Top15-30 2011 US News Predicitons

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faith2202
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Re: Top15-30 2011 US News Predicitons

Postby faith2202 » Wed Mar 10, 2010 11:50 am

As employment prospects to count partially for the ratings, I would say that WUSTL's numbers may have gone down. However, compared to similarly-ranked schools, I have no hard data about how it measures up so it's very possible that other school's employment numbers have gone down just as much.

Georgetown on the other hand seems to be in danger here and it'll be big news if they drop out of T14 since they have bookended the T14 along with Yale for 10 or more years.

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Joga Bonito
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Re: Top15-30 2011 US News Predicitons

Postby Joga Bonito » Wed Mar 10, 2010 12:44 pm

JCougar wrote:A couple notes:

1) I think it's highly unlikely that WUSTL drops from 19th this year, as many have predicted. The schools aren't just ranked, they are scored (obviously), so distance between ranks isn't exactly equal. Here are the total scores for each of the following schools:

80 Duke
80 Northwestern
80 UVA
78 Cornell
75 Georgetown
74 UCLA
74 Texas
73 Vanderbilt
72 USC
69 WUSTL
66 BU
66 Emory
66 Minnesota
65 Indiana
65 Illinois
65 Notre Dame

There's actually a substantial gap between the scores of the top 18 schools and 20 and below. This gap is actually much larger than the gap between the T14 and everything else. To tie USC, the bottom of this group of schools, Emory would have to add 6 points to its overall score from last cycle or USC would have to drop some. WUSTL is beginning to bridge this gap and creep up to these four schools ranked just outside the T14. They still have some distance to make up, but they are also pulling away from the rest of the pack. And since there's no reason to believe that WUSTL will go down this cycle, we'd have to see any of the schools below it add 4 or more points to surpass it.

Similarly, this just shows how vulnerable Georgetown has actually become. Which brings up my second point: why are people so quick to acknowledge how including PT stats hurt GW while ignoring how they might have negatively affected Georgetown? How much did this change in how the data were processed bring down Georgetown, and how much has Georgetown done to bounce back? If anything, I think Georgetown's numbers will go up this year, rather than down, for the same reason people are expecting GW to bounce back.


WUSTL's probably not going to drop, I haven't seen any actual data to support the view that it will. Just anti-Wustl bias. Besides even if they did it wouldn't be far and who's going to past them. The only one with reall legitimate claim in that way is GW, but their part time stats are probably keeping them from doing that. BU would really be the only other contender and if they switched that wouldn't be a huge deal. Plus, like it or not WUSTL as an institution has been steadily on the rise.

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jay115
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Re: Top15-30 2011 US News Predicitons

Postby jay115 » Wed Mar 10, 2010 12:49 pm

faith2202 wrote:As employment prospects to count partially for the ratings, I would say that WUSTL's numbers may have gone down. However, compared to similarly-ranked schools, I have no hard data about how it measures up so it's very possible that other school's employment numbers have gone down just as much.

Georgetown on the other hand seems to be in danger here and it'll be big news if they drop out of T14 since they have bookended the T14 along with Yale for 10 or more years.


i will shit my pants if UCLA (or vandy bc i like vandy) moves into the T14

Bobushka22
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Re: Top15-30 2011 US News Predicitons

Postby Bobushka22 » Fri Mar 12, 2010 8:02 pm

A
Last edited by Bobushka22 on Sat Mar 27, 2010 11:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

gmdead
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Re: Top15-30 2011 US News Predicitons

Postby gmdead » Mon Mar 15, 2010 7:05 pm

notme wrote:This is year old memory, but I believe there were a couple of things. One was that they made unsolicited scholarship offers to individuals that hadn't even applied, based upon last minute (February ?) LSAT results. Not a big deal to me but it upset a lot of previously accepted applicants and made W & L look desperate. That may not have affected their standing - but I believe there was something else as well. You may find it in last years postings.


