Top 1-14 US News Predictions Forum

[bees]

UM is on a serious downward trend, I think it will either fall into the 10 block, or if the 10 block splits, it will go

NU
Mich
UVA
Duke

I'm not sure why NU would jump to the top of that group. Look, I'm not usually one to troll for UVA solely because I will be going there, but you can't ignore the .5 median GPA jump from the last class. If one school breaks out of that l#10 log jam, UVA is much more likely.

People on here have been saying .05, is it really .5?

I definitely moved it out one decimal place too few. They jumped from 3.8 to 3.85. That's still pretty significant. My post about Texas should have been .09 as opposed to .9 as well.

Got it. If a median GPA increase of 3.8 to 3.85 moves UVA out of a tie for 10th and into a tie for 8th (where a lot of people on here have it)...numbers whoring FTW.

[HJO]

If UVA does move up in the rankings will we see more T14 schools work the splitter angle?

[PDaddy]

If UVA does move up in the rankings will we see more T14 schools work the splitter angle?

I thought most of them were already doing that anyways (to varying degrees). Isn't that the saving grace in schools getting to report "medians" instead of "averages"?

[Hopefullawstudent]

If UVA does move up in the rankings will we see more T14 schools work the splitter angle?

I thought most of them were already doing that anyways (to varying degrees). Isn't that the saving grace in schools getting to report "medians" instead of "averages"?

Yes. That's one of the biggest reasons (among many other reasons) why the USNWR's methodology is a bunch of horse shit. The fact that a 171 LSAT and a 2.8 GPA could even get you considered at a top 10 (Northwestern I am looking at YOU) is close to an ethical violation barring some sort of real, meaningful reason why that person dropped the ball on probably the most important aspect of college: grades, learning, succeeding academically.

The proper way to weight LSAT and GPA would be to use a combination of MEAN and median scores where the MEAN is weighted at least as much as the MEDIAN score. Changing this formula would shake things up quite a bit. Schools with weak lower-bounds would pay big time for admitting students with lackluster credentials in the GPA or LSAT category. Also, the incentives schools have for admitting uber-splitters would diminish so that every school started behaving more like the UCs: Grades AND LSATs matter.

The ONLY people benefiting from the UNSWR's methodology are splitters. Many others are hurt by it.

[flyingpanda]

Yes. That's one of the biggest reasons (among many other reasons) why the USNWR's methodology is a bunch of horse shit. The fact that a 171 LSAT and a 2.8 GPA could even get you considered at a top 10 (Northwestern I am looking at YOU) is close to an ethical violation barring some sort of real, meaningful reason why that person dropped the ball on the most important aspect of college: grades, learning, succeeding academically.

[Kronk]

Who cares who they accept and what they did in undergrad? If they can do well in law school academically and can pass the bar, all of that should be moot (just like getting a 25 on the ACT would be moot if someone got a 4.0 during undergrad).

[SHARK WEEK!]

Who cares who they accept and what they did in undergrad? If they can do well in law school academically and can pass the bar, all of that should be moot (just like getting a 25 on the ACT would be moot if someone got a 4.0 during undergrad).

I don't know how to insert images into these messages, but just imagine that picture of the giant pear right here saying: "LOL".

Thanks by the way, (wipes tear from eye) I haven't laughed like that in a while.

[Kronk]

Who cares who they accept and what they did in undergrad? If they can do well in law school academically and can pass the bar, all of that should be moot (just like getting a 25 on the ACT would be moot if someone got a 4.0 during undergrad).

I don't know how to insert images into these messages, but just imagine that picture of the giant pear right here saying: "LOL".

Thanks by the way, (wipes tear from eye) I haven't laughed like that in a while.

A.) Let the record note you must have a terrible sense of humor.

B.) My point was that it's not our business to tell schools who to accept. As long as Northwestern is holding their current students to high standards and they are succeeding in law school, there's no reason to think it's a borderline felony for Northwestern to admit them. You disagree?

C.) Images aren't that hard. Do some legwork, brotato.

[prezidentv8]

If UVA does move up in the rankings will we see more T14 schools work the splitter angle?

I thought most of them were already doing that anyways (to varying degrees). Isn't that the saving grace in schools getting to report "medians" instead of "averages"?

