Legal Market Improving?

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Kobe_Teeth
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Legal Market Improving?

Postby Kobe_Teeth » Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:52 pm

http://www.law.com/jsp/article.jsp?id=1 ... s_Staffing

Thoughts?

Highlights:

"And that wasn't just because 2009 was behind them, but because it ultimately didn't turn out that bad."

"One area where firms might have to go back to the cost-cutting measures of 2009 is when it comes to equity partner ranks. The survey shows firms are happy with their associate ranks and may even grow them."

"According to the survey administered in the fourth quarter of 2009, the overall confidence index of managing partners is the highest it has been in two-and-a-half years and is back where it was in the third quarter of 2007. Citi attributes this rise in confidence to an expected rise in work demand. About 64 percent of the respondents said they expected demand to grow over the next 12 months and 23 percent said it would stay flat. The demand index, as Citi dubs it, is the highest it has been in two years. The majority of firm leaders said they expect an increase in billable hours in the next year."

"Citi's survey also shows firms don't expect to conduct any more layoffs, and 45 percent said they expect to hire associates. Indices for equity and non-equity partners as well as associates all broke into positive territory last quarter, which Citi said suggests flat or increasing headcount for the next 12 months."

"Slightly more than 50 percent said the legal market has improved in the last six months and 61 percent said it would grow somewhat stronger in the next six months."

martha_c
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Re: Legal Market Improving?

Postby martha_c » Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:59 pm

This can't possibly be true. According to most people on this forum, unless you're the top person at Yale, your job prospects are somewhere between awful and pathetic.

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dgouzoul
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Re: Legal Market Improving?

Postby dgouzoul » Fri Jan 22, 2010 7:11 pm

yeah this doesn't really jive with TLS pessimism

but i'll take it

MTaylor25
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Re: Legal Market Improving?

Postby MTaylor25 » Fri Jan 22, 2010 7:24 pm

martha_c wrote:This can't possibly be true. According to most people on this forum, unless you're the top person at Yale, your job prospects are somewhere between awful and pathetic.


LOL, so true. I am not w/ the majority on this forum regarding those opinions.

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hans3n
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Re: Legal Market Improving?

Postby hans3n » Fri Jan 22, 2010 7:36 pm

dgouzoul wrote:yeah this doesn't really jive with TLS pessimism

but i'll take it



The pessimism on TLS derived from many on this forum has never been the gospel. Ive never thought it to be biglaw or die, or even top 15 or bust, but that's just me. Some on here make it sound like most markets 3 years from now will be the same as they are today.

wocehtoom
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Re: Legal Market Improving?

Postby wocehtoom » Fri Jan 22, 2010 7:42 pm

The entire TLS community is rumor-hungry and hyperbole-driven. The legal market, like all other markets, didn't come crashing down in 08/09 as the chicken-littles of the world predicted and is now showing tentative signs of recovery. There's no reason to believe that the industry is now somehow permanently crippled, that a growing economy suddenly has no need for lawyers, or that you won't benefit from a law degree (especially over the course of your entire career).

By the time this year's incoming class graduates, these outdated posts will seem overly negative and misguided.

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wadeny
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Re: Legal Market Improving?

Postby wadeny » Fri Jan 22, 2010 10:56 pm

wocehtoom wrote:The entire TLS community is rumor-hungry and hyperbole-driven. The legal market, like all other markets, didn't come crashing down in 08/09 as the chicken-littles of the world predicted and is now showing tentative signs of recovery. There's no reason to believe that the industry is now somehow permanently crippled, that a growing economy suddenly has no need for lawyers, or that you won't benefit from a law degree (especially over the course of your entire career).

By the time this year's incoming class graduates, these outdated posts will seem overly negative and misguided.


I feel the general consensus on TLS is not so much that the legal industry is permanently crippled, but that it's a bigger risk to take on more debt given the tough job market. LS debt has always been an issue, but more people (applicants, current LS students, etc) are exercising caution for good reason - no one really knows what things will be like in the years to come. While it probably won't be as bad as it is now in another couple years, it is a little idealistic to think that the good times will be rolling back again anytime soon. And, I think it's safe to say that tuitions will keep rising, regardless of any improved (or worsened) market conditions.

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Doritos
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Re: Legal Market Improving?