I like W&L and I think the new third year sounds really smart. They probably lost a lot of their scholarship candidates last year because of the rankings drop in April. Isn't it better to offer scholarships to good candidates with good numbers than take someone unqualified off the waitlist? Rankings are important, and W&L clearly made a smart choice by offering scholarships to people with high numbers. I don't think that qualifies as a scandal or makes them look desperate. I wouldn't want to go to a school that had a drop in rankings and did nothing to try to prevent it from dropping more. Plus, they were consistently in the top 25 for years--whose to say that won't happen to one of the schools that randomly shot up in the rankings last year? People are going to get bored with Notre Dame's new builing sooner or later...

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jsarna1
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Re: Top15-30 2011 US News Predicitons

Postby jsarna1 » Sat Mar 27, 2010 3:41 am

I could see UT moving up. They are cutting down the class sizes and they have made 15 new hires the past two years. They hired Matt Spitzer from USC and Cal Tech, 2 other law and economics scholars, Ronen Avraham and Abraham Wickelgren, both from Northwestern University, Ronald Mann (commercial law) from Columbia Law School and Robert Bone (civil procedure, intellectual property) from Boston University, among several others. Couple an increasingly better faculty with better student stats (plus a smaller class size), and UT could definitely join the T14.

I also could see ND moving up. The new law school has doubled the size of the building, and with a new dean, ND Law could rise. I don't think U of I will drop a whole lot, but IU will (or should).

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Muckduck
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Re: Top15-30 2011 US News Predicitons

Postby Muckduck » Sat Mar 27, 2010 4:07 am

I heard they were factoring "quantity of beer consumed," "games of softball played per capita," and "% of alums that contribute to the LS" (which is a good indicator of the quality of life while in LS) into the ranking system.

UVA moves up for sure...

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Panther7
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Re: Top15-30 2011 US News Predicitons

Postby Panther7 » Sat Mar 27, 2010 12:20 pm

Muckduck wrote:I heard they were factoring "quantity of beer consumed"


T14 here I come!

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Shaggier1
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Re: Top15-30 2011 US News Predicitons

Postby Shaggier1 » Sat Mar 27, 2010 1:11 pm

This has probably been mentioned so far, but I don't feel like combing over 10 pages so please forgive me if I am echoing others:

All of this talk of schools (UCLA, Vandy, USC, Texas, etc.. ) "breaking into the t14" is a bit nonsensical. After all, if any school other than the current t-14'ers comes in under #15, the t-14 will no longer exist. The whole point of the t-14 is that the same 14 schools have taken spots 1-14 since USNews rankings first came out. It a non t-14'er was to enter the t-14 then the streak would end.

And that is why the t-14 will be alive and kicking for years to come. USNews can't afford to lose its famous t-14--the centerpiece of its law-school ranking system. There will be several shakeups, but I don't see any new members in the near future.

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vanwinkle
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Re: Top15-30 2011 US News Predicitons

Postby vanwinkle » Sat Mar 27, 2010 2:11 pm

Shaggier1 wrote:This has probably been mentioned so far, but I don't feel like combing over 10 pages so please forgive me if I am echoing others:

All of this talk of schools (UCLA, Vandy, USC, Texas, etc.. ) "breaking into the t14" is a bit nonsensical. After all, if any school other than the current t-14'ers comes in under #15, the t-14 will no longer exist. The whole point of the t-14 is that the same 14 schools have taken spots 1-14 since USNews rankings first came out. It a non t-14'er was to enter the t-14 then the streak would end.

And that is why the t-14 will be alive and kicking for years to come. USNews can't afford to lose its famous t-14--the centerpiece of its law-school ranking system. There will be several shakeups, but I don't see any new members in the near future.

tl;dr version: It's T13 now.

td6624
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Re: Top15-30 2011 US News Predicitons

Postby td6624 » Sat Mar 27, 2010 5:02 pm

Shaggier1 wrote:This has probably been mentioned so far, but I don't feel like combing over 10 pages so please forgive me if I am echoing others:

All of this talk of schools (UCLA, Vandy, USC, Texas, etc.. ) "breaking into the t14" is a bit nonsensical. After all, if any school other than the current t-14'ers comes in under #15, the t-14 will no longer exist. The whole point of the t-14 is that the same 14 schools have taken spots 1-14 since USNews rankings first came out. It a non t-14'er was to enter the t-14 then the streak would end.