Yes. That's one of the biggest reasons (among many other reasons) why the USNWR's methodology is a bunch of horse shit. The fact that a 171 LSAT and a 2.8 GPA could even get you considered at a top 10 (Northwestern I am looking at YOU) is close to an ethical violation barring some sort of real, meaningful reason why that person dropped the ball on probably the most important aspect of college: grades, learning, succeeding academically.

The proper way to weight LSAT and GPA would be to use a combination of MEAN and median scores where the MEAN is weighted at least as much as the MEDIAN score. Changing this formula would shake things up quite a bit. Schools with weak lower-bounds would pay big time for admitting students with lackluster credentials in the GPA or LSAT category. Also, the incentives schools have for admitting uber-splitters would diminish so that every school started behaving more like the UCs: Grades AND LSATs matter.

The ONLY people benefiting from the UNSWR's methodology are splitters. Many others are hurt by it.

As much as the methodology is terrible and the rankings are overcredited, this is far too one-dimensional of a criticism, and your suggestions are pretty problematic themselves. I would get into it but I don't feel like it right now. Just saying.

[woeisme]

I think people are pissed off about UVa or Penn-type admissions whoring because they believe these schools end up with inflated rankings that may overstate their employment prospects.

My response to this type of thing would be:
1) It's your job to do your due diligence on what goes behind a ranking and to research a particular school's reputation and job prospects
2) UVa's number-whoring isn't locking Cornell out of the T10. These number whores are often just competing with schools that are of similar quality. So what if UVa comes out ahead of Duke an NU by one spot because it managed to bump its GPA median by .05?
3) For those of you that are offended by the feeling that you're being strung along so a school can make itself look more selective, grow a pair. There are several examples in this thread of people who got into far reaches because they got fee waivers. It's your job to know if you're a realistic shot for a school or not.

Also, YPing can usually be countered with a good LOCI. If it isn't, then maybe you're not really being YPed.



The only school whose number whoring I have ever been offended by was WUSTL for its UG admissions. They go way above and beyond what any of these schools do.

The bolded would be very very valid, and I would agree, if it was actually true. If anything UVA and Penn's employment prospects are undersold by their ranking. The US News rankings give the impression that NYU and Boalt have stronger employment prospects than UVA, Michigan, and Penn, when in reality they don't (UVA even has a higher lawyer judge score than Boalt and NYU). If anything the only schools in the top 14 that have an inflated employment ranking based around employment prospects are Boalt and NYU. But it's sort of a lesser of two evils, because unless those two schools were tied with MVP they would be getting undersold. To put them below MVP would be unfair, but putting them above isn't right either (if you are focusing on employment prospects, if you are looking at other things like faculty and expenditures then that makes sense).

Oh, I agree. I was just postulating what the thought process might be: "z0MG UVa IS BUMPING ITS NUMBERZZ ITS GIVING CORNELL THE SHAFT/GOING TO OVERTAKE MICH ONLY BECUZ ITS BUMPING ITZ NUMBERZ"

I think people get pissed about numbers whoring because they think schools use it to distort expectations. That may happen in some cases (I still maintain that WUSTL is the most overranked UG in this country), but in the T14 this is almost never the case.

FWIW I've always been a proponent of the NYU = Penn argument and I would probably choose Penn between the two. I think Boalt gets hit to a certain extent by East Coast bias, but I agree it belongs with MVP. I also think Duke gets undersold on this site. Desert Fox has actually made a really good argument that, ceteris paribus, your employment prospects at NBMVPDN are very similar.

yikes, BLATANT anti-Cornell trolling

[Hopefullawstudent]

I TOLD myself not to post anything in this thread. But dammit I did it anyway. If this thread were even slightly thinking about committing suicide right now, I would tell it, "Look, sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do."

Lemon OUT.

[Kronk]

Eh, I really think that NYU, Boalt, and Michigan get screwed on this website because of their great PI programs. People constantly quote how many Chicago and Columbia grads get jobs at Vault 50 firms and forget that many of the people that chose NYU over Columbia and Chicago picked it because they knew they wanted to do public interest work, and thus never had an intention of working at a Vault 50 firm.