Postby Doritos » Fri Jan 22, 2010 10:57 pm

dgouzoul wrote:yeah this doesn't really jive with TLS pessimism

but i'll take it



It's funny because JDUnderground thinks TLS is naive and optimistic. It really doesn't matter though because the apocalypse is coming in 2012. If you survive the initial judgment you will find yourself in a lawless wasteland where justice is a 12 gauge and that fancy harvard law education is useless.

Kobe_Teeth
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Re: Legal Market Improving?

Postby Kobe_Teeth » Fri Jan 22, 2010 11:53 pm

wadeny wrote:
wocehtoom wrote:The entire TLS community is rumor-hungry and hyperbole-driven. The legal market, like all other markets, didn't come crashing down in 08/09 as the chicken-littles of the world predicted and is now showing tentative signs of recovery. There's no reason to believe that the industry is now somehow permanently crippled, that a growing economy suddenly has no need for lawyers, or that you won't benefit from a law degree (especially over the course of your entire career).

By the time this year's incoming class graduates, these outdated posts will seem overly negative and misguided.


I feel the general consensus on TLS is not so much that the legal industry is permanently crippled, but that it's a bigger risk to take on more debt given the tough job market. LS debt has always been an issue, but more people (applicants, current LS students, etc) are exercising caution for good reason - no one really knows what things will be like in the years to come. While it probably won't be as bad as it is now in another couple years, it is a little idealistic to think that the good times will be rolling back again anytime soon. And, I think it's safe to say that tuitions will keep rising, regardless of any improved (or worsened) market conditions.



Yea, but it seems to be getting back to the point where if you do well you will be employed. That's all I ask.

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PDaddy
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Re: Legal Market Improving?

Postby PDaddy » Sat Jan 23, 2010 12:12 am

martha_c wrote:This can't possibly be true. According to most people on this forum, unless you're the top person at Yale, your job prospects are somewhere between awful and pathetic.


The respondent above fails to consider the possibility that:

a) The sample referenced (TLS) is unrepresentative
b) The TLS posters lack the expertise to discuss such issues with authority
c) He is misinterpreting the views of the TLS posters
d) The views he has sampled are based on inaccurrate or outdated data
e) All of the above

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dgouzoul
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Re: Legal Market Improving?

Postby dgouzoul » Sat Jan 23, 2010 11:59 am

Doritos wrote:
dgouzoul wrote:yeah this doesn't really jive with TLS pessimism

but i'll take it



It's funny because JDUnderground thinks TLS is naive and optimistic. It really doesn't matter though because the apocalypse is coming in 2012. If you survive the initial judgment you will find yourself in a lawless wasteland where justice is a 12 gauge and that fancy harvard law education is useless.



i lol'd

PoliticalJunkie
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Re: Legal Market Improving?

Postby PoliticalJunkie » Sat Jan 23, 2010 12:25 pm

martha_c wrote:This can't possibly be true. According to most people on this forum, unless you're the top person at Yale, your job prospects are somewhere between awful and pathetic.


Of course, because the average 20y/o TLSr knows it all!!

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Bronte
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Re: Legal Market Improving?

Postby Bronte » Sat Jan 23, 2010 10:51 pm

PDaddy wrote:
martha_c wrote:This can't possibly be true. According to most people on this forum, unless you're the top person at Yale, your job prospects are somewhere between awful and pathetic.



The respondent above fails to consider the possibility that:

a) The sample referenced (TLS) is unrepresentative
b) The TLS posters lack the expertise to discuss such issues with authority
c) He is misinterpreting the views of the TLS posters
d) The views he has sampled are based on inaccurrate or outdated data
e) All of the above

PoliticalJunkie wrote:
martha_c wrote:This can't possibly be true. According to most people on this forum, unless you're the top person at Yale, your job prospects are somewhere between awful and pathetic.


Of course, because the average 20y/o TLSr knows it all!!


Are you guys both seriously not realizing that the post your referencing was sarcastic?

Pearalegal
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Re: Legal Market Improving?

Postby Pearalegal » Sat Jan 23, 2010 10:57 pm

Bronte wrote:
Are you guys both seriously not realizing that the post your referencing was sarcastic?


I think the second quote you put up there might have realized what was going on...but I don't think the first got it.

Xiaolong
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Re: Legal Market Improving?