And that is why the t-14 will be alive and kicking for years to come. USNews can't afford to lose its famous t-14--the centerpiece of its law-school ranking system. There will be several shakeups, but I don't see any new members in the near future.


Isn't USNWR's role in it completely objective...?

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Borhas
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Re: Top15-30 2011 US News Predicitons

Postby Borhas » Sat Mar 27, 2010 8:46 pm

Shaggier1 wrote:This has probably been mentioned so far, but I don't feel like combing over 10 pages so please forgive me if I am echoing others:

All of this talk of schools (UCLA, Vandy, USC, Texas, etc.. ) "breaking into the t14" is a bit nonsensical. After all, if any school other than the current t-14'ers comes in under #15, the t-14 will no longer exist. The whole point of the t-14 is that the same 14 schools have taken spots 1-14 since USNews rankings first came out. It a non t-14'er was to enter the t-14 then the streak would end.

And that is why the t-14 will be alive and kicking for years to come. USNews can't afford to lose its famous t-14--the centerpiece of its law-school ranking system. There will be several shakeups, but I don't see any new members in the near future.


Northwestern and Cornell weren't in the T14 when the rankings first came out they were 16 and 15 respectively

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jay115
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Re: Top15-30 2011 US News Predicitons

Postby jay115 » Sat Mar 27, 2010 9:21 pm

Shaggier1 wrote:This has probably been mentioned so far, but I don't feel like combing over 10 pages so please forgive me if I am echoing others:

All of this talk of schools (UCLA, Vandy, USC, Texas, etc.. ) "breaking into the t14" is a bit nonsensical. After all, if any school other than the current t-14'ers comes in under #15, the t-14 will no longer exist. The whole point of the t-14 is that the same 14 schools have taken spots 1-14 since USNews rankings first came out. It a non t-14'er was to enter the t-14 then the streak would end.

And that is why the t-14 will be alive and kicking for years to come. USNews can't afford to lose its famous t-14--the centerpiece of its law-school ranking system. There will be several shakeups, but I don't see any new members in the near future.


I think your logic is nonsensical. The T14 would still exist as the top 14 schools as established by USWNR would be the top 14 schools, but I think you mean to say the label "T14" would no longer hold as much lay reputation as it currently does.

And to some extent, I think you're wrong. Past the T6, I think schools become rapidly regional, and the differences between the lower T14 and the lower T18 between regions becomes marginal in regards to exit options. I doubt judges and employers are likely to take someone at the bottom of Cornell's class over someone at the top of Texas' class just because Cornell is a T14 school - or else it's probably not an employer you'd want to work for.

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Hopefullawstudent
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Re: Top15-30 2011 US News Predicitons

Postby Hopefullawstudent » Sat Mar 27, 2010 10:09 pm

jay115 wrote:
Shaggier1 wrote:This has probably been mentioned so far, but I don't feel like combing over 10 pages so please forgive me if I am echoing others:

All of this talk of schools (UCLA, Vandy, USC, Texas, etc.. ) "breaking into the t14" is a bit nonsensical. After all, if any school other than the current t-14'ers comes in under #15, the t-14 will no longer exist. The whole point of the t-14 is that the same 14 schools have taken spots 1-14 since USNews rankings first came out. It a non t-14'er was to enter the t-14 then the streak would end.

And that is why the t-14 will be alive and kicking for years to come. USNews can't afford to lose its famous t-14--the centerpiece of its law-school ranking system. There will be several shakeups, but I don't see any new members in the near future.


I think your logic is nonsensical. The T14 would still exist as the top 14 schools as established by USWNR would be the top 14 schools, but I think you mean to say the label "T14" would no longer hold as much lay reputation as it currently does.