Pretend Chicago places 72% of it's grads into V50 firms and NYU places 62%. I bet you can make up the difference with prestigious PI jobs that Chicago grads.

[los blancos]

yikes, BLATANT anti-Cornell trolling

Sry it's just too much fun.

(My perception is that C is closer to G than DN. But I could be totally wrong because, after all, I am an idiot in general)

[Kohinoor]

If UVA does move up in the rankings will we see more T14 schools work the splitter angle?

I thought most of them were already doing that anyways (to varying degrees). Isn't that the saving grace in schools getting to report "medians" instead of "averages"?

Yes. That's one of the biggest reasons (among many other reasons) why the USNWR's methodology is a bunch of horse shit. The fact that a 171 LSAT and a 2.8 GPA could even get you considered at a top 10 (Northwestern I am looking at YOU) is close to an ethical violation barring some sort of real, meaningful reason why that person dropped the ball on probably the most important aspect of college: grades, learning, succeeding academically.

u mad?

[Kohinoor]

If UVA does move up in the rankings will we see more T14 schools work the splitter angle?

I thought most of them were already doing that anyways (to varying degrees). Isn't that the saving grace in schools getting to report "medians" instead of "averages"?

Yes. That's one of the biggest reasons (among many other reasons) why the USNWR's methodology is a bunch of horse shit. The fact that a 171 LSAT and a 2.8 GPA could even get you considered at a top 10 (Northwestern I am looking at YOU) is close to an ethical violation barring some sort of real, meaningful reason why that person dropped the ball on probably the most important aspect of college: [strike]grades, learning, succeeding academically.[/strike]taking a modified anthro major that grants straight As on any paper where you work in the word 'liminal' thereby freeing up time to get rip-roaringly drunk on Thursdays, Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays

[HJO]

If UVA does move up in the rankings will we see more T14 schools work the splitter angle?

I thought most of them were already doing that anyways (to varying degrees). Isn't that the saving grace in schools getting to report "medians" instead of "averages"?

Yes. That's one of the biggest reasons (among many other reasons) why the USNWR's methodology is a bunch of horse shit. The fact that a 171 LSAT and a 2.8 GPA could even get you considered at a top 10 (Northwestern I am looking at YOU) is close to an ethical violation barring some sort of real, meaningful reason why that person dropped the ball on probably the most important aspect of college: [strike]grades, learning, succeeding academically.[/strike]taking a modified anthro major that grants straight As on any paper where you work in the word 'liminal' thereby freeing up time to get rip-roaringly drunk on Thursdays, Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays

^^THIS and taking all your elective classes in the College of Youth and Family Sciences.

[forza]

I love Vanderbilt to death, but how the fuck do some of the people in this thread justify putting Vanderbilt into the T14 over higher ranked schools like UCLA and Texas?

Can you justify this move or are you just pulling shit out of your ass?

[Veyron]

Do you guys DO realize how much lower Chicago’s raw score was than NYU's last year? There is as much a gap in quality (according to US News) between Chi and NYU as there is between Chi and Michigan. What on earth makes you think that they tie or even change places this year? This anti NYU and pro-Chicago trolling must end.

[fortissimo]

Do you guys DO realize how much lower Chichago's raw score was than NYU's last year? What on earth makes you think that they tie or even change places this year?

Yeah...Chicago probably won't be ranked ahead of NYU. I think it will be ranked ahead of Boalt though.

Also, off topic, but Northwestern has the absolute lowest peer reputation score out of all the t-14, and I think the score is lower than some non t-14 schools'. There's no way NU will be ranked above 10.

[vale1rd]

Yale
Harvard
Stanford
Chicago
Columbia
NYU
Cal/Michigan
Penn
Northwestern
Virginia
Duke
Cornell
UCLA

[rayiner]

Other than that, the rankings still prevail. If the T20 received as many accolades, top firms would recruit deeper into the classes of #15-20, and those stats would change. Perception is reality my friend, and the USNWR rankings have created perceptions that are not based on reality (which is that top-25% students from almost any law school are as good as those from HYS or any other T14 school).

In short, your flaw is that you mistake a "cause" of the employment stats (the existence of the T14 to begin with) for an effect.

