
12 Northwestern 53.1%
7 Penn 49.4%
13 Cornell 43.0%
8 Virginia 41.4%
8 Michigan 41.3%
14 Georgetown 34.4%
16 Texas 28.7%


I don't look at placement exclusively in the New York market (or any single market for that matter). I'm talking about NY, DC, LA, SF, Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Dallas etc. In addition I'm factoring in clerkships ; Cornell is noticeably behind the other schools in clerkship placement and it's non NYC placement is essentially the worst in the top 14. For someone who doesn't want to live in NYC, Cornell is the worst top 14 to attend.


BruceWayne wrote:Cornell, but considering that their placement has been the worst of the entire top 14 by a considerable margin for some time


I don't see where you qualify "placement" as referring to non-NYC placement... Why do people keep using a definition of "placement" that isn't equal to "percentage of people placed into biglaw"?

Now, about the above data.

1) It's not exclusively in the NYC market. The top of Vault is pretty NYC centric (W&C below Weil, LOL) but V100 covers most of the big firms in the major markets.

Eg, Atlanta has 8 AmLaw 250 firms employing 3,653 lawyers (firm-wide). Of those the top 4, employing 70% of the total, are Vault-ranked.

Same is true for Boston: 6 of the biggest 7. Chicago (all of the biggest 10). LA (6 of the biggest 8). Etc.

2) It is for 2L summer associates, so clerkships are irrelevant to the measure. Clerkship hiring happens after 2L OCI, and most clerks do a 2L SA.
Last edited by rayiner on Tue Oct 12, 2010 8:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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rayiner
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Re: Is Michigan Worth Sticker?

Postby rayiner » Tue Oct 12, 2010 8:13 pm

BruceWayne wrote:
IAFG wrote:
BruceWayne wrote:I don't look at placement exclusively in the New York market (or any single market for that matter). I'm talking about NY, DC, LA, SF, Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Dallas etc. In addition I'm factoring in clerkships ; Cornell is noticeably behind the other schools in clerkship placement and it's non NYC placement is essentially the worst in the top 14. For someone who doesn't want to live in NYC, Cornell is the worst top 14 to attend.

lol @ your delusions about there being jobsoutside of NYC


I know; the only city in the United States (the world?) that hires law students or lawyers is NYC. Any idea when all those people working at Vinson and Elkins Houston/Dallas this past summer will figure out that it was just a practical joke? I wonder why all of these 2L's I know are telling me that they have job offers in D.C? I guess their just being facetious.



V&E is V100. So is Fulbright and Baker Botts.

bigben
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Re: Is Michigan Worth Sticker?

Postby bigben » Wed Oct 13, 2010 1:32 am

MrKappus wrote:I don't get it. I'm a 2L. I'm not choosing anything right now. My expected value idea is reasonably straightforward. Assume bimodal salary distribution: 50% get biglaw ($160k), 40% get shit law ($40k), and 10% are unemployed ($0). EV(salary) = $96k. EV(debt) is (1)($200k). If a prospective UMich grad has prospects worth more than the PV($96k/year [w/ raises] x 30 years) - present value of 30 year loan repayment schedule for $200k, then he/she should take it. But UMich does appear to be worth sticker. Your unfunny snark's unneeded.

It is not inherently "worth sticker." Only when you factor in things like opportunity costs and risk tolerance can you decide whether an investment is worthwhile.

For fun, I ran the numbers on 96k over 30 yrs with a compounding 3% annual raise, alongside 25 year repayment of 200k at 7.8% weighted average, using a 5% discount rate. With these numbers, you break even taking a 68k job with the same growth rate instead of going to law school. With 2% compounding raises and a 7% discount rate, the breaking point is 64.5k.

Of course, this leaves out many many things, most significantly risk. Many would say that the swing between 160k, 40k, and 0 borders on the absurd as far as major life decisions go. But different people will have different risk tolerances, of course.

A final consideration I'll raise is the value of your free time. What is the opportunity cost of choosing to work 60-70 hour weeks for life as a lawyer instead of 40 or 50 doing something else? Different people will answer this very differently, of course.

So, this is why I made fun of your proclamation that ZOMG TOP TEN DUDE OMFG ALWAYS WORTH STICKER DUH TOP TEN TOP TEN!!!!11

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MrKappus
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Re: Is Michigan Worth Sticker?

Postby MrKappus » Wed Oct 13, 2010 2:57 am

bigben wrote:
MrKappus wrote:I don't get it. I'm a 2L. I'm not choosing anything right now. My expected value idea is reasonably straightforward. Assume bimodal salary distribution: 50% get biglaw ($160k), 40% get shit law ($40k), and 10% are unemployed ($0). EV(salary) = $96k. EV(debt) is (1)($200k). If a prospective UMich grad has prospects worth more than the PV($96k/year [w/ raises] x 30 years) - present value of 30 year loan repayment schedule for $200k, then he/she should take it. But UMich does appear to be worth sticker. Your unfunny snark's unneeded.

It is not inherently "worth sticker." Only when you factor in things like opportunity costs and risk tolerance can you decide whether an investment is worthwhile.

For fun, I ran the numbers on 96k over 30 yrs with a compounding 3% annual raise, alongside 25 year repayment of 200k at 7.8% weighted average, using a 5% discount rate. With these numbers, you break even taking a 68k job with the same growth rate instead of going to law school. With 2% compounding raises and a 7% discount rate, the breaking point is 64.5k.

Of course, this leaves out many many things, most significantly risk. Many would say that the swing between 160k, 40k, and 0 borders on the absurd as far as major life decisions go. But different people will have different risk tolerances, of course.

A final consideration I'll raise is the value of your free time. What is the opportunity cost of choosing to work 60-70 hour weeks for life as a lawyer instead of 40 or 50 doing something else? Different people will answer this very differently, of course.

So, this is why I made fun of your proclamation that ZOMG TOP TEN DUDE OMFG ALWAYS WORTH STICKER DUH TOP TEN TOP TEN!!!!11


(1) lol at yearly rises slightly higher than inflation;
(2) few people take the full 25 years to repay;
(3) my 40% at $40k/10% at $0k for Mich grads wasn't just conservative; it was absurd...I'm not a t14er but I can't imagine that's close to accurate; and
(4) tell me all about these $68k/yr jobs that college grads can snap up...I'm intrigued.

But I appreciate your input. Not your snark, which I just didn't think was that funny...but input? Most assuredly.




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