And to some extent, I think you're wrong. Past the T6, I think schools become rapidly regional, and the differences between the lower T14 and the lower T18 between regions becomes marginal in regards to exit options. I doubt judges and employers are likely to take someone at the bottom of Cornell's class over someone at the top of Texas' class just because Cornell is a T14 school - or else it's probably not an employer you'd want to work for.


titcr.

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T14_Scholly
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Re: Top15-30 2011 US News Predicitons

Postby T14_Scholly » Sat Mar 27, 2010 10:21 pm

Bobushka22 wrote:If it helps anybody with their rankings... I have a 174 LSAT (cancel, 163, 174... sick one on the cancel, crazy family issues on the 163... addendum included), 3.68 GPA (super weak undergrad. institution... hard course loads, but like that matters), mucho gringo male (if it matters... who knows , incredible soft factors (worked two and three jobs through school, heavy volunteer work, collegiate athlete, multiple leadership positions held, was homeless early during my undergrad experience) ... right now I am leaning heavily towards Notre Dame. Please note that I applied at the end of December and have significant financial restrictions. However, there are a couple similarly ranked institutions that I could just afford to attend, but Notre Dame has been the most professional and helpful of all the schools I've spoken with and seem to have incredible upside with national portability, new facilities, and a new Dean. I am just one student, but I am one student with some pretty sweet a-- numbers. Please note that I haven't committed yet and am still awaiting decisions and offers from a number of other top institutions. Here is my cycle thus far (with some schools left out in case an admissions person is trolling this bad boy):

ND- 25K/yr (stated they would make an adjustment based off of a 30k/yr offer I received from two other institutions in the top 25 and are putting through paper work so that I could receive a larger scholarship from a private donor. And... more than anything... they've been helpful.

Vandy - 20k/yr - totally not helpful... totally still would like to go to their school.... totally broke and have no quality cosigners (I may have resolved this problem with a $6,000 lottery ticket that allowed me to clear up some prior debts... still very iffy on being able to sign Grad Plus myself though as I had two student loans go four months late each in 2007... I didn't receive my statement, but they refuse to clear it from my file... jerks!)

Washington University in St. Louis - No news

USC - Accepted (no news on financial aid offering... should know in the next week)

UCLA - No news

Virginia - Waitlisted (but with a super awesome response to an inquiry about being waitlisted... basically got the vibe that I will be accepted off of it, but you all probably know I don't know for sure)

Michigan - Rejected

Columbia - First Reserve

Northwestern - no news

I applied to schools both in regions where I wanted to live and where I might be less inclined in the hope of negotiating for matching offers... if this put somebody on a waiting list... I am truly sorry. Basically, I am just trying to go to the best school that I can afford to go to. However, leaning strongly towards ND right now people. You have been warned.


Why did you tell us all of this in this thread? And why would it "help anybody with their rankings?"

Bobushka22
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Re: Top15-30 2011 US News Predicitons

Postby Bobushka22 » Sat Mar 27, 2010 11:46 pm

Meh... really don't know... supposed that it would help to show the type of students (numbers wise) that are considering the school. Earlier in the postings somebody noted that Notre Dame was attracting more number friendly applicants than in previous years as one of their arguments for them climbing the rankings. Way too much info though, you are right. I blame it on coffee. Anyways, edited it out as you will see. Have a good day and don't be a douche with the whole, I have a T-14 scholly... because that's pretty douchy (especially when you are commenting on a thread for the top schools right outside the T-14... like really, we don't believe you are going to a T-14 because why would you even be on this thread)... especially when you are trying to comment about how douchy other people are. Forgive me for my explicit ad hominem response to your implicit one. Merry Christmas.

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danquayle
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Re: Top15-30 2011 US News Predicitons

Postby danquayle » Sun Mar 28, 2010 4:05 am

Bobushka22 wrote:Meh... really don't know... supposed that it would help to show the type of students (numbers wise) that are considering the school. Earlier in the postings somebody noted that Notre Dame was attracting more number friendly applicants than in previous years as one of their arguments for them climbing the rankings. Way too much info though, you are right. I blame it on coffee. Anyways, edited it out as you will see. Have a good day and don't be a douche with the whole, I have a T-14 scholly... because that's pretty douchy (especially when you are commenting on a thread for the top schools right outside the T-14... like really, we don't believe you are going to a T-14 because why would you even be on this thread)... especially when you are trying to comment about how douchy other people are. Forgive me for my explicit ad hominem response to your implicit one. Merry Christmas.