I can barely understand what you're trying to say, but it sounds like you're the one confusing cause and effect. The top prestigious law schools have been the top prestigious law schools since well before the USNWR rankings existed. Yale has been ranked #1 since the first rankings. Did USNWR create the top schools, or did the top schools dictate the initial USNWR rankings?

This isn't a real chicken-and-egg problem, since it's obvious which came first, and it wasn't the top law schools. The notation "T14" came into existence because there was a pretty bright line dividing those schools from the schools below. It's not like the USNWR anointed these schools top schools, they were there and they were running strong the whole time.

Right. The continual need to create a "top 10" or "top 20" grouping is really giving USNWR more weight than it has if you think about it. The demarcation is at 14 because those just happened to be the really prestigious schools in the major markets. Right after that you have a couple of schools (UCLA/Texas/Vandy) that are top schools in rapidly growing markets, but after that all the schools are really in the shadow of some other. Eg: Emory is a top 20, but it's third to Duke and Vanderbilt in a legal market that's almost certainly not large enough to support having three top law schools, etc.

[Stringer Bell]

I love Vanderbilt to death, but how the fuck do some of the people in this thread justify putting Vanderbilt into the T14 over higher ranked schools like UCLA and Texas?

Can you justify this move or are you just pulling shit out of your ass?

+1

90% of the predictions on here seem to have zero rational thought behind them. Everyone in the t-17 had the same LSAT median as the prior year and pretty close to the same GPA median with the following exceptions (U of C +.8, UVA +.5, UT +.9, Cornell -.4). If there is some case to be made somewhere for changes in reputation rankings or expenditures for other schools that would impact their ranking, I'm willing to listen. All I have to go by is changes in the class profile, and according to that, many of these predictions make no sense.

[rayiner]

Yes. That's one of the biggest reasons (among many other reasons) why the USNWR's methodology is a bunch of horse shit. The fact that a 171 LSAT and a 2.8 GPA could even get you considered at a top 10 (Northwestern I am looking at YOU) is close to an ethical violation barring some sort of real, meaningful reason why that person dropped the ball on probably the most important aspect of college: grades, learning, succeeding academically.

LOL.

LSAT and GPA are used as predictors, not to reward people for studying hard. All the evidence I have suggests that splitters who get into NU do very well.

[stratocophic]

Yes. That's one of the biggest reasons (among many other reasons) why the USNWR's methodology is a bunch of horse shit. The fact that a 171 LSAT and a 2.8 GPA could even get you considered at a top 10 (Northwestern I am looking at YOU) is close to an ethical violation barring some sort of real, meaningful reason why that person dropped the ball on probably the most important aspect of college: grades, learning, succeeding academically.

LOL.

LSAT and GPA are used as predictors, not to reward people for studying hard. All the evidence I have suggests that splitters who get into NU do very well.

No no, you're totally missing the point. A Physical Education major from TTT State U is totes more legit than an electrical engineering or biochemistry major with a 3.0 from MIT or GT. It has nothing to do with the fact that schools would rather have the higher GPA solely for the purposes of the USNWR when given the choice between these two.

[entrechatsix]

Yes. That's one of the biggest reasons (among many other reasons) why the USNWR's methodology is a bunch of horse shit. The fact that a 171 LSAT and a 2.8 GPA could even get you considered at a top 10 (Northwestern I am looking at YOU) is close to an ethical violation barring some sort of real, meaningful reason why that person dropped the ball on probably the most important aspect of college: grades, learning, succeeding academically.

LOL.

LSAT and GPA are used as predictors, not to reward people for studying hard. All the evidence I have suggests that splitters who get into NU do very well.

No no, you're totally missing the point. A Physical Education major from TTT State U is totes more legit than an electrical engineering or biochemistry major with a 3.0 from MIT or GT. It has nothing to do with the fact that schools would rather have the higher GPA solely for the purposes of the USNWR when given the choice between these two.

i think the problem with that argument is that not every splitter went to a prestigious ug or was in a killer major. just like every reverse splitter wasn't a pottery major at TTT state

edit: i'm not exactly sure if that's what you're trying to say, i just don't understand why people always try to defend splitters that way