Top15-30 2011 US News Predicitons Forum

[09042014]

Random question: Why isn't UNC-Chapel Hill ranked higher than mid 30s?

Ever hear of NC big law? That's your answer.

[letsdoit1982]

Applied to Illinois, then I started reading on TLS that it was going to drop significantly - how big of a drop does everyone think it is going to take this year?

Second of all, does everyone thing W&L is going to drop out of the top 30 this year? - its tethering on the brink

If their 3L program works out they could fly up on the peer/judge evaluation or it could backfire, who knows.

I hope their 3L program works out, its the only reason I am interested in them - i think its just the sort of thing that Law schools need

I still don't understand why Illinois is expected to drop. US News is NOT going to factor in the scandal.

[goosey]

I disagree with the low rankings 27/28 for GWU.

GWU is a T-20 school, on par with BU and UMinn, they just got boned by the new part-time rankings, and they nearly cut the program in half to compensate for it. GWU will be at least 23. Irvine will bump W&L Alabama and UNC back. If UCLA were ever to become 14, this would be the year with the statistic hit GULC took from the same PT thing that wrecked gwu. WUSTL will drop back about 2, and BC will move up to 23/24. ND will move up 1 spot.

Wait, can they rank Irvine before the school finishes provisional accreditation? I was under the impression that it took more than one year.

Fordham did nothing to game the rankings. I hope we won't be punished for it.

+1.

because if they drop, it will likely not be a good thing for applicants such as myself that would benefit from them taking people they like but dont have the numbers.

[dood]

...

[danquayle]

ND is a toss up. But they're religious approach to the law/location hurts them big time if you ask me.

I agree with you about ND's rankings being a toss up, but after I've done a ton of research on the school and have spoken to a chunk of students and professors, I'm curious what you mean to the religious approach to the law. Plus, location? Cornell?

Cornell's location hurts it big time as well. If Cornell swapped locations with Forham, Cornell would be ranked in the top 5 (slightly exaggerating, but not by much). As it is, if it comes down to Cornell or UCLA for me - I am picking UCLA no questions asked. Why? A few reasons, but location is very close to being the top reason.

To learn more about ND's religious approach to the law, just click around their website. It isn't too hard to find the video of the dean basically describing ND's inextricable blend of law and religion. Power to them. For many, it's the right approach to the law. It may in fact be the superior approach. But as far as selectivity goes, and attracting the most competitive (by the numbers) applicant pool possible, this approach to the law turns away MANY applicants. South Bend is also a major turn off, even thought the campus is itself nice and the school prestigious in its own right.

-HL

Edit: Keep in mind that I am coming out of Hyde Park - home to the University of Chicago. I know a thing or two about how a school's location affects the applications it receives. In the mid-1970s things were so bad at U of C that they were letting in people with SATs in the 1100-1200 range, and the school even tried to move locations to Colorado or California!

Location matters for sure. That's why Texas won't ever crack the T14. That's why GWU can hover around T20. Location is a huge factor. If the world survives for another 20-30 years (I doubt it, either nuclear war or 2012 is gonna end civilization as we know it), I think traditional T45-T20 schools located in NY, DC will steady rise in rankings, but T45-T20 schools like ND won't.

Seriously with Texas? Texas is a massive state and growing. UT owns the entire state and places pretty well throughout the South.. I'd be surprised if it DIDN'T crack the top T-14. The population is shifting south and west in this country, and so eventually too will academic institutions. It's the same reason Emory's ascendancy doesn't surprise me. Georgia is booming, and Emory is going to place well in states like Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina and Florida.

[vanwinkle]

Location matters for sure. That's why Texas won't ever crack the T14. That's why GWU can hover around T20. Location is a huge factor. If the world survives for another 20-30 years (I doubt it, either nuclear war or 2012 is gonna end civilization as we know it), I think traditional T45-T20 schools located in NY, DC will steady rise in rankings, but T45-T20 schools like ND won't.

Seriously with Texas? Texas is a massive state and growing. UT owns the entire state and places pretty well throughout the South.. I'd be surprised if it DIDN'T crack the top T-14. The population is shifting south and west in this country, and so eventually too will academic institutions. It's the same reason Emory's ascendancy doesn't surprise me. Georgia is booming, and Emory is going to place well in states like Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina and Florida.

Yeah, pretty much. There are a lot of people with great stats who are choosing UT because it places well in the south and the south is where a lot of jobs are right now and into the near future. If anything UT's location should be viewed as an asset, especially given how few other schools it has to compete with; its main competition for jobs in the south, including Texas, is UVA.

Cornell has to compete with, what, CLS, NYU, and all the kids at the other T14s trying to go to the NYC market? UT has to compete with SMU and Baylor, and they don't even come close.

[Stringer Bell]

UT has to compete with SMU and Baylor, and they don't even come close.

Blatant anti-UH trolling

[TTTennis]

Location matters for sure. That's why Texas won't ever crack the T14. That's why GWU can hover around T20. Location is a huge factor. If the world survives for another 20-30 years (I doubt it, either nuclear war or 2012 is gonna end civilization as we know it), I think traditional T45-T20 schools located in NY, DC will steady rise in rankings, but T45-T20 schools like ND won't.

