vanwinkle wrote:agentzer0 wrote:This is flawed:vanwinkle wrote:agentzer0 wrote:Since law school is 3 years
You do have to find something to do for your summers though, since 1) a lack of summer employment is a huge glaring mistake on your resume and 2) it's during the summer employments that you get your best chance to network and make connections for finding work once you graduate.
I'm assuming a general economic recovery. If that recovery happens, firms/employers will be increasing hiring numbers. As this happens there will be more post-graduate positions available than there were summer-gigs the previous years... If employers are increasing hiring numbers across the board (my assumption) and are hiring more graduates than there were summer-gigs for those graduates while they were in school they cannot penalize everyone who didn't do something over the summer, the math wouldn't work.
I love how you call my statement flawed and then attempt to use several flawed assumptions to disprove it.
Even if hiring does pick up, there have been more than 20,000 lawyers laid off in the last year, and many of those are attempting to grab up whatever jobs they can. Until those lawyers get reabsorbed there's going to continue to be a surplus of experienced lawyers available to soak up jobs as they open up. A recovery is a long-term thing and it is incredibly naive to assume that it will happen so rapidly that the job market will spontaneously and dramatically improve from this year to the next when many of you are 1Ls.
You're also ignoring the number of deferred associates hired out of last summer's graduating class. Those people have jobs lined up, but their start date was deferred to this summer or even in some cases next summer; that means that even if an economic recovery occurs and hiring can pick up again, those employers have a supply of new associates coming in already without having to hire from this summer's graduating class at all. The only way for this to not be an issue is if law firms uniformly start needing both all the associates they deferred last year and the folks graduating this summer and looking for work. That would essentially have us going from zero hiring to double the historical amount of hiring in a single year, and that's more than just a recovery, that's a recovery plus unprecedented growth in the legal market all within the span of a single year. This is in no way realistic at all.
You're right, if there was more hiring than available lawyers the math wouldn't work. However, it will be years before the math makes things an employee's market once more, and in the meantime law firms and public service employers alike are free to discriminate against those who don't have summer employment on their resume.
Lots of good stuff in here, you're absolutely right about the back-log, etc. etc tl;dr the legal job market is a rough environment right now and will be for some time.
But so is the non-legal job market; in fact, it's probably worse. So, assuming that that the legal log-jam eventually does clear up, if you want a JD why not get it now when you're probably not giving up much to go to school?
As far as your time scale for an employment recovery... the last 60 years of employment data suggest that 3 years seems like a very reasonable estimate:
go to http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyO ... NS14000000
and graph unemployment from 1948 through today