Monstrous douche battle royale unfolding here.

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PDaddy
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Re: Top15-30 2011 US News Predicitons

Postby PDaddy » Sun Mar 28, 2010 5:58 am

14. GULC
14. UCLA
16. Vandy
17. Texas
18. USC
19. Minnesota
19. WUSTL
21. Emory
22. Notre Dame
23. BU
23. Illinois
25. Indiana
26. BC
27. Fordham
28. GWU
29. Iowa
30. W & L
30. W & M

31. UNC
32. UW-Seattle
32. Alabama
32. Ohio State
36. UC-Davis
37. Wisconsin
38. Georgia
39. Wake Forest
40. George Mason
41. UC-Hastings
41. Tulane
43. BYU
44. Arizona
45. Maryland
46. American
47. Colorado
47. Cardozo
49. Florida
50. Utah
51. UConn
52. Arizona State
53. Cincinnati
54. Case Western
55. Houston
56. Tennessee
57. Florida St.
58. Baylor
59. SMU
60. Kentucky
60. Brooklyn

runn3rs
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Re: Top15-30 2011 US News Predicitons

Postby runn3rs » Sun Mar 28, 2010 9:50 am

dood wrote:- Or even the judicial influence law firms (i.e. Mayer Brown's Supreme Court practice in DC - the best in the country)


blatant MB trolling. It isn't the best.

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tallboone
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Re: Top15-30 2011 US News Predicitons

Postby tallboone » Sun Mar 28, 2010 10:00 am

The schools in the "t-14" are significant, not the number 14. So it doesn't matter if georgetown moves up or down relative to UCLA, Texas, etc because it's still better recognized nationally. I'm sure some of you have read "One L" by Scott Turrow. While I wasn't that impressed with the book, I was struck by the fact that he mentions how everyone wants to go to the same elite group of schools due to the down economy, and that those schools just happen to include the t-14. the book was first published in the early 1970's, well before US News started creating group think.

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jay115
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Re: Top15-30 2011 US News Predicitons

Postby jay115 » Sun Mar 28, 2010 10:40 am

tallboone wrote:The schools in the "t-14" are significant, not the number 14. So it doesn't matter if georgetown moves up or down relative to UCLA, Texas, etc because it's still better recognized nationally. I'm sure some of you have read "One L" by Scott Turrow. While I wasn't that impressed with the book, I was struck by the fact that he mentions how everyone wants to go to the same elite group of schools due to the down economy, and that those schools just happen to include the t-14. the book was first published in the early 1970's, well before US News started creating group think.


Yet as several people have mentioned, the T14 was not comprised of the same 14 schools as it is now (eg. UCLA was in the T14 during the first publication of USWNR). Thus, two premises of your argument (one stated and established by the fact) contradict each other.

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Puffy
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Re: Top15-30 2011 US News Predicitons

Postby Puffy » Sun Mar 28, 2010 11:10 am

jay115 wrote:
tallboone wrote:The schools in the "t-14" are significant, not the number 14. So it doesn't matter if georgetown moves up or down relative to UCLA, Texas, etc because it's still better recognized nationally. I'm sure some of you have read "One L" by Scott Turrow. While I wasn't that impressed with the book, I was struck by the fact that he mentions how everyone wants to go to the same elite group of schools due to the down economy, and that those schools just happen to include the t-14. the book was first published in the early 1970's, well before US News started creating group think.


Yet as several people have mentioned, the T14 was not comprised of the same 14 schools as it is now (eg. UCLA was in the T14 during the first publication of USWNR). Thus, two premises of your argument (one stated and established by the fact) contradict each other.


All he's saying is that the elite group of top 14 schools is not a magazine invention but a more entrenched idea, at least as evidenced by some book by some guy.