What does this say about Iowa and its future ranking?

[letsdoit1982]

Location matters for sure. That's why Texas won't ever crack the T14. That's why GWU can hover around T20. Location is a huge factor. If the world survives for another 20-30 years (I doubt it, either nuclear war or 2012 is gonna end civilization as we know it), I think traditional T45-T20 schools located in NY, DC will steady rise in rankings, but T45-T20 schools like ND won't.

What does this say about Iowa and its future ranking?

I still don't understand why Iowa is ranked so high in the first place.

[dood]

...

[redginseng]

And note I'm not saying GWU is a better school. I find it difficult to even define "better". But in general, I sincerely believe a school like Texas will always remain a "secondary" school targeted at a secondary market - and for that reason will never move from where it is to crack the T14. While a school like GWU will steadily increase in rankings (and as admitted, perhaps only by sheer virtue of it's location). Note I'm not even trying to say GWU will crack the T14; all I'm saying is that location matters ALOT and schools located in NYC and DC will generally move up, rather than down

Location certainly matters.

However, that's not stopping Yale becoming the number one law school in the nation.
What about Harvard's location? What's so important Boston?

Michigan, Duke?

These are all higher ranked than most schools in NYC and DC. As long as the school can place its graduates into these markets, location wouldn't be a deciding factor.

NY and DC locations help schools. And that's why there are so many of them in NYC and DC. All those schools are benefiting from their locations, which cancels it out. NYU is NYU because it's a good school but NYLS is T4 because it's not as good as NYU even though it's located in NY.

[DoubleChecks]

Texas is a massive state and growing.

True.

UT owns the entire state and places pretty well throughout the South.

Also true.

The population is shifting south and west in this country, and so eventually too will academic institutions.

Yes.

But it has nothing to do with the population shifting, especially if you think about what portion of the population is moving. Academics plays a large role in school prestige, though it is ultimately heavily influenced by the traditional twin powers of big government and big business - i.e. the two markets that lawyers (and especially the most "powerful" firms) cater to.

Examples:
- Obviously NYC law firms catering to the financial and corporate cornerstones of our society (i.e.the entire V10)
- The big "hired guns" of political lobbying located on K St, DC (i.e. Patton Boggs)
- Or even the judicial influence law firms (i.e. Mayer Brown's Supreme Court practice in DC - the best in the country)

These firms and practices draw the best lawyers to the area, and as a secondary result, law schools benefit from the professors who decide to stay. Texas will never get these professors - the ones who are the leaders in their perspective areas of law.

Take a look at Wiki's page on GWU Law (or Gtown) and the biographies of the "Notable Faculty". All these professors came to DC because they were called on as authorities in their perspective fields - whether it be human rights, international trade policy, intellectual property, Supreme Court Constitutional Law practice, even the Clinton impeachment (Jonathan Turley), etc. Though it's kind of sad that GWU can't draw professors like HYS - simply based on the name of our school. But the fact is GWU plays this to its advantage, something Texas or ND cannot do.

And note I'm not saying GWU is a better school. I find it difficult to even define "better". But in general, I sincerely believe a school like Texas will always remain a "secondary" school targeted at a secondary market - and for that reason will never move from where it is to crack the T14. While a school like GWU will steadily increase in rankings (and as admitted, perhaps only by sheer virtue of it's location). Note I'm not even trying to say GWU will crack the T14; all I'm saying is that location matters ALOT and schools located in NYC and DC will generally move up, rather than down.

no idea if Texas will crack the T14. i think it will soon, because big energy is here and ITE, big energy is one of the few "staples" that remain strong. that and a robust (by robust i mean relatively stable) housing market left it pretty unscathed on that front.

the problem i have will swallowing, however, isnt that UT will or will not break into the T14 now, but that UCLA, for some reason, will outplace it ITE. i just dont see that.

[savagecheater]

what's the legitimate probability of W&L holding a place T30? I'm kind of concerned about this.

[forty-two]

what's the legitimate probability of W&L holding a place T30? I'm kind of concerned about this.

+1

It was in the top 20 just a few years ago.

[ruleser]

15. UCLA
16. Texas
17. Vanderbilt
18. USC
19. Emory
20. WashU
21. Notre Dame
22. BU
23. Minnesota
24. BC
25. Illinois
26. Indiana
27. GWU
28. Fordham
29. Iowa
30. W&M

There will be ties, of course, but I just ignored this in my ranking list.

This is not talking about my preferences, but I think UCLA will drop, maybe even head toward being just a T20 - it's not just the tuition, I met a UCLA undergrad today who said they would not even consider going to law school there, because of the cuts they can't even get any classes, never mind tuition bumping and bumping.

So I say maybe
15 TX
16 Vandy
17 UCLA
18 USC

Also I'd expect Irvine to have a tough time going forward - their original plan was full-tuition schols for the first three classes, they already had to cut to 1/2 schol for year 2. Slightly beyond the scope of tt, expect UCD/UCH to drop. Berkeley will be the biggest question - it may maintain - or will it?