Postby Xiaolong » Sat Jan 23, 2010 11:15 pm

martha_c wrote:This can't possibly be true. According to most people on this forum, unless you're the top person at Yale, your job prospects are somewhere between awful and pathetic.


I absolutely agree with this. I even hear some people claim that students are no longer hired at all - only tenured faculty from HYS have a shot at an SA ITE.

ughOSU
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Re: Legal Market Improving?

Postby ughOSU » Sun Jan 24, 2010 12:00 am

The author seems to characterize what the lawyers are telling him as "Confidence". I would characterize it as measured optimism. I'll take that though.

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beesknees
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Re: Legal Market Improving?

Postby beesknees » Sun Jan 24, 2010 12:10 am

.
Last edited by beesknees on Sun Dec 05, 2010 1:00 am, edited 2 times in total.

Kobe_Teeth
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Re: Legal Market Improving?

Postby Kobe_Teeth » Sun Jan 24, 2010 12:06 pm

ughOSU wrote:The author seems to characterize what the lawyers are telling him as "Confidence". I would characterize it as measured optimism. I'll take that though.



Yea, its called a "Confidence Index." He measures "confidence" and on his scale it hits "measured optimism." Did you read it?

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TTH
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Re: Legal Market Improving?

Postby TTH » Sun Jan 24, 2010 12:26 pm

"2009 wasn't so bad" means that firms were able to keep profits per partner where they wanted it by laying off droves of associates. Things are starting to thaw a bit, but revenues aren't going to increase substantially because of alternative fee arrangements, and for the next few years, new law grads are going to have to contend with the glut of unemployed/underemployed associates from the classes of 07 08 09.

The sky isn't falling, but it ain't clear and sunny either.

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JazzOne
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Re: Legal Market Improving?

Postby JazzOne » Sun Jan 24, 2010 12:34 pm

Xiaolong wrote:
martha_c wrote:This can't possibly be true. According to most people on this forum, unless you're the top person at Yale, your job prospects are somewhere between awful and pathetic.


I absolutely agree with this. I even hear some people claim that students are no longer hired at all - only tenured faculty from HYS have a shot at an SA ITE.

Xie xie

ughOSU
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Re: Legal Market Improving?

Postby ughOSU » Sun Jan 24, 2010 4:39 pm

Kobe_Teeth wrote:
ughOSU wrote:The author seems to characterize what the lawyers are telling him as "Confidence". I would characterize it as measured optimism. I'll take that though.



Yea, its called a "Confidence Index." He measures "confidence" and on his scale it hits "measured optimism." Did you read it?

lol glanced through it and read what the partners were saying... missed the so-called "confidence index".

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JMBrown32
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Re: Legal Market Improving?

Postby JMBrown32 » Mon Jan 25, 2010 12:29 pm

I don't know if the legal market is improving or just starting to stabilize. It appears most of the layoffs are behind us, but most of the top firms have a back log of deferred associates to place still, so I imagine hiring will still be pretty bad this year. Also, there seems to be some pretty compelling evidence to suggest that the pending option ARM resets will lead to another wave of foreclosures close to what we saw in 08 when the sub-primes struck, which will invariably have a negative impact on the economy and market confidence.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/24/real_es ... /index.htm

ughOSU
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Re: Legal Market Improving?

Postby ughOSU » Mon Jan 25, 2010 12:36 pm

JMBrown32 wrote:I don't know if the legal market is improving or just starting to stabilize.

stabilizing = improving

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JMBrown32
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Re: Legal Market Improving?

Postby JMBrown32 » Mon Jan 25, 2010 12:46 pm

ughOSU wrote:
JMBrown32 wrote:I don't know if the legal market is improving or just starting to stabilize.

stabilizing = improving


lol true. My point was I don't think hiring will be too much better than it was last year (read: abysmal). Maybe a little better, but not much.

09042014
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Re: Legal Market Improving?

Postby 09042014 » Mon Jan 25, 2010 12:55 pm

JMBrown32 wrote:
ughOSU wrote:
JMBrown32 wrote:I don't know if the legal market is improving or just starting to stabilize.

stabilizing = improving


lol true. My point was I don't think hiring will be too much better than it was last year (read: abysmal). Maybe a little better, but not much.


I think this years SA class will be hit hardest because they are going to be competing with class of 2010 who will be differed a year. Instead of hiring a big class of 2011 and differing them a year, they will just hire less at 2L OCI.




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