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jay115
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Re: Top15-30 2011 US News Predicitons

Postby jay115 » Sun Mar 28, 2010 11:27 am

Puffy wrote:
jay115 wrote:
tallboone wrote:The schools in the "t-14" are significant, not the number 14. So it doesn't matter if georgetown moves up or down relative to UCLA, Texas, etc because it's still better recognized nationally. I'm sure some of you have read "One L" by Scott Turrow. While I wasn't that impressed with the book, I was struck by the fact that he mentions how everyone wants to go to the same elite group of schools due to the down economy, and that those schools just happen to include the t-14. the book was first published in the early 1970's, well before US News started creating group think.


Yet as several people have mentioned, the T14 was not comprised of the same 14 schools as it is now (eg. UCLA was in the T14 during the first publication of USWNR). Thus, two premises of your argument (one stated and established by the fact) contradict each other.


All he's saying is that the elite group of top 14 schools is not a magazine invention but a more entrenched idea, at least as evidenced by some book by some guy.


No, he's (she's?) saying that the T14 is an entrenched label with a composition of certain schools, therefore if the composition changes then it follows that the label "T14 school" will no longer hold as much weight because the composition of the T14 is essential to the weight of the label T14. I merely provided a counterexample to one of his/her suspect premises.

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ihurtmyselftoday
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Re: Top15-30 2011 US News Predicitons

Postby ihurtmyselftoday » Sun Mar 28, 2010 11:28 am

Shaggier1 wrote:This has probably been mentioned so far, but I don't feel like combing over 10 pages so please forgive me if I am echoing others:


+1

GWU Admissions sent out an email to admitted students last week extending the seat deposit deadline from April 15th to May 1st.

Any thoughts on if this was done in anticipation of a ratings increase? I strongly suspect that's the case.

In other news, Georgetown's Dean of Admissions Andy Cornblatt claimed at the accepted students event that "People who were denied or waitlisted this year would have easily been accepted in previous cycles."

If so, stricter admissions standards this year may keep GULC ahead of UT/Vandy/UCLA. I don't anticipate there will be much change in the peer/judge review section of the methodology, and GULC owns those three in that category. The only chance for UT/UCLA to top Georgetown is by having stricter admissions standards and Dean Cornblatt may have put the kaibash on that. Vandy has a possible second way into the T14 with it's increased employment statistics in BIGLAW over last year. But will it be enough?

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tallboone
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Re: Top15-30 2011 US News Predicitons

Postby tallboone » Sun Mar 28, 2010 11:39 am

jay115 wrote:
Puffy wrote:
jay115 wrote:
tallboone wrote:The schools in the "t-14" are significant, not the number 14. So it doesn't matter if georgetown moves up or down relative to UCLA, Texas, etc because it's still better recognized nationally. I'm sure some of you have read "One L" by Scott Turrow. While I wasn't that impressed with the book, I was struck by the fact that he mentions how everyone wants to go to the same elite group of schools due to the down economy, and that those schools just happen to include the t-14. the book was first published in the early 1970's, well before US News started creating group think.


Yet as several people have mentioned, the T14 was not comprised of the same 14 schools as it is now (eg. UCLA was in the T14 during the first publication of USWNR). Thus, two premises of your argument (one stated and established by the fact) contradict each other.


All he's saying is that the elite group of top 14 schools is not a magazine invention but a more entrenched idea, at least as evidenced by some book by some guy.


No, he's (she's?) saying that the T14 is an entrenched label with a composition of certain schools, therefore if the composition changes then it follows that the label "T14 school" will no longer hold as much weight because the composition of the T14 is essential to the weight of the label T14. I merely provided a counterexample to one of his/her suspect premises.


all i'm saying is that the number of elite law schools in the country with national reach is 14. it doesn't matter where us news ranks the schools in any particular year. thus, if ucla/texas/vandy make it into the "t-14", it won't matter to anyone except those who live and die by the us news rankings. if georgetown or cornell falls to 15 or 16, it will still be a more prestigious school than ucla/texas/vandy.




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