[Rowinguy2009]

what's the legitimate probability of W&L holding a place T30? I'm kind of concerned about this.

+1

It was in the top 20 just a few years ago.

The 30 spot they are holding now seems to be the lowest they have been in a very long time. Maybe the 3rd year program is really just killing them, but I think they are gonna raise at least a couple spots this year. I see them at like a 28 or 27.

[charlesjd]

Illinois is going to drop also. Major cuts in spending. The three U of I campuses did not get 93% of their state funding. Furlough days are occurring (i don't know about graduate and law), cuts in just about everything.

Illinois has problems obviously.

Thank you Illinois government.

[faceman9000]

Minnesota will not drop. The yield problem would have been accounted for in last year's rankings. However, instead of dropping (like it had the year prior), it regained the #20 spot...where it will remain (or take #19 alone)

[Shot007]

what's the legitimate probability of W&L holding a place T30? I'm kind of concerned about this.

+1

It was in the top 20 just a few years ago.

The 30 spot they are holding now seems to be the lowest they have been in a very long time. Maybe the 3rd year program is really just killing them, but I think they are gonna raise at least a couple spots this year. I see them at like a 28 or 27.

These are the rankings for W&L over the past 10 USNews Rankings
2000 20.0
2001 20.5
2002 19.5
2003 19.5 <---High
2004 24.5
2005 22.5
2006 23.5
2007 26.0
2008 25.0
2009 30.0

So it started off at 20.0 and last year its at 30, this is school is on the decline...

[charlesjd]

what's the legitimate probability of W&L holding a place T30? I'm kind of concerned about this.

+1

It was in the top 20 just a few years ago.

The 30 spot they are holding now seems to be the lowest they have been in a very long time. Maybe the 3rd year program is really just killing them, but I think they are gonna raise at least a couple spots this year. I see them at like a 28 or 27.

These are the rankings for W&L over the past 10 USNews Rankings
2000 20.0
2001 20.5
2002 19.5
2003 19.5 <---High
2004 24.5
2005 22.5
2006 23.5
2007 26.0
2008 25.0
2009 30.0

So it started off at 20.0 and last year its at 30, this is school is on the decline...

Hence why it they have free apps, trying to attract higher applicants???

[daddymike]

UNC was at 38 last year and is at 30 this year.
People seem to forget that North Carolina has a huge financial sector... second largest in the country if I am not mistaken. While Duke is just down the street and no doubt provides for heavy competition, keep in mind that UNC is getting a new law building. This will almost certainly make it climb up a few notches. The biggest problem is the state mandated 75% in-state residency requirement of the student body. Either way, I can only see UNC climb higher, not lower.

Also, Iowa is getting a new Dean for next year. A positive move. The only drawback to Iowa is that the law school seriously lacks any conservative professors. I am a liberal, but I feel that a school should be balanced in the sense that I want to be able to understand all points of view. As a state school (that should represent the view of the community as a whole), they certainly need to hire new faculty with a different outlook. Nevertheless, people have to keep in mind that Iowa has averaged a ranking of 20 in the last twenty years or so, with last year being the lowest at 27. I really can't see them moving any which way but up for 2011.

[jay115]

UNC was at 38 last year and is at 30 this year.
People seem to forget that North Carolina has a huge financial sector... second largest in the country if I am not mistaken. While Duke is just down the street and no doubt provides for heavy competition, keep in mind that UNC is getting a new law building. This will almost certainly make it climb up a few notches. The biggest problem is the state mandated 75% in-state residency requirement of the student body. Either way, I can only see UNC climb higher, not lower.

Also, Iowa is getting a new Dean for next year. A positive move. The only drawback to Iowa is that the law school seriously lacks any conservative professors. I am a liberal, but I feel that a school should be balanced in the sense that I want to be able to understand all points of view. As a state school (that should represent the view of the community as a whole), they certainly need to hire new faculty with a different outlook. Nevertheless, people have to keep in mind that Iowa has averaged a ranking of 20 in the last twenty years or so, with last year being the lowest at 27. I really can't see them moving any which way but up for 2011.

I lean liberal/libertarian, but I was surprised (I suppose I'll let everyone know whether the surprise is pleasant or not) on the number of prestigious conservative/libertarian professors at UCLA, including Volokh and Bainbridge. I suppose they're balanced by the ridiculous amount of CRS faculty whom obviously tilt left...

[Stringer Bell]

Minnesota will not drop. The yield problem would have been accounted for in last year's rankings. However, instead of dropping (like it had the year prior), it regained the #20 spot...where it will remain (or take #19 alone)

I don't think this is right. I believe the yield problem was from last year's cycle, correct? In that case the effects would materialize in the upcoming rankings.

[09042014]

Illinois is going to drop also. Major cuts in spending. The three U of I campuses did not get 93% of their state funding. Furlough days are occurring (i don't know about graduate and law), cuts in just about everything.

Illinois has problems obviously.

Thank you Illinois government.

According to Dean Pless the law school is more or less financially independent.

[jocelyne]

anyone know when the rankings will come out?